College Baseball What To Watch For: Week 4

Image credit: Nick Kurtz (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)

Every college baseball fan had last weekend circled on their calendar, and it more than lived up to the billing. Between loaded in-season tournament fields and a handful of other marquee series, there was plenty of action all across the country. Both No. 2 LSU and No. 9 Vanderbilt enjoyed perfect weekends in the Lone Star State, while no. 10 Clemson won a key rivalry series over No. 13 South Carolina. No. 5 TCU, No. 19 UC Irvine and No. 24 Florida State remained with the Horned Frogs notching two more thrilling, come-from-behind victories. Flipping the page to this weekend, the slate as a whole is a bit lighter but the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 all beginning conference play provide a handful of key series.

Additionally, here are some helpful links to aid your college baseball consumption this weekend…

No. 12 Duke At No. 1 Wake Forest

All eyes this weekend will be on Winston-Salem as No. 12 Duke clashes with top-ranked Wake Forest. The Blue Devils this season are 11-1 with their only blemish being a one-run loss to Akron. They are as well-rounded a team in the country to this point, and they are the only team that ranks in the top-five in both team batting average (.359) and team ERA (2.29). Their 35 home runs also lead the country. It starts with lefthander Jonathan Santucci (3-0, 0.00 ERA), who tomorrow night goes toe-to-toe with fellow lefthander Josh Hartle (3-0, 2.04 ERA). With numerous scouting directors and crosscheckers in attendance tomorrow night, both Santucci and Hartle have a golden opportunity to boost their respective draft stocks.

Santucci last week notched 14 strikeouts across six shutout innings against Akron, but Wake’s lineup is one of the best he will see all season. He’s relied heavily on his fastball and slider to this point, but I am curious to see if he mixes in his changeup—a pitch I believe to be at least an above-average offering—to a righthanded-heavy Demon Deacon lineup.

Hartle has his work cut out for him, and arguably no team in the country has been more productive this season than the Blue Devils. Their offense is led by a pair of Ivy League transfers in Ben Miller (.500/.556/1.063) and Logan Bravo (.426/.462/.617) who came to Duke by way of Pennsylvania and Harvard, respectively. Coach Pollard and his staff recently have seemed to hit big on at least one Ivy League transfer, and this year so far has been more of the season. Junior outfielder Devin Obee (.476/.531/.905) is in the midst of a breakout season, while prized freshman Kyle Johnson has starred on both sides of the baseball.

Outside of Santucci on the mound, Duke has also gotten sizable contributions from Andrew Healy (1-0, 3.00 ERA), Brown transfer Charlie Beielnson (0-0, 0.00 ERA)—who has been nearly unhittable with 17 strikeouts to zero walks in his 10 innings—and Gabriel Nard (0-0, 1.17 ERA). There is no doubt that Duke has been one of the more impressive teams to this point, but this weekend will serve as a barometer for how they stack up against the nation’s best.

Wake Forest is off to an excellent start as well and, like Duke, is also 11-1. However, it has done so in far less convincing fashion and has almost played with its food to an extent. Wake’s only loss came to UNC-Greensboro by one run, but it has played a number of close games—much closer than one would expect—against lesser opponents. Neither Nick Kurtz (.262/.475/.452) nor Seaver King (.255/.316/.510) have really gotten going to this point, but it seems like only a matter of time before the dangerous duo hits its stride. Adam Tellier (.413/.550/.870), Jack Winnay (.368/.444/.895) and Tate Ballestero (.344/.523/.563) have all stepped up early on to lead the offense. Both King and Kurtz have been pitched around to this point, but expect them to see more competitive pitches given the large step up in competition.

Outside of Hartle, righthanders Chase Burns (2-0, 2.60 ERA) and Michael Massey (3-0, 0.71 ERA) have both done well in their three starts. Burns features a hellacious fastball-slider combination, whereas Massey features a plus riding fastball to go along with a pair of effective breaking balls. All three to this point have been as advertised and I feel confident that they will turn in a quality 17-21 innings this weekend. However, I am concerned as to where those last 6-10 or so innings will come from. Sidewinder William Ray (0-1, 0.84 ERA) has been great to this point, but outside of him it has been inconsistent. Closer David Falco Jr. (0-0, 7.36 ERA) has struggled at times, and with a number of new faces it seems like the coaching staff is still trying to figure out where everyone fits best. Each team heads into the series with question marks—some of which are bigger than others—but a lot figure to be answered by Sunday night.

How To Stream

The series begins tomorrow night at 6:00 EST, and all games can be streamed on ACC Network Extra.

No. 24 Texas At No. 14 Texas Tech

In addition to this being a fantastic rivalry between two ranked teams, this could also be the last time these two meet for a weekend series for a while given the fact that Texas at the end of the spring season will be joining the SEC. Texas Tech to this point has amassed a 10-2 record and has won its last seven games. Its offense has been one of the most prolific units in college baseball, and it currently leads the country with 163 runs and its .364 team average is third overall. There is no denying that the Red Raiders’ schedule has been light to this point, but it is still incredibly impressive what numbers their offense has put up.

