Drake Baldwin, Axiel Plaz Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (July 15)
Image credit: Drake Baldwin (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
Every Monday morning we’ll highlight several players who stood out to us based on their underlying Statcast metrics. These are not full scouting reports, but can often serve as good early indicators of prospects who might be ready to break out or are demonstrating MLB-ready skills.
I was away last weekend, so had to skip a week. Two weeks ago, we did a deep dive into Coby Mayo, who I dubbed the Platonic Ideal of the Analytical Data Darling and showed what Jackson Holliday needs to work on while in Triple-A. This week, we’ll be discussing:
- A Futures game standout
- A victory lap on a breakout Pirates catcher
- A Red Sox prospect re-ascending
- A White Sox pitcher that added 2 mph to his fastball
- A Dodgers pitcher that will debut after the All-Star Break
- A Cubs pitcher on the IL
- An Athletics OF with whiff questions
- The next Steven Kwan?
- The real next Steven Kwan
- The next pitcher callup for the Orioles
You can access the data below via Baseball Savant.
Related prospect rankings
10 Statcast Standouts
Drake Baldwin, C, Braves
Drake was a standout performer in Saturday’s Futures game, so he warrants a deeper dive and headline spot in today’s article. Let’s look at some of his power metrics and how they compare to the major league average, with the caveat that he’s producing these numbers against Triple-A pitching:
- Max Exit Velocity: 112 MPH (2 mph above MLB median)
- Average Exit Velocity: 93 MPH (4 mph above MLB median)
- 90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108 MPH (4 mph above MLB median)
Those metrics would suggest raw power grades of 55, 70 and 70 respectively, and combined would lend support to giving him a plus or better grade for his raw power.
That’s impressive on it’s own, but what makes it really shine is his 90.6% zone contact rate, which is exceptional, and his chase rate of 24.9%, which is about 5.5% better than the MLB average chase rate. He also has excellent discipline against all pitch types, with the only flaw being a 7.6 degree average launch angle. More importantly, he maintains this excellent discipline against lefthanders and actually his chase rates and zone contact rates to 21.3% and 95.7%. It’s not a huge sample size, but this is a high-level blend of contact and power, without a platoon issue.
Drake Baldwin’s Swing Decisions & Contact Profile
The picture paints a very clear story. The largest boxes are in the zone, or just above, with small boxes (indicating fewer swings) scattered around the edges. He also fills the zone with deep red, indicating he’s making a ton of contact in zone. He’ll whiff when he chases, but he doesn’t chase. We tagged him early on is his Triple-A career, and he’s looked even better since then.
Axiel Plaz, C, Pirates
A month ago, I wrote this about Plaz: “Plaz is hitting an underwhelming .208/.318/.403 in the early going, but I’m quite confident that his stat line will soon reflect his underlying skills as the season goes on.”
Fast forward to today, and his top-line performance has him atop the RoboScout Low-A leaderboard, with 12 HRs in 40 games, and an .852 OPS on the year, as an 18 year old in Single-A.
Axiel’s bubble stands out, as he’s very young for the level, is getting the ball in the air and is managing to keep his swing-and-miss at a reasonable level. Those are the ingredients that predict future success for a young hitter, though he’ll likely need to improve his contact skills as he moves up the ladder. Axiel Plaz has a great name, and it’s one you should definitely know.
Nick Yorke, 2B, Red Sox
Is Nick Yorke a top 100 prospect again? Ever since his promotion to Triple-A, he has found his groove and is slashing a robust .322/.416/.525 through Saturday’s games. We now have a sizable sample, so we can see if he’s showing elite hit tool traits.
Nick Yorke vs Breaking Pitches (Sliders, Sweepers and Curves)
This is the key to Yorke’s success. We see very small amounts of chase, but also a strong ability to fight off breaking balls just below the zone. That makes him a very tough out, since he won’t chase the breaking balls, and even if he does, there’s a good chance he’ll be able to make contact.
He’s also able to cover the inner-half of the plate with power, making good quality contact everywhere in the zone except the outer third. That all adds up to a player with a lot of gold on his metrics card:
The key takeaways from the last chart are Yorke’s 92.7 mph average EV (3.7 mph above MLB average) and his 105.9 mph 90th percentile EV (1.9 MPH above MLB average), as well as all the solid gold coloring on his chase rates. This isn’t a weak-hitting, bloop singles guy; far from it. Yorke has found a way to tap into average-to-plus raw power, leveraging plus-plus plate discipline with very good contact skills. The underlying data would strongly suggest that Yorke has recaptured his top 100 form.
River Ryan, SP, Dodgers
As per Fabian Ardaya, River Ryan is likely to be called up, which is as good a reason as any to write about him.
Ryan shows a true starter’s arsenal, with six distinct pitch shapes. Let’s break down each pitch type.
Despite having six pitches, he throws his fastball a lot, relying on his plus velo at 97 mph (T100), which offsets his somewhat subpar ride (about 1-2 inches below average given the release traits). It’s close enough to average that the velocity will make up for it, since fastball velocity is a big factor in making secondaries play up.
His primary secondary is the slider, which is at least an average pitch from a stuff perspective, averaging 88-89 mph with great depth. He throws a second gyro pitch with the cutter that’s closer to 93 mph. He goes to it less often, but might it be a better pitch. These are two distinct gyro shapes, which you don’t often see from most pitchers.
