Four Young MLB Hitters Showing Encouraging Signs In 2024
Image credit: Colton Cowser (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
It’s easier to react to pitching changes in small samples because there’s a natural window between starts and it’s quicker to see how “true talent level” might change from appearance to appearance. Hitting is more complicated because most stats take longer to stabilize.
That doesn’t mean we can’t start noticing some encouraging changes under the hood. Below are four young MLB hitters showing positive signs through two and a half weeks of play in 2024.
Note: stats are from entering Monday, April 15.
Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles
Baltimore’s well-documented talented pipeline of position players includes some top prospects who can sometimes even feel overlooked. Cowser fits that description, through no fault of his own. The No. 5 overall pick in the 2021 draft exploded onto the scene in 2022 with a 184 wRC+ at Double-A. Before then, he was viewed more as a table-setter who could grow into more power.
Cowser made it to the majors in July last season, but he only lasted 77 plate appearances while showing some concerning passivity. His 35% swing rate through his first seven games would’ve ranked dead last among qualified hitters. There are good bats at the bottom of that leaderboard, but Cowser wasn’t showing the ability to barrel up the baseball.
He showed more aggressiveness as he settled in and that has carried over into 2024:
Cowser is still flashing his trademark selectiveness this season, and he’s been locked in doing damage.
The 24-year-old has a 96th percentile barrel rate and is in the 97th percentile or better for most batted-ball metrics. After not starting any of Baltimore’s first four games of the year, Cowser has played in seven straight, including against a tough lefty in DL Hall on Saturday.
Cowser’s .500 BABIP won’t last much longer, but he’s making enough hard contact that, combined with his elite plate discipline, will continue leading to overall success. With Cowser locked into an everyday role and Jackson Holliday debuting in the majors this past week, Baltimore looks well-positioned to make a run at defending its AL East crown.
Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees
Volpe spoke openly this spring about creating a flatter bat path, and after almost three weeks of action, the results are exciting.
It’s been a small sample so far, but his launch angle has been tighter in 2024:
Volpe is no longer chasing as many pitches, and he’s improved his contact rate from 74% in ‘23 to 90% this season. His strikeout rate has been cut in half, while his walk rate has doubled.
A season ago, Volpe was pulling close to half his batted balls. In his sophomore campaign, he’s going up the middle or to right field almost 80% of the time.
This means that Volpe’s barrel% has taken a bit of a hit, and he isn’t performing better than last year in the power department. He’s a more well-rounded hitter, though, and he recently started leading off in front of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.
As a former top prospect in the minors, Volpe was at his best when making good contact and getting on base. It appears he’s already made his first major league adjustment despite not turning 23 until the end of this month.
Logan O’Hoppe, C, Angels
Coming up through the minors, O’Hoppe was seen as an offensive catcher with a rare balance of contact, patience and power. In 447 plate appearances at Double-A in 2022, he slashed .283/.416/.544 with a 15.7 BB% and a 16.6 K%, which meant he was living up to his scouting report. That was the summer he was dealt from the Phillies to the Angels in exchange for Brandon Marsh. After the trade, O’Hoppe posted a .473 OBP and made it to the majors for a cup of coffee that September.
He began 2023 with the Angels and instantly popped, smacking four homers with an .886 OPS across his first 59 PAs of the year. He then suffered a worrisome labrum injury but returned in August and, this time, hit 10 homers in just 140 PAs, although he didn’t get on base at the same rate he was before the injury.
These are small samples at the big league level, which is why it’s been so rewarding to see him hit the ground running yet again. Through 51 PAs, he’s batting .364/.451/.523 with improved plate discipline. A red-hot Statcast page backs up that production. According to Derek Carty’s THE BAT X, only 52 hitters in baseball project for a higher wOBA the rest of the season.
From a fantasy perspective, the counting stats haven’t been there outside this dead-center grand slam. This season, Ron Washington has mostly hit him in the bottom third of the Angels’ lineup. With Brandon Drury, Mickey Moniak and Aaron Hicks as the primary obstacles in front of him, there’s a potential runway for him to usurp.
Christopher Morel, 3B, Cubs
Perhaps no hitter has improved his strike zone awareness more this season than Morel. A volatile bat with power, the 25-year-old has been known for his streakiness during his time in the majors.
So far in 2024, he’s flashing the ability to make better swing decisions both inside and outside the strike zone:
The result has been a drop in strikeout rate from 31% in 2023 to 17.7% this year.
The fact that Morel has gone through similar stretches with this Z-Oswing% before shows that it could simply be an early-season hot streak, as opposed to happening in the middle of the summer when it’s less noticeable. However, if a full-season Morel breakout were to happen, it would include swing decisions like this.
Morel’s actual results aren’t as strong as the other players highlighted in this piece, but he’s underperforming his expected SLG by 75 points. He’s still pulling fly balls at the same frequency as last year, and his barrel rate remains in the 79th percentile. Morel’s long-term defensive home remains in the air, but with Seiya Suzuki recently placed on the IL, Chicago will be as incentivized as ever to keep his bat in the lineup.
