Jack Leiter, Craig Yoho Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (Aug. 19th)
Image credit: Jack Leiter (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
Every Monday morning we’ll highlight several players who stood out to us based on their underlying Statcast metrics. These are not full scouting reports, but can often serve as good early indicators of prospects who might be ready to break out or are demonstrating MLB-ready skills.
Last week, we took a trip down memory lane and discussed the House of Radke and how Zebby Matthews appears to be an evolved version of the Twins’ penchant for developing pitchers who don’t walk anyone. We also discussed the very exciting Bubba Chandler, who stuck out 11 batters on Friday.
This week we’ll discuss 10 players, including:
- The Fresh Prince of Bend-Air
- The key to Jack Leiter’s success, and how the PCL has affected him
- A tall, lanky, Yankees starting pitching prospect
- A tall, lanky, Cardinals starting pitching prospect
- THE MIZ, again
- A Blue Jays SS with huge upside
- Were we wrong about this Nationals top prospect?
- An early look at Kyle Teel’s data
- The best prospect traded at the deadline
- THE MARTIAN
Related Prospect Rankings
10 Statcast Standouts
Craig Yoho, RHP, Brewers
Devin Williams, who reigns supreme with his Airbender changeup, has been a mainstay in the Brewers’ bullpen for quite some time. I wasn’t planning on headlining with Craig Yoho, but when I saw his movement chart, I couldn’t help but think there might be a new Fresh Prince of Bend-Air. Before we nerd out on pitch movement plots, let’s take a peek at some awesome videos Josh Norris shot:
Last October, Geoff Pontes tagged Yoho as an MLB draft pick that could reach the majors in 2024. Here’s what he wrote about him:
“He mixes a two-seam fastball at 92-93 mph, with nearly 20 inches of armside run on average, a curveball in the mid-70s with two-plane depth and late sweep and a changeup with serious tumble and fade. If Yoho can consistently throw strikes, he’s got big league bullpen stuff already.”
Let’s take a look at Yoho’s unique movement chart:
We see a changeup with negative IVB that he somehow throws with top spin. His two main pitches have identical vertical spin and almost mirrored horizontal spin, with the curveball going glove side and the changeup moving arm side. This gives him over three feet of horizontal movement separation between the two pitches. I look at a lot of these charts, and I don’t come across this very often.
His changeup looks similar to Devin Williams from a movement standpoint:
Williams’ changeup gets some extra depth from movement deviation, while Yoho’s actually doesn’t fall as much as the spin axis would indicate. So while they look similar on a movement chart, they are actually quite different under the hood.
How much of an outlier is Yoho’s changeup? Let’s take a look at some physics:
Here, we’re looking at a chart that shows you how much each pitch type moves on average given the spin axis (righthanded pitches only). I’m planning a Physics of Baseball series for sometime after the season is over, but for now, I want you to focus on the blue changeup line. We see that once a pitch dips below 90 degrees (or above 270 degrees), the spin is moving the ball downwards, much like a curveball (but in the opposite horizontal direction).
My sample starts to taper off around 268 degrees. Yoho’s changeup? Almost 300 degrees. There is literally no pitch like it in the major leagues. It’s a complete outlier, quite literally off the chart. I had the privilege of having Meg Rowley (Managing Editor of FanGraphs) edit my work many years ago, so I’ll refrain from describing Yoho’s changeup as “very unique”, instead, I’ll merely describe it as an outlier of an outlier of a pitch.
Jack Leiter, RHP, Rangers
The Leiter family appears to have a genetic predisposition to becoming professional pitchers. Jack’s father, Al, was one of three brothers who pitched in the major or minor leagues, and is the most well-known of the Leiters. Al’s brother, Mark, pitched almost 1200 major league innings, and his son, Mark Jr., has been pitching in the majors since 2017, mostly for the Cubs. Jack’s other uncle, Kurt, reached Double-A for the Orioles in 1984, and his cousin (Kurt’s son) Cam Leiter, is our No. 20 college draft prospect for 2025 and has perhaps the best breaking ball in the draft class.
