Drake Baldwin, Rhett Lowder Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (Aug. 26)

10 Statcast Standouts

Drake Baldwin, C, Braves

You won’t currently find Baldwin’s name on the Top 100. However, he’s making a strong case to join the list come next spring. Based on his Triple-A performance so far, there’s an argument to be made that he might be baseball’s the third-best catching prospect behind Ethan Salas and Samuel Basallo with a much higher floor than the two phenoms and plenty of upside.

Esteemed members of the Prospect Jury, after I present to you the Prospecution’s case for Baldwin, you will undoubtedly find that Mr. Baldwin is, indeed. liable to be ranked in the top 30 of prospects in baseball, and should be talked about more on Twitter/X.

Exhibit A: The Top-Level Performance

Through Saturday’s games at Triple-A (more than 200 plate appearances), Baldwin sports an excellent .309/.425/.490 slash line, which is very close to the hallowed grounds of a 3/4/5 slash line and replete with more walks than strikeouts (41 to 33). That all adds up to a wRC+ of 142, which is limited by his inability to lift the ball. Sometimes you get a player and the underlying data is amazing, but the performance is mediocre. That is definitively not the case for Baldwin, who is dominating Triple-A.

Exhibit B: The Defense

This is what we wrote in his scouting report:

“Baldwin is a fair defender behind the plate. He works from a one-knee setup and presents the ball reasonably well. He improved his ability to control the running game, though his arm strength is just average. Baldwin mostly clocks 2.00-second pop times to second, but will occasionally hit 1.90 on a clean release.‘

Sounds like an average-ish defender to me, so the glove shouldn’t hold back the bat.

Exhibit C: Solid Gold Metrics Across the Board

Gold is good, purple is bad. For some of these charts, what a batter is doing well and what they aren’t is sometimes nuanced. In Baldwin’s case, he does everything very well, except he doesn’t get the ball in the air. In some ways, this is reminiscent of what we saw with James Wood (with less raw power) before his callup.

There are very few players playing at Triple-A with such a pristine playing card. Not only does he chase much less than the average MLB player, he combines that with above-average in-zone aggression. Some players avoid chase by being passive. Not Baldwin, who has the rare ability to both be more aggressive in-zone than average, as well as more passive out-of-zone than average. He shows this against almost all pitch types, suggesting that he has plus to plus-plus pitch recognition.

Scan down to the bottom line and you’ll see that he’s not only avoiding chase, but he’s able to avoid swinging and missing when he does chase, which means that his 41-to-33 walk-to-strikeout ratio is substantially backed up by the underlying data.

His 107 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and 92 mph average exit velocity both point to roughly 65-grade raw power, but it will likely play close to average given his 6.5-degree average launch angle. He’ll need to improve that substantially to fully maximize his potential.

Exhibit D: Just as Good Against Lefties

Some lefthanded batters show a major drop-off when they have the platoon disadvantage, but not Baldwin. We can quibble and point to a slightly worse contact rate on pitches he chases, but every other metric is identical to his overall numbers. This is as close to a flawless profile as you’ll find: an exciting blend of floor and ceiling given the approach, discipline, pitch recognition and contact skills, combined with the ability to hit the ball really really hard. He’ll likely just be very good if he can’t learn to lift the ball, but the impact exit velocities are there if he ever figures that out.

Rhett Lowder, RHP, Reds

Lowder is generally viewed as future mid-rotation piece, which is high praise for virtually any pitching prospect outside of perhaps Jackson Jobe. This reputation is mostly due to his fastball being a fringe-average pitch with subpar shape, but good velocity. The dotted line is the amount of ride a typical pitcher will get on his fastball given his height and release point, and Lowder’s fastball gets about one inch less ride, which makes it difficult for it to play as a swing-and-miss pitch.

He throws a true sinker along with the four-seam with a very similar spin axis but gets a tremendous amount of vertical movement deviation, making the pitch an exceptional contact management pitch, especially with runners on base. I have the pitch as about 0.5 runs better than average per 100 pitches, and it looks like it will be an effective pitch against righties.

