College Baseball’s Winners And Losers Of The 2022 MLB Draft

Image credit: LSU coach Jay Johnson (Photo courtesy of LSU)

Every year, the draft has significant implications not only for Major League Baseball but also for college baseball teams around the country. How teams navigated the draft both in terms of current college players and incoming recruits will shape the game for the next few seasons.

This year’s signing deadline isn’t until Aug. 1 and some of the fallout from the draft won’t be known until then. But we can make reasonable assumptions about which players are and aren’t likely to sign. The draft rules make it imperative that teams select players in the top 10 rounds that they know they can sign because otherwise they lose the pick value from their bonus pools. While that isn’t true in rounds 11-20, players that are drafted typically sign. Last year, the first 20-round draft, saw about 85% of players drafted in rounds 11-20 sign.

Specific to college players, there last year were 14 unsigned players from four-year schools. Two came in the top 40 picks (Kumar Rocker and Jud Fabian) and nine came in the final five rounds of the draft. If a college player is going to return to school, he most likely was picked from rounds 16-20.

Exceptions and surprises are still possible, but as it stands, here are some of college baseball’s winners and losers from the draft.

Winners

Auburn

The Tigers last fall signed a top-15 recruiting class and shepherded it through the draft intact. They’ll bring four players ranked on the BA 500 to campus, including three from the top 175, in righthander Hayden Murphy, outfielder Chris Stanfield and catcher Ike Irish. In addition, catcher Nate LaRue and outfielder Bobby Pierce went undrafted, clearing them to come back for 2023. Auburn did lose righthander Jonathan Brand, who was slated to transfer from Miami (Ohio), but for the most part had a great week.

Florida

The draft got off to a rocky start for the Gators as the Rays picked slugger Xavier Isaac, Florida’s top-ranked recruit but a polarizing pro prospect, in the first round. But things turned around for the Gators. Isaac and righthander Magnus Ellerts (11th round) are the two recruits Florida is likely to lose, though righthander Yoel Tejeda was also picked in the 19th round by the Pirates. It wasn’t all good news, however, as outfielder Colby Thomas, who had committed to transfer from Mercer to Florida, was drafted in the third round.

At least as importantly as holding the bulk of the recruiting class together is that Florida got good news about a few returners. Infielder Colby Halter, a draft-eligible sophomore who last week was named an all-star in the Cape Cod League, went undrafted and said he will be back in Gainesville. Catcher BT Riopelle also announced his intention to return after going unpicked. Shortstop Josh Rivera was also not selected, a more surprising development that will be a nice boost.

Louisiana State

This is not an unqualified win for the Tigers, as they had three recruits drafted in the first round and six taken in the top 10 rounds. That’s a significant loss of talent from a recruiting class that, along with Vanderbilt, entered the week in a tier separate from the rest of the sport. And LSU’s incoming transfer class did thin out a bit this week as well. Righthander Dylan Tebrake, who might have stepped into the rotation, was picked in the eighth round and infielder Jack Pineda was drafted in the 12th round. Shortstop Carter Young went in the 17th round to the Orioles, late enough that he probably still gets to Baton Rouge, but it’s not assured.

Still, assuming catcher Brady Neal and righthander Jaden Noot don’t sign after being drafted in the 17th and 19th rounds, respectively, LSU is positioned to bring the most BA 500 players to campus. In addition to Neal and Noot, six other LSU recruits ranked in the BA 500 were not drafted. That doesn’t include outfielder Paxton Kling, who formally removed himself from the draft (and thus the BA 500) but was considered a top-five round talent. For good measure, righthander Ty Floyd (No. 282) and sluggers Cade Beloso and Brayden Jobert went undrafted.

Miami

For the Hurricanes, the good news starts with All-American righthander Andrew Walters, who was ranked No. 120 on the BA 500 but was not drafted until the 18th round by the Orioles. The Orioles last year signed all of their draft picks but after the draft scouting director Brad Ciolek told reporters, “I’m probably not as optimistic as I would have been in years past” about signing all of their picks. Walters this year was a first-team All-American as a reliever after going 0-1, 1.65 with 14 saves and 62 strikeouts in 32.2 innings. He has two years of eligibility left (thanks to the pandemic-canceled 2020 season), his younger brother Brian is a part of Miami’s 2022 recruiting class as a junior college transfer and he just watched lefthander Carson Palmquist convert from closer to No. 1 starter and get drafted in the third round. All of that makes a return to Coral Gables attractive for Walters.

