Coby Mayo, James Wood Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (May 6th)
Image credit: Nationals top prospect James Wood (Photo by Tom DiPace)
Every Monday morning we’ll highlight 10 players who stood out to us based on their underlying Statcast metrics. These are not full scouting reports, but can often serve as good early indicators of prospects who might be ready to break out, or are demonstrating MLB-ready skills.
Last Week we highlighted Jonah Tong, Christian Scott and Jordan Beck, who were all promoted shortly after. This week, we’ll dive a little bit deeper into a few players that we think are on the cusp of a major league callup (and one who has just been called up), highlight some much lesser known names that are showing some interesting traits, before finishing the list with another potential superstar, saving perhaps the best, for last.
You can access the data below via Baseball Savant.
Related prospect rankings
10 Statcast Standouts
James Wood, OF, Nationals
Baseball Savant has a neat exit velocity leaderboard, which you can peruse here. There are four metrics they make available: Max exit velocity, average exit velocity , EV Best 50 (which is the average of the top 50% of batted balls for that batter; this will be the EV50 column header), and hard hit % which is the percentage of batted balls hit over 95 mph.
With the caveat that Wood is producing his exit velos against inferior pitching, his max exit velocity of 115.3 mph would rank ninth in baseball, just behind Juan Soto, his 94.4 mph average exit velocity would tie Shohei Ohtani for seventh in baseball, sandwiched between Bobby Witt Jr. and Matt Olson. Wood’s EV Best 50 of 104.7 MPH would tie Elly De La Cruz for 11th, and his hard hit% of 54.2% would be 16th in baseball, just ahead of Teoscar Hernández.
My preferred metric is 90th percentile exit velocity, which would place Wood in the top 10 (minimum 50 balls in play). That’s a lot of words and numbers to tell you that James Wood hits the ball really, really hard. The power will play down because he can’t lift the ball consistently, and he’ll always have some issues with swing and miss, but his raw power numbers are a true 80 on the 20-80 scale if they fully translate to the majors.
Here’s a picture of James Wood sitting atop the Triple-A 90th percentile exit velocity leaderboard with a very manageable swinging strike rate:
Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles
I’ve written about Mayo multiple times in this series. Given his week-in, week-out performances, I could probably write about him every week. In case he gets called up before too long, I took some time to prepare a couple of new visuals, so we can dive a little deeper into what makes Mayo such a fantastic player.
If you glance at the chart above you’ll see he sits just above a 108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity (70-grade raw power), but more importantly he averages an ideal launch angle of around 15 degrees. His approach makes him special:
Coby Mayo’s Damage / Approach Chart
The size of the box indicates how often Mayo is swinging at pitches in that part of the zone, with smaller boxes indicating a lower swing%. Green boxes are areas where he doesn’t do a lot of damage, and red boxes are areas where he mashes. While he perhaps swings a little too much at pitches around the zone, he very rarely swings at waste pitches.
The other thing that pops out immediately is his ability to crush pitches on the inner third, but also his ability to hit home runs on pitches all over the zone. We also see how important it is for Mayo to stay within the zone. As he matures I expect the boxes around the strike zone to shrink as he hones his approach.
Coby Mayo’s Contact / Approach Chart
Again we see the importance for Mayo to stay within the zone, and he might have a hole in his swing up and away, but if you look at his damage chart above, that’s a risky proposition for a pitcher to attack as he crushed pitches at the top third of the zone. All well and good if you can dot up and away, but good luck if you miss over the middle of the plate, especially the inner third.
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Guardians
Manzardo is joining the Guardians, so this is a perfect time to use him as a contrast to Mayo.
Kyle Manzardo’s Damage/Approach:
We see that Manzardo does most of his damage down and in. He’s extremely disciplined, rarely offering at pitches off the plate where he can’t do damage. However, his nitro-zone isn’t as large as Mayo’s, so pitchers may be able to exploit him by pitching to the top third of the zone, or staying on the outer third.
Kyle Manzardo’s Contact/Approach:
Based on this chart and the one above, I expect pitchers will be attacking him on the outer third of the plate, where he might be the most vulnerable. We’ll see how Manzardo adjusts as he finally gets his chance.
Josh Ekness, RHP, Marlins
The Marlins drafted Ekness No. 353 overall (12th round) in 2023. He fits into my sweet spot of a pitcher that is well below the radar who deserves a little bit more attention. These players embody the notion that the gap between players is often much smaller than we think. Tiny differences in velocity, movement and release points can be the difference between a major league arm, and one that toils in the minors for a decade.
Ekness is mostly a two-pitch pitcher, with a fastball that has decent ride given the low slot, with very good velocity at 97.3 mph and topping out at 100. The current shape won’t be dominant at the major league level, but it’s also not far off from being a plus-plus pitch. If Ekness can manage to add two inches of ride (not easy) this goes from an average to plus pitch, to being a pitch that profiles well at the back of an MLB bullpen. Tiny differences can lead to gigantic performance results.