While it’s not uncommon to see sons of major leaguers make the show, it’s very rare to see three different brothers each have a son make the major leagues. We’ll see if Cam gets there, but he’s well on the way. This is important context for when we evaluate Jack Leiter. Having family who have competed in the major leagues and a cousin who is currently in the major leagues, gives Jack a wealth of experience and knowledge he can tap into. When making a judgment about which players will “figure it out”, I’m always going to bet on the kid with MLB bloodlines. Jack is arguably at the top of that list.
I think this is particularly relevant for Jack, as the key to his success is how much ride he gets on the fastball. On Thursday, he had his best stuff pretty much across the board, averaging 98.6 mph and 17.1 inches of IVB, a key benchmark for him.
How important is ride for Jack’s fastball? Really important. If we split his fastballs into two buckets, we can see a stark contrast:
| Metric | Fastballs with 17″+ IVB | fastballs With <17″ of IVB |
|---|---|---|
| # of Pitches | 336 | 393 |
| Whiffs/Swing | 41% | 23% |
| Zone Whiffs/Swing | 39% | 14% |
| Slugging on Contact | .500 | .813 |
| HRs Allowed | 1 | 7 |
When Leiter can get at least 17 inches of IVB on his fastball, he can mow through Triple-A hitters, in- or out-of-zone. On the surface, Leiter has struggled to maintain above-average IVB on his fastball, which may be a cause for concern. However, there are many ballparks in the PCL that have thin air, making it harder to create movement. Here’s a chart that shows the average four-seam fastball IVB by venue, in the PCL and Coors Field (away pitchers only, so we’re not measuring organizational preference):
Keeping in mind that major league pitchers generally get more ride on their fastballs than minor leaguers, it’s quite eye-opening to see so many ballparks essentially operating like Coors Field. If I were developing a pitcher, especially one as good as Jack Leiter, I’d be leery of having him pitch in those environments. Leiter flashed some incredible stuff on Thursday, and after looking at the PCL IVB chart, I’m inclined to believe that’s the true Jack Leiter. Bet on the pedigree, bet on the bloodlines. Jack’s Back, and he’s going to be great.
Henry Lalane, LHP, Yankees
Lalane was a buzzy name here during the preseason. He’s had a slow start to the season, in part due to injury. With a pitcher this young, I would caution against reading too much into early velocity, given that he was more 93-95 last year, and is closer to 91 mph in the early going this year. He doesn’t have the ability to spin the ball, so we may see him lean into a more SSW, east-west profile, especially given the promising changeup:
It’s easy to see from the chart which of his changeups are getting whiffs: the ones with more fade and depth. This is all about a young pitcher learning to be more consistent with his pitches. The slider varies from a gyro slider with negative vert to a sweeper without outlier sweep. The four-seam fastball is about average shape-wise at its best, and he looks to be a prime candidate for a sinker given the arm angle. That will allow him to be fastball-changeup-slider (sweeper?) against righties and sinker-fastball-slider against lefties.
The numbers aren’t eye-popping, but given the lavish praise that scouts showered him with, my assumption is that the data will start to look more appealing as he gets back to 100%.
Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Brewers
I wrote about The Miz last week, but this week, we have a different Miz. Instead of coming out as a starter, he came out of the bullpen and reached another level. Josh Norris got some great video:
This is the chart I shared last week:
Notice the inconsistent fastball shape. Compare that to his bullpen performance on Thursday:
That’s an easy plus-plus fastball, with well above ride given his low release angle, with borderline elite extension at well over seven feet and elite velocity, touching 100 and averaging 98.5 mph. The big difference was the consistency of the shape coming out of the pen rather than as a starter, as well as another tick of fastball velocity.
Letting Misiorowski air it out in a relief role is a strong signal that the Brewers are going to add him to their bullpen for the stretch run. Along with Devin Williams, Craig Yoho and a returning Trevor Megill, it will give them a fearsome playoff pen that will be even more impactful given the more frequent off days.