In addition, Miami lost just two players from a recruiting class that ranked No. 3 on signing day. Those recruits were the top two players—outfielder Elijah Green and two-way player Nazier Mule—but the Hurricanes still will get a trio of BA 500 players to campus. Miami is still sweating things a bit because of the late pick of Walters, but this has a chance to be a big win for the Hurricanes.

Stanford

The Cardinal are in much the same boat as Miami. Lefthander Quinn Mathews didn’t quite make the All-America team but without him Stanford wouldn’t have made it to Omaha. He pitched in a versatile role, starting early in the season before becoming a bullpen ace and ultimately went 9-2, 3.08 with nine saves and threw 99.1 innings. He was drafted in the 19th round by the Rays after being ranked No. 228 on the BA 500. He has two years of eligibility left and could slide into the front of the Stanford rotation if he returns.

Additionally, Stanford had just one commit drafted and that didn’t happen until Matt Scott (No. 166) was picked in the 20th round. The Cardinal should bring their recruiting class to campus intact, led by catcher Malcolm Moore (No. 66), who is the second-highest ranked player to go undrafted. The Cardinal will bring a top-25 recruiting class to campus for the third time in four years and getting Mathews back to go with that would be the cherry on top.

Texas A&M

The Aggies made it through the draft in good shape. The three players they had picked were all seniors who were expected to go and none of their recruits from a class that ranked No. 20 on signing day were drafted. That means they get in players like outfielder Jace LaViolette and lefthander Justin Lamkin and retain slugger Austin Bost, key reliever Will Johnston and third baseman Trevor Werner.

Losers

Florida International

Only LSU, Vanderbilt and Alabama had more recruits drafted than FIU, which had four. None of the commits were taken before the 14th round, so the Panthers still have a chance to hang on to them, but their recruiting class seems to have been hit hard. Coaching changes are rarely easy on draft classes, but this one looks to be particularly tough and new FIU coach Rich Witten will have some holes to fill.

North Carolina

It was a tough week for the Tar Heels. While not unexpected, top hitters Danny Serretti and Angel Zarate were drafted. They also saw No. 1 starter Brandon Schaeffer get picked as well as their 1-2 bullpen punch of Davis Palermo and Shawn Rapp. UNC also lost catcher Brooks Brannon, its top recruit, and righthander Matthew Keating, who was slated to transfer from Southern California, on back-to-back picks in the ninth round.

The good news for UNC is that draft-eligible sophomores Tomas Frick and Mac Horvath went unpicked, as did slugger Alberto Osuna. With that trio and All-American Vance Honeycutt back, UNC has a strong offensive core to build around.

Oklahoma

The Sooners had a lot to celebrate in 2022, as they won the Big 12 Tournament and finished as runners-up in Omaha. But they will now seemingly completely turn their roster over after they had 11 players drafted, the most in the nation. Oklahoma also saw two recruits drafted, as well as Kyle Nevin, who was slated to transfer from Baylor.

The losses from the 2022 roster were all ultimately expected as Oklahoma had an older team. But with the exception of outfielder Kendall Pettis, seemingly everyone who might have been drafted was. Leading the way was righthander Cade Horton, who pitched his way into the top 10 picks during the postseason. As much as the Sooners needed him to do that to reach the College World Series finals, it does also have to sting that in doing so, Horton pitched his way out of Norman after just one healthy season.

Vanderbilt

This is not an unqualified loss. The Commodores did see several players from their 2022 roster go undrafted and will benefit from getting them back next season. Catcher Jack Bulger’s return feels especially important and righthanders Nick Maldonado, Grayson Moore and Thomas Schultz will fortify the bullpen.

But the Commodores signed the No. 1 recruiting class last fall, and it was hammered this week. Some of that was certainly to be expected. Outfielder Druw Jones was the No. 1 player on the BA 500 and hadn’t been expected to make it to school. But it turned out Vanderbilt had five first-rounders in this year’s recruiting class. In all, seven Commodores recruits were drafted, and none are expected to make it to Nashville.

The good news, in addition to how the draft played out for players already at Vanderbilt, is that shortstop R.J. Austin and righthander Andrew Dutkanych opted out of the draft process. They were both seen as top-five round talents and, along with shortstop Chris Maldonado (Nick’s younger brother) and outfielder Devan Kodali, give the incoming class a strong core.

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