Ekness also throws a gyro slider at 85 mph, which has a lot of potential, especially if he can add a couple of ticks to it, which given the fastball velo, should be doable. He does release it from a slightly different release point than his fastball, which may be a problem as he moves up the ladder. Ekness is dominating as a closer right now, and it appears the Marlins will be developing him as a high-leverage arm. He has the raw ingredients to excel in that role and may move quickly.
Anyer Laureano, RHP, Reds
Laureano is a little bit older than most international players competing in Low-A. I’d be lying to you if I’d try to convince you that he has more than an outside shot at making the major leagues. But he’s the type of player I want to examine when I sit down to write this piece. Laureano has a very over-the-top release, which will make his IVB numbers play down, but even at his release point it’s still well above-average:
It’s a high-ride, high-velo fastball that he routinely hits 22 inches of IVB, and he gets a decent amount of whiffs when he can locate it:
But it’s quite clear that he has a lot of trouble locating his fastball to lefties (either right over the heart of the plate) or scattershot. He’s a little more in the zone against righties, but he’ll need to learn how to attack the top of the zone, and this chart explains his nine walks in 14.1 innings so far this season.
Probably due to his fastball command issues, Laureano doesn’t throw his cutter/slider very often, though it looks like the classic pair for his high-vert fastball. He also throws a sinker, but I’d scrap that and focus on the two-pitch mix. He also only gets 5.8 feet of extension on his pitch, which may somewhat limit his effectiveness. This is Laureano’s first season stateside. While he’s a long way from making the major leagues, he also has present MLB-quality pure stuff, which will likely only tick up as he matures and gets access to potentially better training and development.
Kyle Nicolas, RHP, Pirates
Nicolas ranked No. 13 in our preseason Pirates rankings on the strength of his high-octane stuff that profiles well in a high-leverage bullpen role. While he’s given up nine walks in the early going this year, he’s showing flashes of targeting his fastball to the upper third of the zone:
The command looks spotty to lefties, but he’s at least able to zone the pitch or attack just above the zone most of the time.
Nicolas has made a couple of tweaks from 2023 to 2024 that are subtle, yet important. He’s raised his release point about 2-3 inches, with a corresponding increase of IVB that is about neutral, while adding a half a tick to the fastball. While the fastball quality is probably net-neutral, he also throws a bullet slider at 88.5 mph which he’s added an inch of drop to, and now has 16 inches of vertical separation from the fastball, up about two inches from last season, and has led to more whiffs on the pitch. A slider at 88.5 mph is deadly when paired with a high-vert fastball, and he could stand to up his usage of the pitch substantially, if only he could command it a little better:
Nicolas will need some time to harness that slider, but when he does, he goes from a fringe relief arm to a potential relief ace.
TJayy Walton, OF, Phillies
Walton was the No. 13 Phillies prospect heading into the season. Baseball America wrote that “if the expected power begins to show up, he’ll be on a path toward a classic corner-outfield masher”. So far, the power has indeed showed up.
Walton has a 106.7 mph 90th percentile exit velocity (3-4 MPH above the MLB average), as well as a 113.4 mph max (also 3-4 mph above the MLB average), though it is coming with a concerning 31.4% whiff rate in the early going. However, he is young for the level, has present plus to plus-plus raw power, and is already lifting the ball, with an average 13.6 degrees launch angle. These are the building blocks for a potential corner-outfield power bat.
Niko Kavadas, 1B, Red Sox
Kavadas has made some important strides since 2023, cutting his whiff rate from a terrible 37.4% to a still-bad-but-not-atrocious 30.5% in the early going this year. What he does exceptionally well is hit the ball hard, with at least a 15-degree launch angle:
All this adds up to a .440 OBP driven by an extremely patient approach, and a .618 slugging percentage driven by the batted ball profile. He might get the call to Fenway soon.
Luis Matos, OF, Giants
Matos is currently hitting .212/.316/.343 at Triple-A this season, which is very poor by his standards. However, under the surface, he continues to hit the ball hard (105.2 90th percentile exit velocity), and has both increased his exit velocities while reducing his whiffs while raising his launch angles by about five degrees. These are all meaningful, positive, changes under the hood and point to a breakout happening. Matos profiles as a player that should get to a lot of his raw power, and hit for a high batting average. Don’t jump ship on Matos.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays
We could have led with Caminero, but decided to leave him for those that have read all the way down. Caminero doesn’t have the most disciplined profile, and perhaps has a hole in his swing at the top of the zone, but he absolutely demolishes baseballs, pretty much anywhere:
We see a home run on a pitch down and in, as well as a pitch up and away. This is the type of precocious power-hitting that is so hard to game plan for, as he’s capable of doing damage on almost any pitch. While it may be a viable approach to attack him at the top of the zone, you better make sure you miss up, since middle-middle is going to get crushed. On the off chance that Caminero is still in Triple-A next week, we’ll do a deeper dive, breaking down his approach against different pitch types.