Chen-Wei Lin, RHP, Cardinals
It’s been almost three months since I checked in on Lin, and he remains a very promising, albeit somewhat puzzling prospect. Let’s look at his most recent start:
We see a fastball that has two-seam shape, which will make it more of a contact-management pitch, rather than a swing-and-miss pitch. It’s a hard pitch to evaluate, but it’s at least an average pitch stuff-wise, as the 16-17 inches of arm side run gives the pitch decent shape, despite sub-par ride. I think there’s real potential here to split this pitch into two distinct fastballs or to transition it to a seam-shifted wake sinker. Both the changeup and gyro slider are promising, though I’d love to see him learn to leverage SSW to kill some of the ride on the changeup. It’s really close to being a tremendous pitch for him.
The arm slot and movement chart is literally begging for a sweeper, as he has no pitches that move to the glove side. A curveball might help, as well, but given the potential of the changeup vs. lefties, the sweeper would be a great weapon against righties. There’s a lot of development that needs to happen with his arsenal, but given the present command of a 96-97 mph fastball, the ceiling is quite high for this young man.
Arjun Nimmala, SS, Blue Jays
Nimmala has hit 13 home runs for Dunedin this season in only 66 games, which is rather promising for a young shortstop. Sometimes, a player’s slash line can be misleading, however with Arjun, his .216/.300/.467 actually paints a very clear picture: a lot of whiffs in- and out-of-zone, but a tremendous ability to lift the ball, with an average launch angle north of 20 degrees. The raw power is currently about 1-2 mph below average, which means that, as he matures physically, we could potentially see an elite power prospect emerge. The whiffs will likely always be a part of his game (and likely due to a swing geared for lifting the ball), however, it’s rare to find a shortstop with present ability to get the ball in the air. I don’t think he’s a top 100 prospect just yet, but he isn’t very far off.
Brady House, 3B, Nationals
I was rather surprised to see an average-power/plus-contact profile when I looked at House, as his calling card has always been his raw power. This is what we wrote about him the last few years:
2022: “Power is House’s most noteworthy tool, with some evaluators believing that he could eventually have 70-grade raw power.”
2023: “The loudest tool in House’s set is his raw power. He looks and acts the part of a large slugger, standing in at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds.”
2024: “Easy plus raw power and loud offensive tools are House’s calling card.”
So were we wrong? The data would strongly suggest that right now, in Triple-A, Brady is showing roughly average raw power, with tremendous contact, especially in the zone, which he’s maximizing by being aggressive, which comes at the expense of some chase. We know the power is in there, so if the contact gains are real, and the power returns to what he was showing earlier in his career, he could be a very exciting blend of contact and power.
Kyle Teel, C, Red Sox
It’s way too early to judge Teel’s data, but the early returns are very consistent with his reputation, with a pristine 25% chase rate, a solid 70.4% contact rate and excellent contact rates against in-zone fastballs. We’ll check back in when we’ve accumulated more data, but the early signs point to an average contact/average power hitter with good swing decisions, which is an extremely valuable profile for a catcher.
Agustin Ramirez, C, Marlins
Agustin has found another gear since being traded to the Marlins in the Jazz Chisholm trade, hitting .283/.356/.472 while his underlying metrics have improved substantially. We see a catcher with above-average raw power, above-average contact (in-zone and out-of-zone), as well as good swing decisions, aggressive with pitches in the zone and selective on pitches out of the zone, especially breaking balls. He’s looks to be a very productive hitter for a very long time.
Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees
Dominguez was recently added as the 27th man for the Yankees, which means it’s high time to check in on the Martian. Let’s take a look at him as a lefthanded batter first:
Wow. It doesn’t get much better than that. You’re looking at a player who is showing 70 grade top-end exit velocities and impeccable zone contact rates. You can quibble that he’s not aggressive enough against fastballs or that he’ll chase and miss curveballs a tad too much, but the bottom line is he’s a very young player who has had to endure immense hype his entire career and is showing a potential plus-plus contact/power profile as a LHB who might be a center fielder.
Dominguez’s data vs. lefties isn’t quite as exciting, looking more average across the board. He’s similarly passive against fastballs, perhaps waiting as long as possible before making a swing decision. Whereas he looks like a superstar vs righthanders, he looks to be more average against lefthanders, which when combined, makes him a plus contact, plus power player. I’m excited to see Dominguez finally healthy and mashing in the Bronx.