He mixes in a few curveballs that grade out very well and is performing quite well at Triple-A. It’s got huge depth at 86 mph, in line with his power arsenal, with no pitch below the 86 mph threshold.
His sinker is also a good pitch, despite the lack of whiffs. It comes out of the hand a little slower than the 4-seam, but manages launch angles exceptionally well. His changeup has similar shape to the sinker and functions much the same way, with batters rolling over it.
This is a surefire starter’s arsenal, and he looks like a good bet to stick in the Dodger’s rotation.
Sean Burke, SP, White Sox
We often come across pitching prospects and say something to the effect of “if he finds another tick or two, he’ll be a legit prospect”. Well, 6-foot-6 Sean Burke did just that. Last year in Triple-A, he had a mediocre fastball, sitting 92-93, with 18 inches of IVB. This year, he has dropped his release point by about five inches, kept the ride and added more than 2 mph to his fastball. That all adds up to a plus fastball from a shape perspective, though he still needs to command it better.
His slider hasn’t performed well, but it has the ingredients to be good, with high amounts of gyro spin, and is above the 85 mph threshold. His go-to whiff pitch is his big curveball at 78 mph, which is running a 47.5% whiff rate.
He rounds out his arsenal with a changeup that he uses against lefties. It has 14 inches of fade and is a reliable fourth offering. All of his secondaries have swinging strike rates above 16%, suggesting “if he finds another tick of command, he’ll really be a legit prospect”. We shall see if he can improve that part of his game as well.
Cade Horton, SP, Cubs
Horton is currently on the IL, but I haven’t written about him yet, so I’m going to rectify that today. He popped when I was looking at slider whiff rates in Triple-A. Horton gets lots of whiffs on his secondaries, and his fastball is more geared for contact management (a la Justin Steele).
I have his fastball as roughly average from a stuff perspective, but the cutting action will allow it to play better than you’d think if you just looked at the ride. It’s an unusual look for batters and while it won’t blow hitters away, it will work well enough.
What makes him special is his slider, which Triple-A batters just can’t touch, getting whiffs on 40% of swings vs both LHBs and RHBs. He’s a primarily a two-pitch pitcher vs. righties, but will mix in the occasional change and curve, to good results. Against lefties, his changeup is filthy, getting whiffs on 23.5% of pitches and 53% of swings. Horton should be back at Triple-A soon, and when he is, we’ll do a deeper dive.
Colby Thomas, OF, Athletics
Thomas is off to a good start on the surface, hitting .309/.398/.543 in his first taste of Triple-A. We don’t have enough data to get super granular, but the early data are mixed. His Max EV of 109.7 is about MLB average, and his 90th percentile EV is well above-average, though his average exit velocity is well below-average. To make him even more average, his launch angle is also about the major league average.
While his chase rates are also roughly MLB average vs. Triple-A pitching, his contact rates and in-zone contact rates are well below-average in the early going. It’s far too little data to flag it as a huge concern, but the underlying metrics aren’t quite as exciting as the triple slash line.
Jostin Foscue, 2B, Rangers
Foscue makes the most out of his tools, clubbing 18 home runs last year and maintaining a very respectable .860 OPS in back-to-back years. He has hit at every level and is a great example of a player who can climb the major league ladder without standout tools.
Foscue’s 85-86 mph average EV is well below-average, and most of the raw power metrics would give him 30-grade power, at best. Where he excels is in the plate skills, where he has a zone contact rate of 92%, an overall contact rate of 84% and a pristine chase rate of 20%. I’m not saying he’s the next Steven Kwan, but I’m not ruling it out either.
Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics
This guy might actually be the next Steven Kwan. I’m going to save a more detailed writeup on Wilson for when we’ve accumulated more data, so I’ll just write this one, totally absurd stat: Through Saturday, Wilson has swung at 135 Triple-A pitches and missed four times.
That’s a zone contact rate of 98.9%. If he’s not in the majors in a couple of weeks, he’s going to be the headliner with lots of charts. Be sure to read JJ Cooper’s writeup of Wilson, who has swung and missed just once since the piece ran.
Chayce McDermott, SP, Orioles
I’ve written about McDermott a few times, but I felt he’s a good pitcher for a new visual:
The size of the box indicates how often he throws the pitch, with the color indicating how often he gets a whiff on the pitch. We see a general tendency to target the fastball up, but he really needs to get it above the zone for it to eat. It’s not pristine command, with lots of pitches way above the zone, but he’s targeting the top, which is generally what you want to see.
This is the same chart, but showing where batters are swinging. He needs to get the fastball just above the zone to maximize the pitch, as it’s very clear that batters don’t chase his super-high fastballs.
He does a decent job of getting chases on the changeup just below the zone to lefties, and it’s lethal when he’s able to locate it there. His command of the pitch is solid:
He’s clearly trying to bury the pitch, which indicates he has a good understanding of where the pitch plays well.
The cutter is more effective against righties. He does a great job commanding it away from them, and down and in the lefties.
McDermott uses his curveballs as a chase weapon against lefties, and it looks to be pretty effective when he’s able to get batters to swing at it. Cade Povich just got sent down, so look for McDermott to get the next shot to crack the Orioles’ rotation.
