Dynasty Pitchers Targets, Sleepers And Fades For 2024

Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles 

The No. 1 pitching prospect in 2022 struggled mightily over his first 10 major league starts, posting a 7.35 ERA over 45 innings. Much of the damage came from a 2.58 HR/9. As a result, the Orioles sent Rodriguez to the minors at the end of May and he didn’t return to the majors until July. From that point on, he was a new pitcher. Rodriguez posted a 2.58 ERA over 76.1 innings and allowed just three homers in that span. He essentially ditched his cutter, which he threw 15% of the time in his first big league stint, and leaned more heavily on his 97-mph four-seam fastball. His Stuff+ jumped from 104 in the first half of the year to 126 in the second half, according to FanGraphs. That was the largest jump in Stuff+ for a pitcher who threw at least 40 innings in both halves of the season. Before last season, we said Rodriguez had top-of-the-rotation potential with a midrotation floor. It appears he has achieved the latter already. Look for him to begin his march toward the former in 2024.

— Dylan White

Kyle Bradish, Orioles 

Another Orioles starter, the 26-year-old righthander burst onto the scene with a minuscule 2.83 ERA over 168 innings after a nondescript rookie campaign in 2022. Bradish boasts one of the most hellacious pairs of breaking pitches in the majors. He held both righties (24.4% strikeout percentage) and lefties (25.7% strikeout percentage) at bay. Arguably, his biggest gains year-over-year were from his command. He lowered his walk percentage from a fringy 9% in 2022 to a solid 6.6% in 2023. His underlying ball percentage supported the improvement. From a pitch arsenal point of view, his Stuff+ was the third highest among starting pitchers in 2023. His slider boasted the highest Stuff+ among all major league sliders and his curveball was No. 8 per the same metric. Projected for an ERA below 4.00 and pitching for one of the American League’s best teams in 2024, don’t be surprised if Bradish builds off his 2023 campaign and enters the Cy Young conversation.

— Dylan White

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers 

I want as many shares of Yamamoto in fantasy as I can get my hands on. Since my early days playing fantasy baseball in Yahoo public leagues, I’ve gone out of my way to acquire Japanese stars. Yamamoto is a class of Japanese star that few outside of Shohei Ohtani and Hideki Matsui have approached. Yamamoto is the most decorated pitcher in the history of Japan, having won three Sawamura awards (Japanese Cy Young), Pacific League MVPs and three consecutive triple crowns. He turned 25 years old in late August, and has dominated the second-best baseball league in the world since he was in his early 20s. Yamamoto mixes a mid-90s fastball, splitter, cutter and curveball. Yamamoto has the best possible team situation with the Dodgers, guaranteed an opportunity for wins each time he takes the mound. There’s a chance Yamamoto skips some starts here and there, but that’s simply the environment of modern sports (ask an NBA fan). Yamamoto has a real chance to be a top-10 option among pitchers for the better part of a decade. 

— Geoff Pontes 

Tanner Bibee, Guardians 

It’s often astute to target pitching prospects in organizations that consistently show the ability to develop pitching. Dodgers, Mariners, Rays and Guardians prospects are of particular interest to me when filling my pitching staff in dynasty. Tanner Bibee is just the latest example in this grand tradition. Bibee broke out in 2022 when he showed a significant velocity jump from his college days at Cal State Fullerton. The stuff held and Bibee debuted in 2023, pitching to a 2.98 ERA with 141 strikeouts to 45 walks over 143 innings and 25 starts. The righty finished second in American League rookie of the year voting. Bibee shows advanced command of his pitch mix as his fastball, slider and changeup all graded out as above-average to plus pitches per run values. Bibee enters 2024 coming off a late-season hip injury, but should be in line to see a larger workload this season and beyond. 

— Geoff Pontes 

Pitcher Sleepers

Nick Pivetta, Red Sox 

Yes, I’ve selected the 31-year-old former Phillies starter—the No. 97 pitcher on our dynasty rankings—as a dynasty sleeper. I expect Pivetta to exceed expectations in 2024. In 2022, Pivetta had a disappointing 13.2% strikeout-to-walk percentage over 179 innings. His fastball and curveball—his two primary pitches that he threw 80% of the time—averaged 93 mph and 77 mph, respectively. Pivetta worked with Driveline after the season and added roughly 1.5 to 2 mph on both pitches even when excluding outings when coming out of the bullpen. His 20.8% strikeout-to-walk ratio was the highest mark of his career. Just as impressively, he had the third-highest Stuff+ in September among starters, trailing only Kyle Bradish and Tyler Glasnow. He finished the season with 25.2 innings over four outings (against Baltimore, Toronto, the Yankees and the White Sox), where he only walked three and struck out 33. It’s a small sample size, but note he has only ever amassed 38 strikeouts over five consecutive starts three times in his career, suggesting this isn’t just random variation. The Canadian-born pitcher is reportedly again working with Driveline this offseason hoping to build off the substantive gains he made a year ago. As a result, I expect he will outperform his projections.