Leading the charge is sophomore outfielder Damian Bravo, who is in the midst of a breakout campaign after logging just 30 at-bats as a true freshman. On top of leading the team with a cartoonish .562 average, Bravo’s 27 hits and 12 doubles are both tops at the Division-I level. Athletic freshman TJ Pompey (.392/.475/.627) has emerged as an immediate contributor, Gonzaga transfer Cade McGee (.333/.593/.485) has made his presence felt both in the box and on the dirt and seemingly every lineup regular has gotten off to a hot start. There are little holes offensively for Tech, but this weekend will be its toughest series to date.

I am most curious to see how the Red Raiders’ pitching, particularly their starters, fare against a deep Texas lineup. Kyle Robinson has been as advertised (2-1, 3.14 ERA), but it has been a struggle to figure out who fits best behind him. Highly touted freshman Mac Heuer (1-0, 2.61 ERA) allowed only one earned run across five innings against Gardner-Webb last Saturday in his first-career start, and he seems destined to remain in that role. Who gets the ball on Sunday is the biggest question mark and there are a handful of arms who could slot in there.

Tech has two weapons in its bullpen in Ryan Free (2-0, 1.08 ERA) and Josh Sanders (1-0, 2.35 ERA), but outside of those two it has struggled at times. Those struggles have largely been masked due to how absurd the offense has been, but it will be interesting to see how the staff as a whole holds up if it finds itself in a close game situation.

Texas this season got off to a great 7-1 start, but has been reeling as of late and has lost its last four games. Last Friday it remained competitive with No. 2 LSU, but righthander Luke Holman silenced its offense. That wasn’t at all a disappointing loss, but losing to Texas State and No. 9 Vanderbilt on consecutive days was a brutal way to end the weekend. Each loss stung for different reasons. The Longhorns on Saturday erased a 6-0 deficit and took a 10-9 lead into the ninth inning before an Aaron Lugo home run propelled Texas State to a huge win, and on Sunday their bullpen blew an 11-3 lead to Vanderbilt. Most recently, rival Texas A&M notched a sound 9-2 win.

It is easy right now to be down on the Longhorns, and I would understand—to an extent—if someone was, but I don’t think it’s time to have a “the sky is falling” mentality just yet. Let’s start with the good: they have a bonafide Friday night ace in LeBarron Johnson Jr. (1-1, 2.25 ERA) who even though he didn’t have his best stuff against LSU, gives Texas a chance to win every time he toes the rubber. The lineup is also off to a strong, productive start and is hitting .312 as a team while averaging over four extra-base hits per game.

Jared Thomas (.457/.569/.652) and Peyton Powell (.440/.482/.820) have both been outstanding, but I have been most impressed by the resurgence of shortstop Jalin Flores. Flores has always been known for his defensive acumen, but so far he is enjoying a breakout season at the plate to the tune of a .347/.411/.755 slash line with a team-leading five home runs. Freshman Will Gasparino (.303/.333/.424) has assimilated nicely so far to the college game, while outfielders Max Belyeu (.267/.450/.700) and Porter Brown (.196/.327/.435) have both come on as of late. Between Dan Law Field being notoriously hitter-friendly and the number of weapons Texas has in its lineup, I expect the Longhorns to be able to put up healthy run totals all weekend.

Texas’ pitching staff has struggled mightily in the last week. Excluding Johnson Jr. and Andre Duplantier II, it has had difficulty throwing strikes and getting outs in general. Righthander Cody Howard (2-0, 3.29 ERA) will look to bounce back after turning in a pair of quality starts to start the season, and Charlie Hurley (1-0, 5.11 ERA)—who has given up six earned runs in his last 2.2 innings—will look to do the same. Even if the rotation is able to return to form, the bullpen will really need to step up behind it.

The Longhorns this weekend have a golden opportunity to get their train back on the tracks. Not only would it be a key ranked series win on the road, but it would also give them a lot of momentum going into a very favorable stretch of their schedule. I expect this series to largely be a shootout, and whoever is able to consistently stack big innings and come through with more clutch hits figures to come away with a series victory.

How To Stream

All three games this weekend will be streamed via ESPN+.

UCLA At California

After Oregon State, the Pac-12 is, simply put, a jumbled mess. At least six other teams realistically could finish in second place, and two of them just so happen to play each other this weekend as the Bruins travel north to visit the Golden Bears. UCLA’s season got off to a great start as it swept Gonzaga in convincing fashion to thrust itself into the top 25. However, the following weekend it got swept by No. 5 TCU and comes into this weekend on a three-game losing streak.

The Bruins pitching staff has been solid, but producing runs has been an issue. So far, they are hitting just .253 as a team and have hit just seven home runs. Cody Schrier missed a lot of time last season due to injury, but so far the junior shortstop and potential top-three round pick has been the team’s best hitter by a wide margin. Schrier is currently hitting .364/.451/.568 and his five extra-base hits are tied for the team lead. Duce Gourson has been solid as well and is hitting .293/.431/.561 with a team-leading nine RBIs, but the pieces around Schrier and Gourson have struggled to step up.

