Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad Highlight Orioles’ Top-Of-The-Draft Strategy
Image credit: BALTIMORE, MD - APRIL 2: Colton Cowser #17 of the Baltimore Orioles looks on against the Kansas City Royals during the third inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 2, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Jackson Holliday was the biggest news in Baltimore this week—and for good reason.
The game’s top prospect joined No. 1 overall prospects Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman on the big league club less than two years after being drafted. Now the trio will form an exceptional core that should help the Orioles compete in the AL East for the foreseeable future.
We’ve written and talked about how the Holliday pick for the Orioles at 1-1 in the 2022 draft wasn’t the draft day no-brainer that Adley Rutschman was for the club in 2019. But other picks also highlight Baltimore and Mike Elias’s savvy—and money-saving—top-of-the-draft selections. Perhaps none more than 2021 and 2020 first rounders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad.
Cowser made the Orioles opening day roster and just last night was instrumental in the team’s 9-4 extra-inning win over the Red Sox. He went 3-for-5 with his first and second homers of his big league career and through 11 games is slashing .458/.462/.917 with seven extra-base hits.
Kjerstad is still knocking on the door with Triple-A Norfolk, but led our first Hot Sheet of the season and has exploded out of the gate with six home runs in his first 11 games and a .413/.500/.891 slash line. Were he with another organization he might have begun the season with a big league team like Cowser did.
Cowser was the fifth overall pick in the 2021 draft. Kjerstad was picked second overall in 2020. Neither picks were consensus selections on draft day and both ranked just outside of the top 10 in their respective draft classes. Several years later, both look like excellent picks and also had the benefit of creating more bonus pool flexibility for the team to use on subsequent picks.
The Kjerstad selection in 2020 is perhaps the best example. The 2020 draft was as difficult as any class for teams to evaluate given the shortened season in the middle of the covid pandemic. The Tigers took No. 1 draft prospect Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick and the Orioles went off the board for Kjerstad at No. 2. We ranked Kjerstad as the No. 13 prospect in the draft class and expected him to be selected more in the middle of the first round than at the very top.
On draft day I wrote that the Blue Jays could potentially be one of the day one winners after getting No. 2 prospect Austin Martin with the fifth overall pick. In the same piece I wrote that the Orioles threw a curveball with their Kjerstad selection, noted his power and also the fact that it felt like a potential under-slot move that could allow them to be aggressive on day two.
That was the case. Kjerstad’s $5.2 million signing bonus was nearly $2.6 million under the assigned slot value for the second overall pick ($7,789,900) and the biggest under slot deal of the 2020 draft. Below are the top 10 picks in the class:
| Pick | Team | Player | Slot Value | Signing Bonus | Over/Under |
| 1 | DET | Spencer Torkelson | $8,415,300 | $8,416,300 | $1,000 |
| 2 | BAL | Heston Kjerstad | $7,789,900 | $5,200,000 | -$2,589,900 |
| 3 | MIA | Max Meyer | $7,221,200 | $6,700,000 | -$521,200 |
| 4 | KC | Asa Lacy | $6,664,000 | $6,670,000 | $6,000 |
| 5 | TOR | Austin Martin | $6,180,700 | $7,000,825 | $820,125 |
| 6 | SEA | Emerson Hancock | $5,742,900 | $5,700,000 | -$42,900 |
| 7 | PIT | Nick Gonzales | $5,432,400 | $5,432,400 | $0 |
| 8 | SD | Robert Hassell | $5,176,900 | $4,300,000 | -$876,900 |
| 9 | COL | Zac Veen | $4,949,100 | $5,000,000 | $50,900 |
| 10 | LAA | Reid Detmers | $4,739,900 | $4,670,000 | -$69,900 |
Kjerstad’s bonus was the lowest of any player taken inside the first seven picks. That huge amount of savings was then put towards a pair of high upside prep players taken in the fourth and fifth rounds—third baseman Coby Mayo and righthander Carter Baumler.
| Round | Pick | Player | Slot Value | Signing Bonus | Over/Under |
| 1 | 2 | Heston Kjerstad | $7,789,900 | $5,200,000 | -$2,589,900 |
| 1s | 30 | Jordan Westburg | $2,365,500 | $2,365,500 | $0 |
| 2 | 39 | Hudson Haskin | $1,906,800 | $1,906,800 | $0 |
| 3 | 74 | Anthony Servideo | $844,200 | $950,000 | $105,800 |
| 4 | 103 | Coby Mayo | $565,600 | $1,750,000 | $1,184,400 |
| 5 | 133 | Carter Baumler | $422,300 | $1,500,000 | $1,077,700 |
While Baumler has dealt with injury and has yet to pitch more than 17 innings in a season since being selected, Mayo has been an unqualified success. He currently ranks as the team’s No. 3 overall prospect and the 24th-best prospect in baseball.