— Dylan White

Griffin Canning, Angels 

Theoretically, a sleeper is someone who has a high probability of out-earning their consensus ranking. The irony is that because these inherent probabilities are already incorporated into my ranking list, it becomes difficult to select someone who will further exceed this baked-in potential upside. In Canning’s case, it’s been a litany of injuries that has suppressed his dynasty value and not a question of skills. Canning reached 127 innings in 2023 after previously never amassing 100 innings in a season, holding opponents to an ERA of 4.32. All estimators suggest that his true talent was closer to 4.00. Canning averaged a reasonable 94.5 mph average on his fastball while sustaining a one mph velocity increase all season. All of his other standard markers of performance, such as K-BB%, groundball rate, whiff% and swinging strike rate, were all firmly average or better-than-average among 2023 starting pitchers. Surprisingly, he had essentially the same CSW% and whiff% as Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman. Canning improved not just his Stuff+ in the second half, but also amassed a 3.26 FIP, 11.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 53 innings from the all-star break to the end of the season. Canning will still be only 27 years old when 2024 begins and has a similar 2024 projection to Jose Berrios (though fewer innings). If he is capable of staying relatively injury-free and can surpass his conservative innings projection, look for him to easily enter the top 75 to 100 dynasty pitchers.

— Dylan White

Shane Baz, Rays 

Baz was trending toward a top-30 pitcher entering 2022 prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery. The unfortunate timing of his elbow injury cost Baz most of 2022 and all of 2023. His innings will likely be limited in 2024, but the goal in dynasty should be to not only win in any given season, but to put yourself in the best position to have success for the next three. Baz will likely seal very few, if any, fantasy championships in 2024, but in 2025 and 2026 it might be a different story. Baz’s pitch mix compares extremely well to Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, and if Baz can find consistent health, a top-15 pitcher season could be in the cards come 2025 and 2026. Trust the talent and acquire Baz while the price is still reasonable. 

— Geoff Pontes 

Brayan Bello, Red Sox 

The Red Sox pitching staff has been much maligned by their local media as the organization has failed to deliver on their promises of an “all-in” offseason. Lost among this is a group of young, talented pitchers who may just benefit from recent hires by new GM Craig Breslow. The Red Sox hired pitching coach Andrew Bailey from San Francisco and brought in Driveline founder Kyle Boddy to consult on player development. Pitchers like Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello could benefit directly. Bello broke out in 2022, pitching his way to the big leagues. He made 28 starts for the Red Sox in 2023 with solid results. Bello has always had premium velocity, the ability to drive groundballs at a high rate and a plus changeup. After pocketing his slider more in 2023, he’s committed to using the pitch more in 2024. Bello’s changeup is his best bat-missing pitch, but his hard gyro slider has the ability to drive more misses if executed in the right sections in and out of the zone. Progressing with his command and plan of attack in 2024 could see Bello take a step forward into the top-30 starters. 

— Geoff Pontes 

Pitchers To Fade

Walker Buehler, Dodgers 

Buehler underwent his second Tommy John surgery in Aug. 2022, and there was some hope the 2015 first-rounder could join the Dodgers, at the very least, for the postseason. Unfortunately, that idea was put to bed after he was shut down for the season following a two-inning start for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sept. 3. It’s admittedly low-hanging fruit to pick a pitcher coming off a significant elbow injury as a fade, but there are some potential warning signs this isn’t just a run-of-the-mill return from surgery. Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes said in December they will tread carefully with Buehler’s innings in 2024. Dave Roberts made subsequent comments suggesting Buehler may not start the season for the Dodgers and could have his innings capped. Even if you assume Buehler’s shutdown in 2023 isn’t an indication of an underlying concern, he was already showing signs of a potential decline prior to the surgery. His fastball sat 96.5 mph in 2018 and 2019, but averaged a full tick lower in 2021 and 2022. The Vanderbilt alum turns 30 this year, and it’s not unreasonable to think he may never recover his lost velocity, which is a significant headwind for regaining previous success. Keep an eye on his spring training—if Buehler’s velocity is still lower than expected, it may be a sign that his dynasty value is in significant jeopardy.

— Dylan White

Aaron Nola, Phillies 

Nola is on an odd pattern of production over the last six years. He seems to alternate between good and bad seasons. The 2023 campaign was tough, just as the 2021 and 2019 seasons were, but 2018, 2020 and 2022 were excellent. The success of Nola’s fastball backed up in 2023, as did the effectiveness of his signature curveball. Nola’s lack of fastball velocity is nothing new, but the velocity on his sinker dropped a half a mph while his fastball variations were all hit harder than at any point in his career. Nola is trending toward a fantasy No. 3 starter, but is still priced like a high-end No. 2. At 30 years old and facing diminished stuff and effectiveness, Nola’s innings likely can’t make up for his lack of frontline quality. While it’s reasonable to expect another two to three top-30 pitcher seasons from Nola, I’ll be looking elsewhere. 

— Geoff Pontes