Five Storylines To Watch In The Division Series

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The Division Series starts today with all eight remaining teams in action. The Phillies and Braves kick off a four-game slate at 1:07 pm ET, followed by Mariners-Astros at 3:37, Guardians-Yankees at 7:37 and Padres-Dodgers at 9:37.

After a memorable Wild Card Series, here are the top storylines to watch for in the Division Series.

1. Can the Padres finally get past the Dodgers? 

The matchup between the Padres and Dodgers has been less of a rivalry and more of an annual beatdown in recent years. The Dodgers are 144-73 against the Padres since 2011, a .644 win percentage. That includes a 14-5 record this year in which they outscored the Padres (gulp) 109-47. The only other time these two teams met in the postseason, the Dodgers swept the Padres out of the 2020 NLDS. It’s all a long way of saying the Dodgers own the Padres, much to the chagrin of those south of San Clemente on the 5 freeway.

So, will this time be any different? The Dodgers are rested coming off a bye and have their starting pitching lined up exactly how they want. The Padres are coming off a cross country trip after an emotional Wild Card Series win against the Mets and will start RHP Mike Clevinger, who has been inconsistent in his return from Tommy John surgery, in Game 1. Barring the extreme unlikelihood the Padres sweep the Dodgers, the key for them will be to get the series to Game 4, where the Dodgers don’t have a clear starter and RHP Joe Musgrove would be lined up at home for San Diego. If the Padres can get it to that point, it’s the one game they’d have a clear advantage, likely pushing the series to a winner-take-all Game 5 or, potentially, finishing off an upset.

2. Will the Mariners magic continue? 

The Mariners had 38 comeback wins in the regular season, including 13 walkoff victories. That means 42% of their 90 wins this season were comebacks, and that doesn’t include their stunning rally to erase a seven-run deficit against the Blue Jays and win Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series.

What happens when a never-say-die team faces a club that suffocates opponents? We’re about to find out. The Astros led the American League with a 2.90 ERA and had four different starters post sub-3.00 ERAs if you include RHP Lance McCullers Jr. after his return from injury. Add in a bullpen that led the majors with a 2.80 ERA and received a late-season boost from electrifying rookie RHP Hunter Brown, and there’s not much give anywhere on the Astros staff.

The Astros went 12-7 against the Mariners this season, but in a scheduling oddity, the division rivals haven’t faced each other since July 31. That means the Astros haven’t faced the Mariners with RHP Luis Castillo in the rotation, making for a very different dynamic since the last time these two teams played. (By the same token, the Mariners haven’t faced the Astros with McCullers back in the rotation).

The Astros are the defending AL champions and have the best record in the league, and thus are rightly favored. But if the Mariners can keep the magic going against the Astros and their vaunted staff, it’ll be a sign there may not be anyone who can keep them down.

 

3. Which version of the Yankees will show up?

The Yankees have been a rolling Jekyll and Hyde production this season. They began the year 61-23, went 22-33 to watch their division lead shrink from 15.5 to 3.5 games, then finished the year 16-7 to pull away for the division title and avoid an epic collapse.

Injuries played an outsized part in the Yankees midseason struggles, and they’re hardly at full strength entering the ALDS. INF/OF Matt Carpenter (fractured foot) is set to return but will likely be limited to pinch-hitting duty, while INF DJ LeMahieu (toe) and OF Andrew Benintendi (broken hand) are uncertain for the series. RHP Clay Holmes (shoulder) is expected to be active, but he just received a cortisone shot last week and hasn’t pitched in two weeks. OF Giancarlo Stanton is healthy, but he’s hit just .165/.266/.367 since coming off the IL with an Achilles injury.

Of course, OF Aaron Judge put the team on his back and rendered most of the Yankees injury issues moot with his historic season this year. And for as much as the Guardians pitching staff is celebrated, the Yankees actually had a lower ERA (3.30) than the Guardians (3.46) this season despite playing their home games in a more hitter-friendly park.

The Yankees won five of six games against the Guardians this season and walloped Cleveland’s staff—including ace RHP Shane Bieber—in the playoffs just two years ago, so they’re hardly coming from a position of weakness. Still, Cleveland went an MLB-best 24-6 to close out the season, and if the Yankees aren’t their best selves, the Guardians have the horses to knock them out.

4. Can the Braves avoid an upset?

No team has won consecutive World Series titles since the 1998-2000 Yankees. No team has even been to consecutive World Series since the 2017-18 Dodgers. On paper, the defending champion Braves are in great shape. They have the best record in baseball since June 1 (78-34) and finished strong with a critical sweep of the Mets to overtake them in the NL East in the season’s final week.

At the same time, the Phillies have played the Braves tough all year. The Braves went 11-8 against the Phillies this season—a worse record than the Dodgers against the Padres and the Astros against the Mariners—and only outscored them 88-85. LHP Ranger Suarez, the Phillies Game 1 starter, may not have great name recognition, but in his last start against the Braves on Sept. 22, he shut them out over six innings en route to a 1-0 Phillies win. Suarez (5 GS, 3.21 ERA), RHP Zack Wheeler (3 GS, 2.70 ERA) and RHP Aaron Nola (5 GS, 3.67 ERA) all pitched well against the Braves this year, making for a potentially tougher series than expected for the defending champs.

5. Will the aces keep it up?

Pitching dominated the Wild Card Series, with Nola, Wheeler, Bieber, Castillo, Musgrove, RHP Yu Darvish and RHP Triston McKenzie all dealing to propel their teams to the Division Series. Now, add in RHP Justin Verlander, RHP Gerrit Cole, LHP Clayton Kershaw, LHP Max Fried, LHP Julio Urias, RHP Kyle Wright, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Logan Gilbert, LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Lance McCullers and potentially RHP Spencer Strider making their first postseason starts into the mix, and you have the potential for an epic pitcher’s duel almost every day.

The league-wide batting average this year was .243, the lowest average since the mound was lowered following the 1968 season. Nineteen different pitchers had ERAs below 3.00, compared to just 11 hitters who hit .300 or better.

That’s all to say pitchers have more or less owned the hitters across the league this year, and with the quality of arms in the postseason, it appears very likely that dominance will continue in the Division Series.