Kjerstad, meanwhile, is a top-50 prospect in his own right and currently looks like a much more impactful player than Martin, who was the consensus top player available on the board at the time of Baltimore’s No. 2 overall pick. Martin could still be a useful player. He’s in the big leagues with the Twins currently and entered the season as the team’s No. 9 prospect, but his lack of power might make him more of a utility type than the middle-of-the-order regular that Kjerstad projects to be.
The strategy with Cowser in the 2021 draft was the same. The 2021 class didn’t have a clear top prospect but instead a group of five players who the industry viewed as the clear top tier. A perfect situation for the Orioles, who just so happened to have the fifth overall pick in the draft.
Four of the top five players in the class went with the first four picks. Rather than taking the No. 5 ranked player (Vanderbilt righthander Kumar Rocker) or any other player ranked inside the top 10, the Orioles selected Cowser, a mid major outfielder who ranked No. 11. He was viewed as one of the safer profiles in the class but more of a middle of the first round talent.
Once again the Orioles created big bonus pool savings with the pick:
| Pick | Team | Player | Slot Value | Signing Bonus | Over/Under |
| 1 | PIT | Henry Davis | $8,415,300 | $6,500,000 | -$1,915,300 |
| 2 | TEX | Jack Leiter | $7,789,900 | $7,922,000 | $132,100 |
| 3 | DET | Jackson Jobe | $7,221,200 | $6,900,000 | -$321,200 |
| 4 | BOS | Marcelo Mayer | $6,664,000 | $6,664,000 | $0 |
| 5 | BAL | Colton Cowser | $6,180,700 | $4,900,000 | -$1,280,700 |
| 6 | ARI | Jordan Lawlar | $5,742,900 | $6,713,300 | $970,400 |
| 7 | KC | Frank Mozzicato | $5,432,400 | $3,547,500 | -$1,884,900 |
| 8 | COL | Benny Montgomery | $5,176,900 | $5,000,000 | -$176,900 |
| 9 | LAA | Sam Bachman | $4,949,100 | $3,847,500 | -$1,101,600 |
| 10 | NY | Kumar Rocker | $4,739,900 | Did not sign | – |
This time the Orioles didn’t have multiple $1 million-plus over slot deals to hand out and they didn’t exclusively use big savings on high school prospects, but they still had a pair of $500,000 or more over slot deals on day two and four over-slot deals in total:
| Round | Overall Pick | Player | Slot Value | Signing Bonus | Over/Under |
| 1 | 5 | Colton Cowser | $6,180,700 | $4,900,000 | -$1,280,700 |
| 2 | 41 | Connor Norby | $1,813,500 | $1,700,000 | -$113,500 |
| 2s | 65 | Reed Trimble | $1,025,100 | $800,000 | -$225,100 |
| 3 | 76 | John Rhodes | $818,200 | $1,375,000 | $556,800 |
| 4 | 106 | Donta Williams | $549,000 | $400,000 | -$149,000 |
| 5 | 137 | Carlos Tavera | $406,000 | $375,000 | -$31,000 |
| 6 | 167 | Collin Burns | $304,200 | $375,000 | $70,800 |
| 7 | 197 | Connor Pavolony | $237,000 | $325,000 | $88,000 |
| 8 | 227 | Creed Willems | $187,700 | $1,000,000 | $812,300 |
| 9 | 257 | Ryan Higgins | $159,700 | $159,700 | $0 |
| 10 | 287 | Billy Cook | $148,200 | $100,000 | -$48,200 |
To this point none of the players targeted for over slot deals have panned out the same way that Mayo has. None of Creed Willems, Connor Pavolony or Collin Burns currently rank inside the team’s top 30 prospects. John Rhodes showed a big improvement in exit velocity in 2023 and ranks as the team’s No. 26 prospect but doesn’t look like an impact regular quite yet.
Still, the 2021 class hammers home the way Baltimore has liked to navigate the draft. In fact, even with the team’s No. 1 overall pick of Jackson Holliday in 2022 they saved $656,900 in bonus pool money. Holliday signed for an $8.19 million bonus that was roughly the same as what Druw Jones signed for ($8.189 million) at slot value for the second pick.
While Holliday is the most prominent example of Baltimore’s rebuild and success at the top of the draft, players like Cowser and Kjerstad also serve as excellent examples of Baltimore’s willingness to go in non-obvious directions with first round picks that create bonus pool flexibility and also just look like the correct calls in terms of pure talent years later.
In 2023 the Orioles moved off their under-slot strategy by signing Enrique Bradfield to a slot deal with the 17th overall pick. Will they stick with that sort of strategy in 2024 when they pick 22nd overall—the lowest they have picked since 2016—or will they try and replicate the portfolio approach that has served them so well?
We’ll see on draft day. But if Baltimore again throws a curveball with their first overall pick it’ll be hard to question them.
