College Baseball Takeaways From Day 1 Of The 2024 MLB Draft

Image credit: Tennessee coach Tony Vitello (Photo by Eddie Kelly/ProLook Photos)

The draft began with a bit of history Sunday night when the first eight players selected were all from the college baseball ranks. It was just the start of a big night for college players, as 44 of the 74 players selected in the first two rounds came out of four-year schools.

From a college baseball perspective, here are the top storylines that stood out from an exciting Sunday evening of draft action.

Don’t Overreact To Sunday’s Moment For College Baseball

For the first time in the history of the draft (which dates back to 1965), the first eight picks were college products. Not until the Pirates drafted Konnor Griffin, who was Baseball America’s High School Player of the Year, at No. 9 did that streak get broken.

That run is impressive, and it included players from a wide array of schools. Travis Bazzana went first overall, giving Oregon State the No. 1 pick in two of the last six drafts. Wake Forest and West Virginia, relative newcomers to the national scene, both had players set new marks for the highest-drafted in program history, as Chase Burns went second overall and JJ Wetherholt went seventh. Tennessee, the national champion, was represented by Christian Moore, who went eighth overall.

For any fan of college baseball, it was a fun way to start the night. But I would caution against anyone who wants to read too deeply into it and make broad generalizations about the college game.

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Yes, college baseball is in a great place. Yes, there has been a lot of investment in player development in and not just at schools that have been doing it for a long time. Yes, anyone in or around college baseball will be quick to tell you that the talent level of the sport is as high as it’s ever been. And yes, you can look to the quick success of players like Paul Skenes and Wyatt Langford in pro ball as proof that the best college players can make near-immediate impacts in the major leagues.

All of that can be true. But that’s not why the top eight and 13 of the top 15 picks in this year’s draft were college players. Or at least not the only reason.

Let’s not forget that just two years ago, four of the top five players drafted were prep players. Last year it was four of the top 10.

The relative talent of the high school and college classes ebb and flow annually. This year, by all accounts, the prep talent was down at the top of the draft. At the same time, the top of the college class was strong. Those two forces, combined with the improved player development in college baseball, helped create the early run on college players.

The overall draft trends are changing. Go back far enough in history, and the top of the draft was all prep players. Go back 10-15 years and the maxim was MLB teams could get solid big leaguers from college baseball, but the stars were more likely to come from the prep ranks.

That’s no longer true. At Tuesday’s All-Star Game, there will be 10 starters who came through the American player development pipeline. Seven of them are products of four-year colleges (the AL has yet to name a starting pitcher, so those numbers might shift slightly on Monday). But it’s also too early to say that what happened Sunday night is the new normal. It’s reasonable to expect next year’s draft to be more evenly split at the top, possibly with a prep player (Ethan Holiday) going No. 1 overall.

Sunday was a great moment for college baseball. But it wasn’t necessarily a sea change.

Wondering What Could’ve Been For Wake Forest

Wake Forest was central to the heavy college flavor in the top half of the first round. The Demon Deacons had three players drafted in the top 10 picks, joining 2004 Rice as the only teams in draft history to have a trio of top-10 picks.

Righthander Chase Burns went second overall to the Reds. The A’s selected first baseman Nick Kurtz with the fourth overall pick and Seaver King went 10th overall to the Nationals to complete the trifecta.

While that is a significant moment for the Demon Deacons, it does reinforce that this season ended disappointingly for them. Wake always had the potential for this kind of night, and that’s why it was the top-ranked team in the Preseason Top 25. But Wake had a rocky season that ended with an 0-2 showing in the Greenville Regional.

While it’s easy to use Sunday night as a cudgel against Wake and to again wonder what went wrong this season, the Deacs’ draft success should not be regarded as a hollow victory. Prior to Sunday night, Wake had just two top-10 picks in program history: Kyle Sleeth, who went third overall in 2003, and Rhett Lowder, who went seventh overall last year. Now, Wake is one of just two programs ever to produce three top-10 picks in one year.

