Dynasty Second Base Targets, Sleepers And Fades For 2024
Image credit: (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Stuffed with holiday cheer (and turkey), we released the top 50 dynasty second basemen this week.
As with the other positions, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White reveal their naughty and nice — er, their targets, sleepers, and fades list for the keystone — where they identify players who they think will meet or exceed their current fantasy value; those with starting value outside the top tier at the position but have a good chance of jumping substantially in value; and players who are potentially at the peak of their dynasty value.
You can find all of positional rankings, target/sleeper/fades lists, deep dives, articles about strategy and all things fantasy in BA’s Fantasy Baseball 2024 HQ here.
Second Basemen To Target
Nolan Gorman, Cardinals
Always considered a slugging infielder as a minor leaguer, Gorman validated the scouting reports by hitting 27 homers in 464 plate appearances in 2023 until a hamstring issue ended his season in September. Considering he’ll be only 23 years old when the 2024 season begins, he seems to be undervalued as a dynasty second baseman. There are some caveats. Gorman’s defensive value may drive him to first base or designated hitter, especially considering his fringy arm strength isn’t a great fit at third base. His strikeout rate may never allow him to post a batting average above .250 in his career. But considering he is one of only a few second basemen who could conceivably average 25 to 30 home runs for the next five years, Gorman is an undervalued target.
– Dylan White
Davis Schneider, Blue Jays
Schneider’s record-setting debut made headlines — he put up a scorching 252 wRC+ in his first 100 major league plate appearances — but he ended the year on a 2-for-35 schneid. It’s easy to paint a narrative that major league pitchers figured Schneider out and he couldn’t adjust. As you might suspect, that is overly simplistic.
Schneider had the lowest chase rate among major leaguers after his first 25 games in the big leagues. On the season as a whole, though, pitchers stretched the strike zone on Schneider especially, as the below tweet suggests:
Taking those pitches should have put Schneider ahead in the count. Instead, he ended up behind, requiring him to then expand the zone beyond his comfort to make up ground. His production naturally suffered. Although we could have never expected his otherworldly big league debut, RoboScout did rank Schneider as a top-10 bat in Triple-A, predicting future major league success.
Schneider’s fringy arm strength is best suited for second base, where he grades out as an average defender. Both Steamer and ZiPS project him as an above-average bat in 2024. Don’t be surprised, pending any significant roster moves, if Schneider accrues the most plate appearances at the keystone for the Blue Jays in 2024, meaning he is definitely worth a “stache” in redraft leagues. Considering he’s 25 years old at the start of the season, Schneider should produce approximately 3.0 WAR over 600 plate appearances for at least the next three years, giving him higher dynasty value than you might expect.
– Dylan White
Andres Gimenez, Guardians
Disappointment was the standard in the Guardians lineup in 2023. After finishing as the sixth-best second baseman in 2022, Gimenez slid back to 14th in 2023. Much of Gimenez’s list value was tied up in a 60-point drop in batting average on balls in play. For a contact-dependent player, that drop in batted ball luck accounted for a 45-point drop in wRC+. Gimenez saw a 10-steal jump in 2023 and his 15 home runs were in the neighborhood of his expected outcome. He made more contact in 2023 and lifted the ball with greater regularity. At age 25 entering 2024, it’s not unreasonable to anticipate slight gains across Gimenez’s skillset in the coming years. A 20-home run and 30-stolen base season is not out of the question.
– Geoff Pontes
Brandon Lowe, Rays
It’s reasonable to be pessimistic regarding Lowe’s health moving forward. He missed 26 games in the middle of last season with a nagging back injury before a patella fracture ended his season prematurely. A stress fracture in his lower back ended his 2022 season. But here’s the rub. His injury history is baked into his price this season and his track record of production makes him a worthy gamble. Over the last three seasons, Lowe ranks third in wRC+ for second basemen, ranking behind only Jose Altuve and Luis Arraez. Over that period, Lowe is fourth in home runs, seventh in RBIs and second in walk rate among second baseman. It’s indisputable that Lowe is a productive player when he’s on the field.
– Geoff Pontes
Second Basemen Sleepers
Tyler Black, Brewers
Black ranks as Milwaukee’s No. 4 prospect entering 2024 and is the system’s best hitter for average. He also has the best strike-zone discipline. RoboScout pegged him as the fourth-best hitter in Double-A last year – even higher than Biloxi teammate Jackson Chourio – seeing both as 20-20 power/speed threats with above-average wRC+. Black’s position is still not clear. He primarily played second base in 2022, but shifted predominantly to the hot corner in 2023. He did not play second base after the Brewers promoted him to Triple-A in August, either, but did try first base. The 23-year-old isn’t on the Brewers’ 40-man roster and likely won’t make the club out of spring training, but I expect him to get called up by the second half of the year. As a result, Black will become a popular fantasy target in the 2025 preseason.