Blue chip freshman Roch Cholowsky has shown flashes on the dirt as a plus defender and has also held his own at the plate. He’s hitting a hair over .260, but he has produced at a respectable clip for a freshman in the Pac-12. Those three are all valuable pieces, but I wonder if the lineup as a whole will be able to produce enough runs this weekend to come away with a series win.

For as much as the offense has struggled to get into a rhythm, the pitching staff has been a bright spot. The Bruins’ rotation of Luke Jewett (0-1, 4.67 ERA), Finn McIlroy (1-1, 2.25 ERA) and Michael Barnett (1-1, 5.40 ERA) will likely be enough to keep them in each game this weekend. Their bullpen has also thrown the ball well, but especially freshman righthander Luke Rodriguez (0-1, 1.64 ERA), sophomore Cody Delvecchio (1-1, 0.00 ERA) and graduate transfer closer Rashad Ruff (1-0, 0.00 ERA). All of these arms attack the zone, throw quality strikes and avoid hard contact. There is a non-zero chance that UCLA’s pitching staff could hold California to 15-18 runs across three games and still end up losing the series.

California this season has been one of the biggest surprises in the Pac-12. It is 8-3 with notable wins over Kansas State and Stanford, as well as a series win over Connecticut. The Golden Bears are led by two likely day one draft picks in catcher Caleb Lomavita (.391/.453/.739) and centerfielder Rodney Green Jr. (.268/.412/.610). Lomavita is an excellent athlete behind the dish with an above-average arm, while at the plate he has plus power with an above-average pure hit tool. He has a legitimate chance to be the first catcher off the board this July. Green Jr. is a toolshed who is a plus runner and defender with borderline plus power—especially to the pull side—at the plate. The key for Green Jr. to maximize his immense upside is to clean up his pitch recognition skills and overall approach.

Freshman shortstop PJ Moutzouridis (.438/.571/.688) is the team’s leading hitter, can really pick it at shortstop and looks the part of a future top-two round draft pick. The pitching staff is on the younger side and has struggled at times, but the Golden Bears have a handful of arms they feel comfortable sending to the mound. Freshmen Trey Newmann (0-1, 5.79 ERA) and Quinn Larson (1-0, 0.00 ERA), especially Larson, have both shown flashes and proven their worth as rotation arms. They will also get a huge boost in the next few weeks as junior lefthander Ian May will again assume the Friday starter role after recovering from Tommy John Surgery. May is a low-slot lefty with advanced pitchability, and last year he threw 16-straight scoreless innings before going down with a UCL injury.

With all of that being said, the one area to pay close attention to is Cal’s bullpen. It has a track record of inconsistency, and it is the weak spot of this year’s team. Even with how much UCLA has struggled to score runs, the Bruins could get to the Cal bullpen to steal a game or even the series. This profiles to be a hard-fought, well-played series that I project will come down to a decisive game three on Sunday. I give a slight edge to Cal and think they will hit enough to come away with a key series win.

How To Stream

All games this weekend can be streamed on Cal’s website. To find each game, scroll down to where UCLA is listed on the schedule and click the small television icon in the bottom right corner.

Southern Mississippi At Louisiana Tech

This matchup might fly under the radar when compared to the other action around the country, but I am fired up for this one. Ultra-competitive and scrappy Southern Mississippi travels to Ruston, La. to take on 12-1 Louisiana Tech in what is sure to be a great series. While the Golden Eagles most recently lost 5-4 to in-state rival Mississippi State, they last weekend picked up a quality series win over Indiana State. They haven’t swung the bat particularly well as a team, but they consistently will piece together quality at-bats and have a knack for coming through with a timely hit.

The rotation is what will keep them in most, if not all of their games this spring. It is headlined by Niko Mazza (2-0, 1.96 ERA), a live-armed righthander who has taken a massive step forward in the command and control departments. Veteran Billy Oldham (2-0, 3.00 ERA) has turned in a trio of quality starts, while in the bullpen flamethrower JB Middleton (0-0, 0.00 ERA) is without a doubt the best reliever in the Sun Belt.

Before yesterday’s loss to Xavier, Louisiana Tech had started the season 12-0. The experienced trio of Michael Ballard (.426/.518/.511), Ethan Bates (.370/.453/.630) and Dalton Davis (.327/.438/.558) have been the team’s biggest run producers so far, but the pitching has been next level. The Bulldogs’ team ERA of 2.48 is fifth in the country and virtually every arm has logged at least one quality appearance. Reliever Sam Bordersen has been nearly unhittable, and across 10 scoreless innings he has struck out 19 and allowed only one hit. Luke Nichols (2-0, 2.25 ERA) has turned in a quality start in each of his three outings, while Ryan Harland (0-0, 1.23 ERA), Ethan Bates (0-0, 1.42 ERA) and Grant Hubka (2-0, 2.70 ERA) are a formidable trio in the bullpen.

Runs this weekend will be hard to come by for either team, but I give the advantage to Louisiana Tech given that they will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd and have the depth advantage on both sides of the baseball—especially on offense.