Crystal Ball: 2016 MLB Preview
Baseball America editors answer the important questions about the 2016 season
Which team had the best offseason?
John Manuel: Cubs. Chicago both helped itself by adding Jason Heyward and John Lackey, but it took them from National League Central division rival St. Louis. The Cubs also held onto their impact young big leaguers and solid prospect depth.
J.J. Cooper: Cubs. The Cubs won 97 games last year. They added two of the better free agents available (Heyward and Zobrist) to join a club that has a lineup just coming into it’s prime. Jake Arrieta may not match what he did last year (how could he?) but the Chicago should be even better in 2016.
Ben Badler: Cubs. The Cubs already had the best young lineup in baseball under team control for the next several years. Now they added Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist? That’s terrifying.
Ted Cahill: Braves. In separate trades, the Braves added Dansby Swanson, the top overall pick in the draft, and more high-end pitching. They avoided adding bloated contracts and did some bargin bin shopping that should at least provide them with some more trade chips this summer.
Jim Shonerd: Red Sox. The Red Sox sorely needed to address their pitching and did just that with David Price and Craig Kimbrel.
Vince Lara: Cubs. Not crazy about the Jason Heyward signing, but Ben Zobrist and Lackey were smart additions.
Josh Norris: Mets. They got Yoenis Cespedes to re-sign. They used an expendable arm to replace Daniel Murphy at second and they still have the arguable best rotation in baseball. About the only negative was Jenrry Mejia becoming the first player to get banished for life since Pete Rose.
Which team had the most disappointing offseason?
John Manuel: Dodgers. The Dodgers still will contend, but losing Zack Greinke to division rival Arizona robbed L.A. of its biggest weapon, its 1-2 punch of Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. Even with their MLB-high payroll of nearly $300 million, the Dodgers still have holes on their big league roster.
J.J. Cooper: Angels. The Angels have one of the best players of all-time in the prime of his career, but they didn’t do much in the offseason to improve Mike Trout’s supporting cast from last year’s 85-win club. Los Angeles appears to have hit its financial limits and doesn’t have much farm system help on the way.
Ben Badler: Rockies. The Braves, Brewers and Phillies are going to be terrible this year, but at least you can see a plan for each team to get back to contention. I can’t say the same for the Rockies.
Jim Shonerd: Reds. Jenrry Mejia. But if we’re talking about teams, I’ll go with the Reds. Clearly they’re in a rebuild, and Aroldis Chapman’s situation was complicated, but their returns for Chapman and Todd Frazier were underwhelming.
Vince Lara: Reds. They got weak returns in trades of Chapman—understandably—and less understandably, Todd Frazier.
Josh Norris: Rockies. Say what you will about tanking and extreme makeovers, but at least they’re tangible plans. Colorado does boast Charlie Blackmon, and Nolan Arenado and a loaded farm system as future building blocks, but their pitching staff will make them non-competitive in 2016.
Which team will be the biggest surprise in 2016?
John Manuel: White Sox. It seemed like the White Sox had a good offseason in 2014-2015, but it didn’t work out in the regular season. This offseason, they’ve finally found a third baseman in Todd Frazier, shored up second with Brett Lawrie and should get improvement from second-year lefty Carlos Rodon.
J.J. Cooper: Indians. In each of the last two seasons the Indians have disappointed. With this pitching staff, a full season of Francisco Lindor and outfield help on the way, Cleveland should make the playoffs (probably as a wild card) for only the third time in the past 15 seasons.
Ted Cahill: Braves. Baseball doesn’t look primed for surprise this year with clear delineation between the contenders and the pretenders, but the Braves have the young talent to make more noise than expected.
Ben Badler: Nationals. The Nationals were a disaster in 2015, but the pitching is still strong, most of the underlying talent is still there and better health should help them rebound in 2016.
Jim Shonerd: Nationals. Last year humbled the Nationals, but the talent is sitll there for them to threaten the Mets, even more so if youngsters like Michael A. Taylor and Trea Turner can have breakthrough seasons.
Vince Lara: Marlins. Their surprisingly solid rotation was helped by the Wei-Yin Chen signing, and a return to health of Jose Fernandez will boost it even more.
Josh Norris: Diamondbacks. They might not make the playoffs, but the additions of Greinke, Miller and Clippard will give the team a big boost from last year’s trudge to September. It also doesn’t hurt to have Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta and AJ Pollock in the mix.
The biggest storyline of the 2016 season will be?
John Manuel: The NL West should be a three-team race, with the high-dollar Dodgers, Diamondbacks and free-agent fortified Giants making for the game’s best pennant race.
J.J. Cooper: The National League’s lack of a middle—a whole lot of 85-plus win teams and a lot of sub-75 win teams—will continue to raise questions about whether the current CBA’s structure needs to be tweaked.
Ben Badler: Steroid use remains prevalent at the amateur level and in MLB. It’s a matter of time (probably a Friday at 5 pm) before more big name users become public.
Ted Cahill: The chorus against tanking is only going to get louder as the chasm between the top and the bottom of the National League grows this summer.
Jim Shonerd: Is this finally the Cubs’ year?
Vince Lara: Labor talks, the first with Rob Manfred as commisioner trying to keep labor peace.
Josh Norris: The Cubs’ run to the playoffs and their first World Series win since 1908. Steve Bartman and Billy Goats everywhere are forgiven.
Meet the breakout star of 2016 …
Manuel: George Springer
Cooper: Luis Severino
Cahill: Joc Pederson
Badler: Addison Russell
Shonerd: Trea Turner
Lara: Jonathan Schoop
Norris: Lance McCullers
Which player will bounce back in 2016 after a down 2015?
Manuel: Jeff Samardzija
Cooper: Jimmy Rollins
Badler: Anthony Rendon
Cahill: Jedd Gyorko
Shonerd: Johnny Cueto.
Lara: Jeff Samardzija
Norris: Robinson Cano
The biggest name to be traded in 2016 will be?
Manuel: Hanley Ramirez
Cooper: Jonathan Lucroy
Badler: Jonathan Lucroy
Cahill: Yasiel Puig
Shonerd: Jay Bruce
Lara: Jose Fernandez
Norris: Carlos Gonzalez
Better season in 2016: Buxton or Seager?
Manuel: Seager
Cooper: Seager
Badler: Seager
Shonerd: Seager
Lara: Seager
Norris: Seager
The top three picks in the 2017 draft will belong to . . .
Manuel: 1. Reds. 2. Brewers. 3. Phillies.
Cooper: 1. Brewers 2. Reds. 3. Braves.
Badler: 1. Phillies, 2. Braves, 3. Rockies.
Cahill: 1. Reds, 2. Brewers, 3. Padres.
Shonerd: 1. Braves. 2. Brewers. 3. Phillies.
Lara: 1. Reds, 2. Padres, 3. Phillies.
Norris: 1. Brewers. 2. Rockies. 3. Braves.
2016 World Series Prediction?
Manuel: Red Sox over Cubs in five.
Cooper: Cubs over Astros in six.
Badler: Cubs over Astros in six.
Cahill: Nationals over Red Sox in five.
Shonerd: Royals over Cubs in seven.
Lara: Red Sox over Mets in six.
Norris: Cubs over Red Sox in seven.
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