Wake’s recruiting has come a long way under coach Tom Walter and recruiting coordinator Bill Cilento, who have together led the program for the last 15 years. Sunday night was the latest example of the program’s success in recruiting and development. Wake’s three draft picks all showed a different side to its success and its ability to work with different kinds of players.

Kurtz was a three-year player for the Deacs. He was not a prominent prep player, but came to campus with big offensive upside, which he tapped into during his career. King was a transfer from Wingate, a Division II school. He was well-known after last season and spent the summer with Team USA, but the Deacs were able to help him make the adjustment to Division I and become a top-10 pick. Burns has been famous since high school, and landing him when he left Tennessee after last season was a significant recruiting coup. But he also got better in Winston-Salem, showing his ability as a starter and leading the nation in strikeouts (191).

Ultimately, is it a little weird that Wake went 15-15 in the ACC this season and 0-2 in a regional with a trio of top-10 picks? Yes. But it’s not unprecedented. In 2004 Rice got bounced in a home regional with its vaunted trio of Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann and Wade Townsend.

SEC, ACC Lead The Way

On a day that was dominated by college players, the SEC edged the ACC, 7-6, in first-round picks. The Big 12 (3) and Pac-12 (2) both produced multiple first-rounders, as well, while the American and Conference USA had one each.

The SEC expanded its lead later in the night, finishing with 19 players selected. The ACC had nine, with the Big 12 (5) and Pac-12 (4) following.

Those numbers won’t be a surprise to any college baseball fan. They’re just another sign of the concentration of talent in the major conferences and programs. They’re also a pretty good indication of why the NCAA Tournament worked out the way it did, with the College World Series being an ACC-SEC showdown.

Rocky Top Rolls On

Did any program have a better day than Tennessee? The Volunteers led all schools with four players drafted Sunday, coach Tony Vitello spent four hours front and center on MLB Network’s set and not a single one of their recruits was drafted.

Not only did Tennessee have four players drafted, but it was the top four hitters in its lineup. Second baseman Christian Moore went eighth overall to the Angels, first baseman Blake Burke went in the supplemental first round to the Brewers, third baseman Billy Amick went in the second round to the Twins and left fielder Dylan Dreiling went in the second round to the Rangers. Moore, Burke and Dreiling all came to Tennessee as prep products with significant upsides, and all three of them got a lot better in Knoxville. Amick arrived last summer via the transfer portal from Clemson, highlighting Tennessee’s ability to play in that market as well as traditional recruiting.

Perhaps the one fly in the ointment is that righthander Drew Beam remains on the board as Day 2 begins, but all in all, it was another big day for the national champions. Now, the focus turns to holding on to its recruiting class, which ranked No. 2 on Signing Day.

LSU’s Recruiting Class Exits Sunday In Great Shape

Speaking of recruits, four programs—LSU, Texas, Virginia and Wake—tied for the most recruits drafted Sunday with three apiece. LSU, Texas and Virginia signed top-five classes in November, making their losses in the first two rounds relatively expected. While it’s never comfortable for fans to see their commits drafted, that is largely the price of signing an elite class.

Wake, however, had the No. 23 class on Signing Day. It likely would have moved up if I had re-ranked at the end of the prep season, but to see its top three recruits selected on Sunday still had to sting.

Despite having three commits drafted, Sunday goes down as a win for LSU’s recruiting class. William Schmidt, the top-ranked prep righthander in the class, announced he would not sign and instead uphold his commitment to LSU. That decision came too late for him to formally withdraw from the draft, so he still could be selected, but he should be considered locked in with the Tigers. Late Sunday night, catcher Cade Arrambide, who ranked No. 125 in the draft class and was named the Texas Gatorade Player of the Year, also reaffirmed his commitment to LSU. With Arrambide, Schmidt and outfielder Derek Curiel (who did formally withdraw) anchoring the class, LSU has a chance to end up with the top-ranked class.

Meanwhile, Florida State and Tennessee, which also signed top-five classes in November, did not have a single recruit drafted Sunday. It’s too early to celebrate yet in Tallahassee or Knoxville, but that was a very encouraging start for the Seminoles and Volunteers.