Fantasy Baseball Draft: Biggest Risers, Fallers In Latest Rankings Update

Image credit: (Photo/Tom DiPace)

We just updated our Dynasty 700 rankings as a result of the injuries, (gulp!) suspensions and Spring Training battles fallout.

Where an injury affects a player’s dynasty value, it really affects their redraft value, and we’ve updated them here.

As a reminder, the rankings are based on standard 15-team NFBC style 5×5 roto scoring and incorporates ADP into these rankings. Not only does the ADP reflect market sentiment, but also is a good indicator of how new information affects the rankings, essentially in real-time.

In a subsequent piece, Dylan will discuss high level strategy associated with redraft leagues when using these rankings in a Main Event or Draft Champions league, for example.

Below is a summary of some of the biggest movers on the list from the previous release. As a reminder, you can click here to see our latest redraft Top 500.

Biggest Risers

Tylor Megill, RHP, Mets: With the ongoing Kodai Senga shoulder saga, Megill has emerged as the likely fifth starter for the Mets. Drafters seem to also like his increased velocity so far this spring. As a result, he finds himself moving into the 30th round.

James Wood, OF, Nationals: The Nationals outfielder is putting an exclamation point on his case for making the major league team. Wood shows an exciting blend of power and speed while drastically cutting down on his swing-and-miss, at least so far. Drafters are taking notice—and we are too—moving him into the early 400s.

Jackson Merrill, SS/CF, Padres: Another rookie enters the rankings. Savvy drafters have pushed the SS/CF for weeks now, as they suspected the sweet-swinging Merrill would break camp. He made the team this week, at least to start the year, and his solid .250 average and 15/15 floor, with dual eligibility, gets him into the top 400.

Cole Irvin, LHP, Orioles: With Kyle Bradish’s elbow becoming a point of concern for the Orioles, Cole Irvin became the most popular candidate to take his spot in the rotation, especially after flashing a two-mph increase in velocity during his spring debut. As a result, Irvin moves onto the ranks.

Logan Allen, LHP, Guardians: The solid Allen enters the rankings with his high floor, made even more solid with the news that Gavin Williams will begin the season on the Guardians IL.

Gavin Stone, RHP, Dodgers: With Buehler and Sheehan starting the season on the Dodger IL, Gavin Stone is the presumptive fifth starter. His climb in ADP reflects it.

Jared Jones, RHP, Pirates: The 100-mph hurler has loudly stated his case to make the Pirates rotation so far. Jones has arguably raised his preseason redraft stock the most of anyone on this list with the exception of Jackson Merrill.

Erick Fedde, RHP, White Sox: A dive into Fedde uncovers that projections are likely not adequately accounting for his Korean rebirth, where he added velocity and began incorporating a new pitch. If you believe that he is an entirely new pitcher and ignore his major league history, his translated KBO performance looks a lot like Aaron Civale’s projection (ranked in the top 200). With the White Sox trading Dylan Cease, Fedde might just be the Opening Day starter.

Sean Bouchard, OF, Rockies: Bouchard enters the top 500 after the Rockies announced him as their starting right fielder and subsequently demoted Hunter Goodman.

Colton Cowser, Victor Scott II: Both outfielders might begin the season in the major leagues and are now soundly in the top 500.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Marlins: As Eury Perez battles a fingernail issue, Edward Cabrera nurses his impinged shoulder and Max Meyer watches from Triple-A, Puk has successfully transitioned from reliever into the starting rotation. What’s not entirely clear is whether he will succeed in that role. Early returns this spring suggest he will.

Biggest Fallers

Lucas Giolito, RHP, Red Sox: With his UCL surgery, he is out for the season and off the top 500.

Devin Williams, RHP, Brewers: One of the top closers tumbles the list following ESPN.com’s report that he has two stress fractured in his back and is expected to miss at least half the season. Even in a best-case scenario where Williams returns after the all-star break and immediately (and effectively) returns to the closer role, he’s still probably only going to get 10-15 saves. And that’s best case. As a result, he’s fallen to just inside the top 350 (which is around the 24th round).

Gerrit Cole, RHP, Yankees: As of publication, Cole is expected to miss one to two months but avoid surgery on his right elbow, according to the New York Post. That establishes a best-case scenario where he pitches for two-thirds of the season. Even if he performs at his accustomed level for that period of time, his value falls to approximately that of Jose Berrios, who is just outside the 10th round. The worst-case scenario is Cole doesn’t pitch at all. As a result, we moved him down to around the 16th round. That might still be too optimistic.

Kodai Senga, RHP, Mets: Drafters have avoided Senga since his shoulder issue delayed his throwing program by a week. With the uncertainty and large variance in best-case vs worst-case scenario, we drop him to the 13th round, which still makes him a top-60 starting pitcher.

Kyle Bradish, RHP, Orioles: Pitching injuries are the impetus for most individual downward movement. Bradish, who is dealing with an elbow injury, falls to just outside the 20th round.

Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds: A half-season suspension knocks Marte down from a 12th-round pick to a 20th-round pick.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs: The Cody Bellinger signing impairs PCA’s obvious path to playing time and the demotion merely reinforces it. He may still provide power and speed when he plays along with batting average risk, but the uncertainty of when that will manifest drops him to around the 30th round.

Colin Poche, Brandon Belt, Jeffrey Springs, Pierce Johnson, Mike Yastrzemski, Mark Vientos, and Chris Martin fall off the list.