Elly De La Cruz Is Learning To Lay Off Poor Pitches

Image credit: (Photo by Matt Thomas/Padres via Getty Images)

Elly De La Cruz’s rookie season could best be described as the Bo Jackson starter package.

There were many days where De La Cruz made a jaw-dropping play. He had MLB’s fastest sprint speed (32.0 feet/second) and the fastest inside-the-park home run (14.96 seconds). He also had the hardest infield throw (99.8 mph). De La Cruz had the third-hardest hit home run (119.2 mph).

He showed 80 raw power, 80 speed and an 80 arm. He was a human highlight film.

But he also hit .235/.300/.410 with a 33.7% strikeout rate and only an 8.2% walk rate. Much like Jackson before his career was derailed by a serious hip injury, De La Cruz’s highlights were remarkable, but the day-to-day production often didn’t always match the highlights.

Last year, De La Cruz as a 21-year-old showed the flashes of greatness that Jackson did as a 25 and 26-year-old. As we’ve noted multiple times over the years, De La Cruz is truly exceptional when it comes to his tools.

Nine games into the 2024 season, it seemed like De La Cruz was headed to a similar follow-up to his major league debut. He was hitting .242/.324/.394 with a 46% strikeout rate. The highlights were incredible, but the consistency wasn’t there.

But in addition to being a true unicorn athletically, De La Cruz’s other most notable trait is his ability to continuously improve. It was highlighted coming into the 2022 season  and we highlighted this again 11 months ago, where we noted that while De La Cruz’s strikeout rate had long been a concern, he showed a tendency to improve it as he learned the level. Until he reached Triple-A, his exceptional ability meant he was rarely at a level long enough to truly master the strike zone–he was able to hit .300 with a strikeout rate above 30%, something that pretty much no one else has done.

 In his first 22 plate appearances at Triple-A last year, he was 2-for-22 with one walk and 11 strikeouts. From then to his promotion to the majors, De La Cruz hit .331/.436/.699 with a 23% strikeout rate.

It’s been a continual trend for De La Cruz. He takes time to acclimate, but once he does, his chase rate improves. His contract rate ticks up and he shows he’s ready to move up to another level, even when he was one of the youngest players in the league.

It’s happening again. 

In De La Cruz’s last 20 games, he’s hitting .296/.412/.662 with eight home runs, 13 stolen bases, a 18.2% walk rate and a 23.5% strikeout rate.

Last year, even when De La Cruz made contact, it was sometimes on pitcher’s pitches. Here’s the location of pitches he put into play in the majors in 2023, thanks to Synergy Sports.

De La Cruz made a lot of contact on pitches below the zone. This year, he’s letting those pitches go. Here is his 2024 balls in play by pitch location.

De La Cruz’s chase rate is right around league average now instead of the bottom quarter of the league. Because of that, his walk rate has climbed from 8.2% in 2023 to 13.9% in 2024. De La Cruz currently ranks in the top 10 in the National League in home runs, slugging percentage, OPS, extra-base hits, total bases and runs, and his 18 steals lead baseball.

This is De La Cruz’s pattern time after time. He arrives to a league far earlier than most players, and there’s a period of time where he struggles to adjust. Once he gets a chance to acclimate, he levels up, and dominates. He does it time and time again.

A lot of it is because De La Cruz is swinging at better pitches. You can’t sneak a fastball by him, but you can get him on changeups and quality breaking balls. De La Cruz has done a better job so far of laying off pitches he can’t crush.

Here’s the pitches De La Cruz swung and missed as a lefthanded hitter in 2023.

And here’s the same chart for 2024. The sample is much smaller, but the changeups (purple) away and the sliders (blue) down and in below the zone aren’t as troublesome for him.

Here’s what he’s swung and missed as a righthanded hitter in 2023.

And here are his swings and misses as a righthanded hitter in 2024. He’ll still chase below the zone at times, but he’s rarely missing a fastball (red) and rarely missing a pitch in the zone.

It’s an amazing start, and it leads to a fun question. De La Cruz has shown over and over that he can dominate a league once he acclimates. He then moves up to the next level to repeat the process. But what happens when there’s no next level?

The Reds will be very happy to find out.