Five MLB Prospects Who Have Bounced Back In 2024
Image credit: Nick Gonzales (Mike Janes/Four Seam Images)
Development isn’t always linear. In the world of MLB prospects, things don’t always work out the way they’re supposed to or in the timeline you anticipate. Just when you think you have something figured out, you realize you don’t.
Every season top prospects underperform, sometimes it can happen for consecutive seasons before a player finally figures something out and then takes a big step forward. There are plenty of examples of top prospects who struggled and dropped in rankings only to recapture their prospect status in the future. Last season, it was players like Orelvis Martinez and Brady House who taught us to be patient.
Below, you’ll find five players all showing signs of rekindling their prospect pedigree early in 2024.
Zac Veen, OF, Rockies: After climbing into the Top 50 of the Top 100 prospects entering 2022, Veen has seen a string of unimpressive seasons and injury as he dropped off of Top 100 lists almost universally. Veen struggled to open 2023 as he played through a left wrist tendon injury that eventually required surgery. The problem beyond just the injury was Veen had been well below-average at Double-A dating back to the summer of 2022. Over Veen’s first 80 games at Double-A, he hit .196/.287/.277 with 16 extra-base hits over 80 games. Over his first 20 games of 2024, Veen is looking more like his pre-2022 self. He’s hitting .313/.418/.567 with nine extra-base hits and seven stolen bases on eight attempts. The quality of Veen’s at-bats have been noticeably better, and he’s showing the ability to hit for more impact than at any point in his career. His 90th percentile exit velocity of 104.1 mph points to a return to health, while his skill-based metrics like contact, approach and bat speed all grade out as average or better. Veen looks on the road to recovering his former high prospect status with further production.
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer currently holds the hopes of New England in his hands. After a forgettable 2023 marred by injury and ineffective play, Mayer looks like he’s in the midst of spinning a bounce-back campaign in 2024. Over his first 23 games of the season, Mayer is hitting .276/.314/.429 with two home runs and five stolen bases. While his slashline is just okay, Mayer’s underlying data is good. His 90th percentile EV of 106.5 is well above-average and unlike in 2023, the power looks to be coming with average or better plate skills across the board. If Mayer is able to keep up this momentum, he has the ability to reach Boston by the end of the summer.
Robert Hassell III, OF, Nationals: No player on this list has been written off more than Hassell. He hit .246/.340/.363 over 233 games split between 2022 and 2023. Despite his poor production, Hassell is just 22 and his darkest days seem to be behind him. Now 22 games and 100 plate appearances into 2024, Hassell is hitting .341/.434/.471 with a 20% strikeout rate and a 12% walk rate. While his underlying exit velocity data doesn’t point to added power, Hassell looks to be getting the most out of his contact. His .429 batting average on balls in play points to some regression potentially in store for Hassell. However, after two poor seasons, the early surge in 2024 is a welcomed sign for the outfielder.
Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B, Diamondbacks: It’s been a whirlwind six months for De Los Santos, who saw himself unprotected by the Diamondbacks in the Rule 5 draft, which allowed the Guardians to take a shot on him. Unfortunately, De Los Santos struggled in spring training, didn’t make the club and was returned to the D-backs before the beginning of the 2024 season. All this movement must have lit a fire underneath De Los Santos as he’s hit .375/.420/.712 with 10 home runs over 26 games as he paces non-Triple-A hitters in the home run department. Full transparency, De Los Santos is repeating Double-A and calls Amarillo, one of the friendliest hitter’s parks in the game, his home field. Under the hood, De Los Santos is still showing concerning plate approach numbers as his whiff rate is above 30% and his chase rate is above 33%—both are below-average numbers that point at struggles to come when De Los Santos is out of such a friendly run environment and familiar level.
Nick Gonzales, 2B, Pirates: At one point, Nick Gonzales was considered one of the best pure hitting prospects in the game. However, over the first 253 minor league games of Gonzales’ career, he struck out in 27.4% of his at-bats, a number not befitting a hitter with an advanced hit tool. Gonzales was viewed as a similar case to former Brewers top prospect Keston Hiura, a seemingly advanced college hitter whose skills didn’t hold up to the litmus test of the upper minors. Gonzales, despite making his debut with the Pirates in 2023, was viewed as system depth entering the season. However, over his first 28 games at Triple-A this season, Gonzales is showing the best combination of plate skills and impact of his career. He’s cut his strikeout rate to 17.2% and is producing his highest isolated slugging number since his professional debut in 2021. There are certainly some questionable numbers under the hood, as his .422 batting average on balls in play shows some potential regression. Still, despite this, his zone miss is down significantly year over year and he’s become a more aggressive swinger, looking to attack, moving away from the passive traits he started to display over the last few seasons. He’s also showing improved power with his 90th percentile exit velocity jumping over one mph year over year. It remains to be seen if this new plan of attack works long term for Gonzales, but the early returns are a welcomed sign.