The changeups didn’t get any whiffs in his Triple-A debut, but it has great shape with negative vert, tons of vertical movement deviation and excellent fade. If he learns to sell the pitch better, this will be an absolute weapon against lefthanded batters. In the small Triple-A sample we have, his release point on the changeup matched the sinker. He pairs his FF/SL release points and his SL/CH release points, which is interesting. Given the similar movement profiles of the sinker and changeup, I’d love to see these closer to the four-seam fastball, if possible.

He rounds out the profile with a 2800 rpm deathball slider, with almost -4 inches of vertical movement (drops more than gravity). It clears the critical 85 mph bar most sliders need to be effective and should be an absolute weapon against righties and lefties.

His ability to leverage seam-shifted wake effects on both the sinker and changeup suggests to me a pitcher who understands and values pitch shapes and is able to properly execute them. It’s not easy to add vertical ride to a four-seam fastball, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Lowder is able to get the pitch closer to average shape-wise, as he does have the ability to spin the slider. If he can transfer that ability to the fastball, he could get that 1-2 inches of ride that he needs to make the pitch work.

The arsenal is probably enough right now to be a viable major league starter, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Lowder add a curveball or sweeper to the repertoire. This may look like a third or fourth starter type on the surface, but guys with advanced pitch-ability and at least two plus non-fastballs are good bets to have long careers. It won’t be long before Lowder is making some noise in the majors.

Liam Hendriks, RHP, Red Sox

I usually only write about prospects in this series, but I couldn’t resist talking about one of my absolute favorite baseball players. Hendriks is a true fighter, beating cancer and now fighting his way back from Tommy John surgery. There’s no player in the entire world of baseball I’m rooting for more than Hendriks to make a triumphant return to the majors.

We are very fortunate to have one inning of data for Hendriks at Triple-A; it was extremely promising. Most pitchers take a little bit of time getting back to their original stuff levels, but Hendriks is already showing the elite fastball shape that made him one of the best closers in baseball. His 19 inches of induced vertical break is nearly two inches above expected, and he combines that with elite pitch extension and 95 mph velocity. If this the floor for his fastball quality, that points to a fastball that will return to plus-plus as he gets back to 100%.

The slider looks to be close to his pre-injury form, when he was throwing a bit harder. The single-sample curveball featured about four inches more depth, which could make it an even better pitch than it was previously. Hopefully we get some more Triple-A data for Hendriks and we can make a more confident evaluation. Keep on fighting Liam, we’re rooting for you!

Lake Bachar, RHP, Padres

Reliever Lake Bachar will join the #Padres tomorrow. https://t.co/bK59Dj1Han

— Jeff Sanders (@sdutSanders) August 25, 2024

I love it when a player I’ve never heard of gets called up the day before I sit down to write the weekly installment. I’m constantly surprised by how many new names pop up each week, all deserving of attention. Bachar has had a good season to date, striking out 81 batter in 67.2 innings. His 95 mph fastball grades out as slightly below-average given the slightly below-average shape. He combines that with an excellent slider that morphs into a sweeper shape at times. It’s an excellent swing-and-miss pitch and looks to be most effective for him when he gets 8-12 inches of sweep on the pitch.

He threw a split-change earlier in the season, but has mostly abandoned that for the classic 95-and-a-slider relief profile. It’s been a long slog for Bachar to make his major league debut at 29 years of age. Perseverance pays off.

Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Guardians

I wrote about Manzardo two months ago, and I noted the subpar exit velocities against left-handed pitching. The story hasn’t changed, as Manzardo has an elite profile vs. righties, with tremendous contact rates paired with the dream exit velocity/launch angle combination. His contact rates against lefties are better than righties, so he may be making an intentional trade-off to sacrifice power for contact when he has the platoon disadvantage.

