Dylan Crews Debut: Expectations For Top Nationals Prospect
Image credit: (Photo/Tom DiPace)
Dylan Crews, one of baseball’s top prospects, will make his Nationals debut tonight at 6:45 p.m. ET at home against the Yankees. It’s the second high-profile debut for a Washington prospect in as many months, following James Wood’s arrival in early July. Below, we answer four key questions to help you prepare for Crews’ initial foray against big league pitching.
Dylan Crews Is A Big Leaguer. This Is A Big Deal Right?
Absolutely. The No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft is already arriving in the majors. This means the first, second, fourth and sixth picks from the 2023 draft are already big leaguers. Only two of the top 10 picks from the 2022 draft have reached the majors so far.
Crews ranks No. 4 on the current Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list. That Top 10 is thinner than normal thanks to recent graduations, but he ranks among the best prospects in the minors.
Crews’ arrival is also notable because it is a further big step in the Nationals’ rebuild. With the 22-year-old Crews in the lineup, the Nationals now have 21-year-old outfielder James Wood, 23-year-old shortstop CJ Abrams. 24-year-old second baseman Luis Garcia and 25-year-old catcher Keibert Ruiz. Third baseman Brady House is in Triple-A as well, so the Nats’ youth movement is well on the way.
That’s vital for a team that will finish this year with a fifth-straight losing record. The Nationals’ last winning record came in 2019, the year they won the World Series.
So How Would You Describe His 2024 MiLB Season?
It’s been OK. Crews has been a slightly above-average hitter in two stops. He has yet to have a stretch of dominance like he showed throughout his college career. Crews hit .311 with five home runs in his first month of pro ball (August 2023) when he largely played at Low-A Fredericksburg. He has yet to hit .300 in any month since, and his four home runs this month is his second highest monthly total as a pro.
Crews hit .273/.343/.446 at Double-A Harrisburg and .265/.340/.455 at Triple-A Rochester.
That was significantly above the average production for the Eastern League (.238/.321/.374) and slightly better than the average hitter in the International League (.255/.345/.421).
There are a significant number of prospects who are Crews’ age or younger who have had better seasons in the upper minors. Fellow 2023 draftees Kristian Campbell, Matt Shaw, Kyle Teel and Luke Keaschall all had better seasons in Double-A or above, and Crews’ season also was topped by younger players like 20-year-old outfielder Roman Anthony, 20-year-old catcher Samuel Basallo and 21-year-old shortstop Carson Williams.
What Does The Analytical Data Say About Crews?
In many ways, Crews isn’t terribly different from the hitter we watched at LSU for three outstanding seasons. When comparing his exit velocity data year over year, there’s been no substantial drop-off in where he ranks in terms of percentiles. Crews’ 109.7 mph 90th percentile exit velocity with LSU in 2023 ranked at the 99th percentile of NCAA Division I hitters. In 2024, Crews 106.2 mph 90th percentile EV ranks in the 95th percentile among MiLB hitters.
While this is a drop-off, it’s hardly noticeable when you consider the older and more talented hitter pool across all levels of the minor leagues. The 3.5 mph drop is also anticipated when moving from a metal bat to the standard wood bat in the professional game. Crews’ max exit velocity in 2024 is actually up from his 2023 max EV with LSU. In 2023, Crews max EV of 112.8 mph ranked in the 91st percentile among college hitters, while his 113.8 mph ranks in the 97th percentile this season.
| Player | Team | zMiss% | Chase% | Swing% | 90th EV | Max EV | GB% | FB% | AirPull% |
| Dylan Crews | LSU | 15.30% | 14.80% | 36.20% | 109.7 mph | 112.8 mph | 46.20% | 26.40% | 16.40% |
| Dylan Crews | Nationals | 15.80% | 28.60% | 49.50% | 106.2 mph | 113.8 mph | 40.30% | 30% | 17.20% |
Looking at other numbers, his zone-miss rate is nearly identical with only a .5% drop between 2023 and 2024. While Crews has actually improved his flyball rate and airpull% (percentage of fly balls pulled), his launch angle is steeper and his groundball rate is lower as a professional. Crews was criticized for his higher ground ball rate and lack of pull-side pop entering pro ball. He has made some adjustments to improve that.
That so far has come with a tradeoff of a much more aggressive approach. Known for his discerning eye, and elite on-base ability, Crews has seen his walk rate drop from 20.6% in 2023 at LSU to 8% across all levels in 2024 as a pro.
Crews’ swing rate has jumped from 36.2% at LSU to a 49.5% swing rate as a professional in 2024. He was one of the most patient hitters in college baseball with a 2023 swing rate that ranked in the seventh percentile among D-I hitters. In pro ball this year, he ranks in the 75th percentile in swing rate.
This has led to an increase in chase rate and has affected Crews’ overall expected production. There’s a lot to like under the hood of Crews’ profile, including power and contact, but are his more aggressive swing decisions behind his drop in production as a professional? Could those losses in on-base skills return in the coming years?
What Are Reasonable Expectations For Crews?
This gives him a chance to get acclimated to the major leagues in a relatively low-pressure environment. His bat-to-ball skills and power should play. Even if he finds himself a little over his head, it provides an offseason to-do list to prepare for 2025.
