Cooper: Dramatically Scaling Back Young Pitchers’ Workloads Has Not Kept Them Healthier

Image credit: Paul Skenes (Mike Janes/Four Seam Images)

As a prospect in 2021, Reds righthander Hunter Greene never knew how many innings or pitches he was going to get to throw.

Even though he was the hardest-throwing starter in the minor leagues, Greene was told to go out and get hitters out. Coming off Tommy John surgery in 2019, he threw five innings in his first 2021 start. He threw 99 pitches in his fourth start. He went 7.1 innings and 101 pitches in his fifth, then followed by throwing 106 pitches in each of his next two.

In modern pitching development, that seems almost reckless. Greene could reach back for 100 mph whenever he wanted, and high velocity equals high stress on elbows. But as then-Reds pitching coordinator Kyle Boddy saw it, it would be safer for Greene to let him worry about getting hitters out in the sixth and seventh innings.

“If he goes 60 or 70 pitches, he’s going to sit 100. He’s not stupid,” said Boddy, now a special advisor to Red Sox GM Craig Breslow. “And if we tell him, ‘There’s no limits on you,’ but we keep taking him out after 70 pitches every time, he’s going to realize what’s going on.

“If he can’t control the volume, the one lever he can control is the intensity. I personally think that’s worse for his arm, going max effort for shorter stints.”

There’s no guarantee that the Reds’ approach will keep Greene healthy for the long term, but it’s worked so far. He’s part of a young Cincinnati rotation that includes Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo. All were asked to throw 95-plus pitches and seven innings in the minors.

Greene is one of the examples that has me wondering if, some 20 years after the end of the pitcher-abuse era, if the pitcher-protection era is any better at actually keeping pitchers healthy.

This April brought bad news for prominent pitchers. Spencer Strider, Eury Perez and Shane Bieber joined Gerrit Cole on the injured list with elbow injuries.

At the same time, the efforts to keep pitchers healthy continue to emphasize placing artificial limits on how much pitchers work in games. In 2023, righthander Paul Skenes threw around 100 pitches and seven innings a week as LSU’s Friday starter. He generally sat at 98 mph.

In April 2024, Skenes, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft by the Pirates, sat 100 mph and touched 102 for three-inning stints for Triple-A Indianapolis. He was pulled after three perfect innings and 46 pitches in his 2024 debut. Six starts into the season, Skenes had yet to top 75 pitches in a start.

The Pirates extended this philosophy to their MLB staff. Rookie righthander Jared Jones was pulled from a start after just 59 pitches—which included 50 strikes—over five one-hit innings. He wasn’t pulled because he was tired. He was pulled in hopes the cumulative workload won’t be as taxing.

The Marlins pulled Max Meyer from their rotation to throw three-to-four innings once a week in Triple-A to try to keep him safe.

The intent is an admirable one. But we’re now more than a decade into the pitcher-protection era, and I struggle to come up with examples of carefully handled pitchers who have become paradigms of durability.

Stephen Strasburg, the No. 1 pick in the 2009 draft, was famously shut down before the 2012 playoffs in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. He had some excellent years after that and helped the Nationals win a World Series, but he was effectively done as a starter right after he turned 31.

The Orioles famously held Dylan Bundy to three innings per start in 2012, his first pro season. He didn’t allow a hit until his fifth start. He blew out his elbow the next season and was never the same afterward.

The Marlins were careful with Perez, who was never asked to pitch the seventh inning or throw 100 pitches as a pro. His elbow blew out this spring.

All of these are anecdotal examples, but looking at it another way, the pitchers who have actually proven to be durable are ones who learned early on how to carry a heavy workload. Here’s a look at MLB pitchers who, through 2023, had thrown 150 or more innings in several consecutive seasons, counting minor league work and excluding the shortened 2020 season.

15 straight seasons: Max Scherzer
11 straight seasons: Kyle Gibson
9 straight seasons: Jose Berrios
8 straight seasons: Patrick Corbin
7 straight seasons: Sandy Alcantara, Luis Castillo, Gerrit Cole, Lucas Giolito, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola

These are almost universally pitchers who were asked to work deep into games relatively early in their careers.

Scherzer threw seven innings in his second-ever minor league start. He topped 100 pitches twice in 2008 in the minors. In 2009 in the majors, he threw 100 or more pitches 21 times in 30 starts.

Gibson threw a shutout in his second minor league start. Gerrit Cole threw 185 innings as a 22-year-old. He went on the injured list this year with an elbow injury, but he averaged 180 innings a season for more than a decade. Alcantara, Giolito and Nola are all pitchers who were asked to work deep into games relatively early in their pro careers.

I don’t suggest that pitchers should go back to regular 130-pitch outings, but that practice has been eradicated from the game for well over a decade. In 2001, there were 10 games in which a pitcher threw 135 pitches. That has happened only once in the past 14 seasons and not once since 2014.

Pitcher abuse has been eradicated, but it’s hard to find evidence that dramatically scaling back pitchers’ workloads is helping. The most charitable view of current pitching development practices is that it has possibly kept the elbow injury problem from getting worse. But do we actually know that it’s beneficial?

“People go, ‘Well we’ve got to do something with these guys. We have to do this. And we’re doing no harm.’” Boddy said. “Are you sure that what we’re doing with these guys doesn’t make them more likely to be hurt?

“That’s the question I think people aren’t ready to answer. They think that limiting the players is at least, at worst, neutral. And my argument is (that) I don’t think you know that. I think there’s a possibility you’re actually making them more likely to get hurt.”