Dynasty Outfielder Targets, Sleepers And Fades For 2024

Jackson Chourio, Brewers

A top prospect being selected as a target is not “bold,” but I have him here as someone to safely target. After signing his extension with the Brewers, he is almost assured of being given full-time playing time and a long leash. Most public projection systems have him as a near–league average hitter with, per 600 plate appearances, ~18 home runs and ~25 stolen bases. If he were to meet that median projection as a 20-year-old, he would be extremely difficult to trade for in a dynasty league after the season. In other words, the window in which to reasonably acquire a potential .280/.350 25 HR/35 SB bat at peak is rapidly closing.

  -Dylan White

Wyatt Langford, Rangers

It’s rare that a team wins a World Series and enters the next season with a potential Top 10 prospect waiting in the wings. The Rangers happen to find themselves in this blessed position due to Wyatt Langford falling into their lap with the fourth pick in the draft in 2023. Langford has a truly outlier combination of bat-to-ball skills, approach and power. Langford looks like a potential force in all fantasy scoring formats as he plays just as well in average, OBP and points-based scoring. It’s not outrageous to say Langford has a chance to develop plus-plus contact, approach and power. While there’s some debate around how much Langford will run, he’s not a plodder. Take the discount while you can because Langford looks like a lock to become a top 10 outfielder for the next decade. 

-Geoff Pontes

Jordan Walker, Cardinals

What a difference a year makes. Despite a strong rookie season, I’ve seen the asking price for Walker in dynasty leagues actually drop over the last few months. Let this serve as a reminder that Walker is still just 21 years old entering 2024, and just capped off a rookie season in which he hit .276/.342/.445 with 16 home runs and just a 22.4% strikeout rate. Walker is an outlier athlete with natural plus-plus raw power he’s simply just beginning to scratch the surface of. If you’re looking for a player who could hit his way into the top two rounds in next year’s draft, look no further than Walker. 

Outfielder Sleepers

Sal Frelick, Brewers

For Frelick, I am choosing to compare his expected production to a similar hitting profile: Steven Kwan. Although a high batting average, low power, good baserunning profile is not sexy, Steven Kwan’s single-digit performance in 2022 still rated him as the No. 15 outfielder in 15 team batting average roto leagues. When it comes to Frelick—parking the obvious fact that he is younger than Kwan—in 2023, he had a better barrel rate (2.4% vs 1.1%), a better 90^th percentile exit velocity (100 vs 98 mph) and a higher sprint speed (28.6 mph vs 28.1 mph per savant). Because Frelick is still only 23 years old, and his power metrics should improve, it’s not unreasonable that Frelick’s floor for 2024 is Steven Kwan—remember, he is arguably as good a defender as the Guardians’ outfielder—with even better expected production over the next few years, as he ages up toward his prime with major league experience. The Brewers’ outfielder is already projected to have a batting average of ~.270 with ~15 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances. Because he stole seven bases in 2023 without being caught, I think a .275 batting average with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases is reasonably achievable in 2024 with a 20% chance of exceeding a .300+ batting average.

 -Dylan White

Jack Suwinski, Pirates

I think Suwinski is one of the more underrated dynasty outfielders, especially in OBP-based leagues. Even with a below-average batting average, a player projected to put up home run and stolen base numbers similar to Bryan Reynolds, Seiya Suzuki and Riley Greene—in his age-25 season—should be a productive fantasy contributor for several years, especially one who provides above-average defense and will be more likely to maintain playing time. The batting average is a negative, but, in 2023, despite his .224 batting average he was still the 44^th highest outfielder value (in a 15-team batting average league), perhaps surprisingly ahead of Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar. Although “OF3” may not sound particularly elite, remember that he is still three years from his prime when he should be expected to hit 30 home runs yearly.

 -Dylan White

Chas McCormick, Astros 

Our exposure to players and how that shapes our perception is a strong thing. When given the choice of picking between two players, if one player has prospect pedigree and the other does not, more often than not the player with minor league pedigree wins out. Chas McCormick is a player whose draft price is being repressed by a natural predisposition to dismiss late bloomers. McCormick put together a breakout season in 2023, returning more per-game value in fantasy than higher-rated outfielders like Randy Arozarena, Bryan Reynolds and Michael Harris II. The difference is McCormick can be acquired for a far smaller cost. McCormick missed a 20–home run and 20–stolen base season in 2023 by one steal, while hitting .273/.353/.489 across 115 games. With a lack of options behind McCormick and his excellent numbers against lefthanded pitching (.325/.399/.610), it’s not unreasonable to expect McCormick to exceed 500 plate appearances in 2024 for the first time in his career. If you pair that with his per-game production in 2023, McCormick could be a potential Top 25 outfielder in 2024. 

-Geoff Pontes 

Brendan Donovan, Cardinals 

Last season ended in an unfortunate injury for Donovan as he went down in late July with a right elbow strain. Over the previous 95 games, Donovan showcased excellent plate skills with some developing power. Entering 2024, Donovan is once again healthy and is working on improving his power gains. I’ve seen recent video of the changes Donovan made to his swing to get more stretch, which will allow him to get to more power in games and drive breaking balls, something he struggled to do at times last season because his body was searching for stretch his swing wasn’t creating. If Donovan can match his excellent plate skills with improved power, he can take advantage of his projected lineup spot atop the Cardinals batting order. 

-Geoff Pontes 

Outfielders To Fade

George Springer, Blue Jays

After the worst year of his career—despite still achieving a 20/20 season—the Jays’ leadoff hitter has more perceived value than actual value. Projected at age 34 to have a .255/.330 25/15 season with a weighted runs created plus corresponding to ~12% above league average, he extrapolates to a league average outfielder by age 36. Although .245/.320 19/11 is still useful, that’s closer to Tommy Pham and Daulton Varsho than to a once upper-tier five category contributor.

 -Dylan White

Randy Arozarena, Rays 

There are few players in the game who play with more passion and exuberance than Arozarena. After taking a few years to bloom, Arozarena ripped off three consecutive 20/20 seasons as he enters his age-29 season. While I don’t expect Arozarena’s production to drop off in 2024, it’s hard to fathom he has more than one or two 20-20 seasons left in him. Players slow down on the other side of 30, particularly players who rely on speed, explosiveness and twitch the way Arozarena does. A poor outfielder, it’s not impossible that he moves off of a full-time outfield role in the coming years and sees more and more at-bats at DH. It just seems like a lot to bet on a player approaching 30 to hold his fantasy value that’s so heavily dependent on him running. Over his major league career, Arozarena has never had an isolated slugging above .185 and has never hit for a higher average than .274. 

-Geoff Pontes