Dynasty First Base Targets, Sleepers and Fades for 2024

Bryce Harper, Phillies

After missing the beginning of 2023 recovering from elbow surgery, Harper returned and hit .293/.401/.499 with 21 home runs and 11 steals over 126 games. What projection systems don’t necessarily account for – and what potentially points to him surpassing his preseason projection – is that his 118 wRC+ in the first half of the season and the second half 164 wRC+ wasn’t just natural variance, but potentially attributable to him returning to games too soon and needing time to knock off the rust and get back into form. In other words, his second half 164 wRC+ might be closer to his true talent level than his overall season’s mark of 142 wRC+. Also, with the move to first base, the value of Harper’s double-digit stolen bases are worth more (compared to the stolen bases “available” from the rest of the options at the position) than when he roamed the outfield.

– Dylan White

Yandy Diaz, Rays 

First base is a deep and talented position with plenty of worthy targets outside the top 10 of our rankings. Diaz ranks 12th and is an ideal target for a corner infield spot or a budget first baseman if you missed out on more costly names. He hit .330/.410/.522 with 22 home runs in a breakout 2023 season. After years of flashing raw power and strong underlying exit velocity data, Diaz finally found a marriage of hard contact and positive launch angle, yielding the highest barrel rate (9.5%) of his career. Diaz led all first basemen in wRC+ (164) in 2023. His groundball rate and spike in HR/FB% give some reasons for pause. Diaz has a high floor due to his strong plate skills and offers value across all scoring formats (5×5, OBP and points) making him an ideal fit in all league types. 

– Geoff Pontes

Spencer Steer, Reds 

On paper, it looks like too many mouths to feed at first base in Cincinnati. Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Jeimer Candelario all rank within the top 25 at first base. In all likelihood, Encarnacion-Strand is the odd man out with Candelario handling the duties at first base and Steer seeing a majority of his playing time in left field. Steer should qualify at first base for at least 2024, and has a balanced skill set that hints at a higher floor. Steer hit .271/.356/.464 with 23 home runs and 15 stolen bases across 156 games. He finished with the ninth-highest wRC+ (118) among all rookies and has a great situation, hitting in a talented lineup in a hitter’s park. Steer has the potential to hit .275 or better with 25 home runs and 10-15 stolen bases, with strong counting stats. 

– Geoff Pontes

First Basemen Sleepers

Kyle Manzardo, Guardians

The nagging question with Manzardo is whether he will show enough power at first base. After being traded to the Guardians for Aaron Civale in the second half of 2023, Manzardo hit well and carried over the momentum to the Arizona Fall League. He ranks as Cleveland’s No. 4 prospect entering the season. Expect him to debut in 2024 as a first baseman in the mold of Vinnie Pasquantino and Nathaniel Lowe: hit over power, but with enough pop to roster confidently at the corner.

– Dylan White

Nolan Schanuel, Angels

Schanuel is a divisive name because of his extremely low exit velocities and his ultra-aggressive ascent to the majors after being drafted in July. Pessimists are concerned that his career wooden bat exit velocities do not portend future run creation – especially from the first base position – whereas optimists are impressed with his pitch recognition and contact ability at a young age on the highest stage. Recently, the discourse has seemingly over-corrected so much to the pessimist side that I think he is a value.

– Dylan White

Rhys Hoskins, Free Agent 

Hoskins’ landing spot in free agency could certainly impact his value going forward. He could see some downgrade moving to a worse hitting environment than his former digs in Philadelphia. Hoskins missed all of 2023 after tearing his ACL in a ugly spring training injury. He’ll be more than a year removed from the injury on opening day and it’s reasonable to expect a return to form. Between 2018-2022, Hoskins ranked fifth among first baseman in home runs with 130. That’s four more than Freddie Freeman, while trailing only Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt and Max Muncy (now at third base). Hoskins ranked eighth in walk rate (13.2%) during the same timeframe, making him an OBP stalwart. His wOBA over that period ranked seventh (.356) among first baseman, behind the top names at the position (Freeman, Goldschmidt, Alonso, Guerrero, Muncy and Rizzo). It’s not unreasonable to expect a loud return from Hoskins at 30 years old. 

-Geoff Pontes

Jeimer Candelario, Reds

Corner infield options thin out fast as you get further into drafts. Candelario offers potential upside for bargain shoppers. After a career year split between the Nationals and Cubs, the Reds inked Candelario to a three-year contract valued at $45 million. He finds himself in the best situation of his career entering 2024, hitting in a talented lineup in one of the best hitters parks in baseball. After hitting a career-high 22 home runs in 2023, it’s not unreasonable to anticipate similar or better home runs totals in 2024, with an opportunity to pad his run and RBI totals due to his lineup. 

– Geoff Pontes

First Basemen To Fade

Alex Kirilloff, Twins

We’ve been waiting for Kirilloff to stay healthy and meet his potential since he was drafted No. 15 overall in 2016. He ranked No. 1 in the Twins system with a 70-grade hit tool and 60-grade power as recently as 2021. But the 26-year-old has only accrued 706 MLB plate appearances and 22 career homers because of a litany of injuries, including season-ending wrist surgery in 2022. Wrist injuries are notoriously power-sapping for hitters, and it’s quite likely he will never hit more than 20 home runs in a season for the rest of his career. That’s not the production that fantasy players expect at first base. With a 76 wRC+ against southpaws and 112 wRC+ against righties – taking all the typical small-sample caveats into consideration – Kirilloff may start to be platooned, applying further downward pressure to his value.

– Dylan White

Cody Bellinger, Free Agent 

Bellinger’s free agency landing spot is a question mark and could impact his overall value for the next several seasons. He bounced back and returned to form in 2023 with the Cubs, but there’s reason for skepticism. While Bellinger’s contact skills improved, his underlying exit velocity and power data was underwhelming. That leads to questions as to just how repeatable 2023 will be for Bellinger. While he’s still a name worth rostering in all formats, his price tag on draft day might be slightly inflated. 

– Geoff Pontes