Draft Day One Sees Several Surprises

The Philadelphia Phillies wouldn’t confirm it until right up until the eve of the start of Thursday’s 2016 Draft.

But they’d identified outfielder Mickey Moniak, out of La Costa Canyon High in suburban San Diego, as the potential No. 1 pick for at least a couple of weeks. And as predicted for the previous two weeks at Baseball America, the Phillies went through with it and selected Moniak first overall, making him the fifth San Diego-area player selected with the top pick since 2000.

Moniak joins Adrian Gonzalez (2000), Matt Bush (2004), Stephen Strasburg (2009) and Brady Aiken (2014) as No. 1 picks from the San Diego area. He started off a first round that included several surprises, particularly among the pitchers. A quick rundown:

• Florida lefthander A.J. Puk, ranked No. 1 on the #BA500, was in the mix with Moniak for the top selection, but once he didn’t go to Philadelphia, he wound up falling five spots to Oakland.

Puk wasn’t even the first pitcher selected. The Braves, picking third, were tied to college bats for much of the spring but preferred Nick Senzel to outfielders Kyle Lewis and Corey Ray. When the Tennessee third baseman went No. 2 to the Reds, the Braves decided to go for New York prep righty Ian Anderson, No. 11 on the BA 500 but a player long coveted by the Braves. In fact, scouting director Brian Bridges expressed strong interest in Anderson as early in the draft season as February.

• Lewis was one of the college players who wound up falling a bit later in the draft than expected, along with college pitchers such as Dakota Hudson, the Mississippi State righthander who wound up going No. 34 overall to St. Louis, the third of the Cardinals’ three first-round picks. Lewis, who was rumored to be in the Phillies’ mix at No. 1 in the final weeks, wound up falling to the 11th selection, where the Mariners pounced.

• The two 17-year-old high school players with troubled makeup still wound up in the first round. The Red Sox pounced on New Jersey prep lefthander Jason Groome. Groome told reporters in a conference call that the Red Sox were his favorite team and that “everything happens for a reason.” He had to be ecstatic that he was picked 12th after rumors of off-field issues seemed poised to drop him further down the first round, but still could prove a difficult sign.

Meanwhile, Puerto Rican shortstop Delvin Perez went 23rd overall to the Cardinals with their first pick after he was reported to have tested positive for PEDs on his pre-draft drug test. MLB Network analyst Harold Reynolds blasted the selection for “sending the wrong message” on a night when the sport is supposed to celebrate amateur baseball, but the Cardinals saw value in a player ranked No. 7 on the BA 500 and getting him so low.

First Day Grades

I’m not going to grade every draft, but some quick thoughts on the teams that I thought knocked it out on the first day, provided they sign all the players they picked.

• Braves: Atlanta went bold and got three high-ceiling prep arms in Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz and Kyle Muller, plus Brett Cumberland, California’s slugging, switch-hitting catcher. Cumberland might not stay behind the plate to handle all those prep arms but he can hit, and the Braves’ minor league pitching now could rate as the deepest in the game.

• Phillies: Moniak and righthander Kevin Gowdy aren’t overly physical, but the two Southern California prep products have a chance to join the Phillies’ rebuild fairly quickly for prep players. Moniak has a special bat and motor, according to most scouts who have seen him, while Gowdy has one of the cleanest arms in the draft in terms of ease of operation and a feel for his craft. If his velocity becomes more consistently average to above-average, look out.

• Reds: Cincinnati got the best college bat in the draft in Nick Senzel, added a high-ceiling prep bat in Taylor Trammell and added catcher Chris Okey from Clemson—whom it tried to draft three years ago—with its third pick. Cincinnati added three potential regulars with the bat to a farm system that’s plenty deep in arms. The Reds got better.

• Athletics: Oakland needs pitching and added three college arms that could be big league starters. For all the knocks on him voiced Thursday night, A.J. Puk still throws 95-97 at his best with a plus slider, good changeup and potentially durable body. The A’s also got his Florida teammate and roommate Logan Shore, plus Cal ace and Bay Area resident Daulton Jefferies. One of the trio should be able to be in Oakland’s rotation in the next couple of seasons.

Not For Me

• Padres: San Diego might wind up with three pitchers who work out in Cal Quantrill, Eric Lauer and Reggie Lawson, and maybe the Hudson Sanchez gambit will work out. He was No. 108 on the BA 500 and looked like Plan B for when Delvin Perez was gone, taken by the Cardinals one spot earlier. It just didn’t seem like San Diego leveraged its four selections and large bonus pool as well as other clubs did. Let’s see what San Diego does on days two and three.

• Angels: Last year, Los Angeles took Taylor Ward, a catch-and-throw stalwart who has questions about the bat. He was No. 70 on the BA 500 and went No. 26 overall. This year, the Angels took a catcher in Matt Thaiss who is nearly Ward’s opposite, an all-bat lefthanded hitter with power. Thaiss has improved defensively but most scouts give him a low probability of catching. It’s likely Thaiss is a future first baseman; while he can hit, the Angels are a notoriously low-athleticism big league roster, and Thaiss won’t help in that regard. I like the player and the potential value at No. 16 but not the fit.

• Cardinals: I’m with Harold Reynolds on drafting Perez; I was surprised that St. Louis took him with its first selection but it obviously felt a team such as San Diego would take Perez before the Cardinals’ next pick at No. 33. It does send a bad message. I love Dylan Carlson but felt like 33 was a bit high. Dakota Hudson and Connor Jones at 34 and 70 provide value considering both were thought to be going higher and should give the class good balance.