We don’t have swing-speed data for Triple-A, so it’s hard to say if this is an intentional approach, or he just isn’t squaring up the ball as much against lefties. Despite all that, his ability to get great loft on the ball allows him to do damage. I’d love to see him sell out a little more for power against lefties, but the approach may work as is. He’s had almost 700 plate appearances in Triple-A, and the Guardians might benefit from using him against righties down the stretch.

Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians

1st Triple-A HR!#Guardians 22yr old OF prospect Chase DeLauter crushes a 384 foot solo HR in the 7th inning tonight for Columbus 103.0 mph off the bat for his 1st HR at the Triple-A level!

That's now 5 HR's in his last 10 games for DeLauter!#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/n9OrpF5ajj

— Guardians Prospective (@CleGuardPro) August 24, 2024

It’s early, but DeLauter simply doesn’t chase, nor does he whiff very much. He’s put up an 85% contact rate or better at Double-A and now Triple-A when he’s been on the field. He’s a star in the making, with the only question being health. As of the time of writing, we only have about 50 pitches of data, but they are very encouraging. We’ll check back in at the end of the season with a more detailed analysis.

Kristian Cambell, 2B, Red Sox

Geoff Pontes wrote about Campbell as a hitting prospect with Standout Data, where his exit velocities suggested closer to 60-grade raw power, compared to what he’s shown in the very small Triple-A sample so far, which is closer to 50 raw. His contact rates (over 80%) and discipline (chase rate in the 25% range) have remained consistent. If the power looks more like it did in Double-A, this is a potential plus contact/plus power bat that will play up the middle. He’s right up there with Kyle Teel, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer as potential impact players on the doorstep of the major leagues.

Thomas Saggese, 2B/SS, Cardinals

Saggese in a nutshell: an aggressive hitter, who can make contact even when he chases (especially against breaking balls), below-average raw power, but will run into home runs because he can consistently lift the ball against all pitch types. His top-line performance is likely being held back by his approach, but that might be what he needs to get to his power. If it all comes together, he could have a career that resembles Tommy Edman.

Brandon Sproat, RHP, Mets

Sproat’s subpar fastball shape is easy to spot, with most of his pitches getting less ride than expected given his arm slot. He makes up for it with tremendous velocity, averaging 96.5 mph, and topping out at 100. He doesn’t have the ability to spin his fastball with sub-2000 rpms on the pitch, so the shape may not be entirely fixable. The velocity makes up for a lot of the shape deficiencies, so it will likely grade out a tick below average from a stuff perspective.

Often lost in the discourse of fastball quality vs fastball velocity, is the impact that plus-plus velocity has on the quality of non-fastballs. In Sproat’s case, this will help both his gyro slider and sweeper play up, giving him potentially three plus breaking balls, as the curveball has great depth at 80 mph. He rounds it out with a fantastic changeup with depth and fade, that makes him a legitimate five-pitch starter with great velocity. This is the kind of profile that would be a consensus top-20 overall prospect if he had better fastball shape, but the elite velocity will make his non-fastball arsenal play up. He’ll be a monster out of the bullpen, but he’s definitely got a starter’s repertoire.

Thomas Harrington, RHP, Pirates

The pitch classification is a little wonky here, so ignore the labels. The pitch labeled a “curveball” clustered around 10 HB / 4 IVB is a changeup. The Pirates pitching dev should be getting a lot more credit than they do, and Harrington is looking like another win for the org.

Harrington works off a solid fastball around 92 mph that he fills the zone with, with a 72% strike rate. It doesn’t have bat missing shape or velocity, so he’ll need to rely on command to make the pitch work. His changeup gets a ton of swing and miss and looks to be a promising pitch. He throws both a gyro slider and sweeper, as well as a hard curveball at 82 mph with great depth given the velocity. There’s a lot to like with Harrington. Given the depth the Pirates have in their rotation and Bubba Chandler knocking down the door to the majors, Harrington should have plenty of time to refine his stuff and fill is a fantastic option to fill out the back end of a rotation.