– Dylan White
Thomas Saggese, Cardinals
The primary return in the Jordan Montgomery trade, Saggese led all minor leaguers in hits (170) and total bases (294) in 2023. He’s creeping his way into the top-100 fantasy prospect conversation. With his knack for the barrel, the Rangers’ fifth-round pick in 2020 found himself in the top 15 of the RoboScout Double-A rankings in 2023 before Texas traded him to the Cardinals. Although his Statcast data is not eye-popping, you might be surprised to find out that he had a better contact rate, 90th percentile exit velocity, and barrel rate than fellow Double-A Frisco teammate Evan Carter. Not yet on the Cardinals’ 40-man roster — whereas Jose Fermin and Buddy Kennedy are — we may not see Saggese in the major leagues in 2024. But, considering he profiles as an average second baseman with above-average hitting seasons at peak, it is extremely possible that we see him manning the Cardinals keystone full time in 2025 and beyond.
– Dylan White
Jace Jung, Tigers
Despite amateur pedigree and MLB bloodlines (his brother is Rangers 3B Josh Jung) Jace has gone underrated by the public at large. Bat-first second basemen are hardly the types of prospects that get the public excited, but Jung is an excellent fantasy prospect to target in all dynasty formats. Jung shows solid contact skills and plate approach, but his combination of hard contact and strong angles hints at an exciting power-hitting floor. Jung’s exit velocity is strong with an average (89.1 mph) and 90th percentile (104.4 mph) that are already above major league average. Jung’s barrel rate and xWOBA (.368) are excellent and his underlying expected power numbers place him in strong company. There’s not much in the way of talent blocking Jung from a full-time gig with the Tigers by midsummer of 2024.
– Geoff Pontes
Juan Brito, Guardians
Right now, the Nolan Jones trade looks like a stain on the Guardians, as their former prospect flourished with the Rockies in 2023. But Brito was the player who went the other way in the trade and is coming into his own. Over 127 games spanning three levels in 2023, Brito hit .271/.377/.434 with 14 home runs, 31 doubles and a 14.1% walk rate. He has pristine plate skills with excellent angles on contact. Despite pedestrian exit velocity data, Brito shows the ability to elevate the ball to all fields, and with added strength could unlock 20-homer power in time. Brito likely lacks sufficient helium at present considering his skillset, upper minors experience and place on the Guardians’ 40-man roster.
– Geoff Pontes
Second Basemen To Fade
Marcus Semien, Rangers
In his last three seasons, the leadoff hitter for the reigning World Series champions has two 6+ fWAR seasons, 100 home runs, 54 stolen bases, and an average of 734 plate appearances per year, leading to an average of 208 Runs + RBIs per season. On a per plate appearance basis, Steamer(600) currently projects Semien to have the second-highest WAR among second basemen in 2024, trailing only Mookie Betts. So why is he a fade?
Think of this instead as an invitation to consider moving him this season. Assuming generic WAR curves, he projects to have the seventh-highest WAR in 2025 and the 13th-highest WAR in 2026 among the player pool of second basemen. Semien is also vulnerable to a step back in seasonal output because a lot of his fantasy value is tied to his massive total of accrued plate appearances. Pair that with the potential to stumble if he’s lowered in the batting order — or if he just starts to show hints of natural decline due to age — and his perceived value among your leaguemates will tumble. Now is likely the best time to maximize a trade return for Semien in your dynasty league.
– Dylan White
Luis Arraez, Marlins
There’s not much to knock the 2023 batting champion for, as he’s a category winner in batting average leagues. He’s also been one of the most productive players at the position over the last three seasons. When looking at things through a fantasy lens, Arraez isn’t quite what his wRC+ over the last three seasons implies. He ranked No. 13 per the Razzball player rater in 2023 despite winning the batting title in convincing fashion. In 2022, Arraez once again ranked outside the top 10, finishing 12th among second baseman. Arraez has never finished inside the top 10 of the position and is likely to go overvalued in most leagues. He’s a fine target to fill a middle infield spot, but he shouldn’t be a primary target at second base in 2024.
– Geoff Pontes
