Fantasy Baseball: RoboScout Early 2024 Teaser

Triple-A started earlier than the other levels and so there is more data—and some of it is pertinent to redraft leagues too. Obviously, we’ve seen Jackson Holliday already called up. We also know about the stratospheric exploits of the other Norfolk Tides batters: Heston Kjerstad, Kyle Stowers, Coby Mayo, and Connor Norby. Sure enough, RoboScout views Jackson Holliday as the second-best hitter in Triple-A, Mayo fourth and Kjerstad fifth (with Norby and Stowers also in the Top 50).

The best hitter is James Wood of the Nationals who has continued his improved pitch recognition and hit tool we caught glimpses of in spring training into the early minor league season. With more walks than strikeouts, a 225 wRC+, two home runs and five stolen bases in only 53 plate appearances, RoboScout sees him as a .275/.365 25/20 hitter at peak. Expect him in the major leagues this year.

Joey Loperfido with his 10 home runs for the Astros affiliate finds himself in the top seven, lower than expected because of the 34% strikeout rate and the fact that he’s a little older than some of the higher pedigreed hitters.

An interesting name is 5-foot-6-inch utility infielder Caleb Durbin of the Yankees, who has struck out less than 5% of the time and has stolen eight bases already. If he can be a .270 hitter with double-digit home runs, 30+ stolen bases and multi-positional eligibility—as his first 60 plate appearances are pointing to—it goes without saying that he would be a huge fantasy asset. Ideally, he is a mini clone of 2023 Tyler Black.

On the pitching side of things, the top four, or “one short of a pentaverate,” is made up of the cabal of Christian Scott, Cade Povich, Paul Skenes and a rejuvenated Jack Leiter. I expect all of these pitchers to make their MLB debuts this year and be key contributors in redraft leagues. In leagues where he hasn’t been drafted, expect $500+ in NFBC FAAB bidding for Paul Skenes when he debuts in the current armpocalypse wasteland. He’s only throwing three innings per outing—which creates some uncertainty in how much he’ll be let loose in the majors in 2024—but the numbers are clearly elite right now. The others aren’t too shabby either, with RoboScout expecting ERAs under 4.00 when they make their debuts. (Note that public projections will be lower on Jack Leiter on account of his struggles prior to these latest 14 innings).

Double A

On the mound, the top names per RoboScout—and some of these may pitch in the majors this year—are Ian Seymour (TBR), Yu-Min Lin (ARI), Drew Thorpe (CHW) and Caden Dana (LAA). For deeper leagues, a couple interesting names appear in the top eight: Tyler Woessner (MIL) and Ryan Bergert (SDP), two pitchers in their age-24 season who have strikeout rates around 40% and walk rates below 3%. We don’t have 2024 statcast data yet for Double-A, but in 2023, Bergert popped on the internal model with a 114 Stuff+ with a four-pitch mix.

The top hitters in Double-A so far in this young season are Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN) with four home runs, four stolen bases and a 290 wRC+, Roman Anthony (BOS) with two home runs, two stolen bases as a 20-year-old, Agustin Ramirez (NYY) the 22-year-old catcher with six home runs in only 33 plate appearances and Carson Williams (TBR). The first name in the top 10 who might not be widely rostered in your dynasty leagues and who is showing an improved hit tool to complement his power-speed blend of athleticism is Colby Thomas (OAK), who has kept his strikeout rate below 18% while hitting four home runs and stealing three bags.

High-A

The top five in High-A are Ethan Salas (SDP), Jefferson Rojas (CHC), Carter Jensen (KCR, who was an honorable mention on my breakout list for 2024), Cam Collier (CIN) and Anyelo Encarnacion (STL). The least-heralded name, second baseman Encarnacion, may just be a temporary fixture at the top of the rankings as he has only 16 plate appearances and is being heavily buoyed by his 38% walk rate leading to a 333 wRC+. Last year, he did not have a better-than-average barrel rate, exit velocity or even contact rate, so we’ll only be keeping an eye on him for now until we can check under the hood. If you’re in a deep league, though, it might be worth a speculative bid if you have nothing to lose—after all, RoboScout is smarter than me and my skepticism that this isn’t anything other than a product of small sample sizes.

From the pitching side of things, the pentaverate is Sean Sullivan (COL), Noah Schultz (CHW), Calvin Ziegler (NYM), Jaden Hamm (DET) and Moises Chace (BAL). Hamm was one of Geoff Ponte’s breakout names and has a 45% strikeout rate with only a 3% walk rate. Brett Wichrowski (MIL) on my breakout list finds himself in the top 10 too.

Low-A

There are three Low-A pitchers who have separated themselves from the pack after two starts: Santiago Suarez (TBR) with a 47% strikeout rate and no walks over 10 innings, Charlee Soto (MIN) and George Klassen (PHI) who—and no, the record isn’t skipping—was on Geoff’s pitching breakout list (along with Landen Maroudis (TOR) who is seventh in Low-A). If any of these names are available in your league, I do not expect that to be the case next week.

In the batter’s box, the top seven names in Low-A are Colt Emerson (SEA), Juan Flores (a catcher for the Angels), Cristofer Torin (ARI), Yophery Rodriguez (another popular breakout outfielder name for the Brewers), Adrian Santana (TBR), Arjun Nimmala (TOR) and newly-acquired Dodger Zyhir Hope (LAD). It’s early and there will be a lot of volatility here, but I would roster any of these names—including the teenage catcher—in any leagues that roster 300 prospects.

So there you have it—a quick hit on what RoboScout sees thus far in the extremely young minor league season. Happy bidding!