Cleveland Indians Top 10 Prospects Chat

Moderator: BA’s Teddy Cahill will be here at 2 p.m. Eastern to chat about the Indians’ top prospects.

Teddy Cahill: Welcome to the Baseball America Indians Top 10 prospects list chat. I know winter has hit the North Coast hard the past couple days, so maybe talking about baseball will help you forget about the snow and cold.

Greg T. (Lake Central): I'm sure a lot of us are surprised Zimmer beat out Frazier for the #1 spot. Frazier is TWO YEARS younger and has put up better overall numbers at similar levels. What gives Zimmer the edge?
Teddy Cahill: Let’s start at the top. I don’t know that it really should have been much of a surprise. Zimmer topped our midseason top 10, which was the first Indians prospects list Francisco Lindor wasn’t eligible for since he signed. Yes, Clint Frazier is younger and has better power. But what puts Zimmer ahead of him is his all-around game. He’s a true five-tool player and is more likely to stay in center field. He also is slightly closer to the big leagues having already reached Double-A. Ultimately, they’re two very good players. Zimmer is just a tick ahead at this point.

Craig (Ohio): Why Aiken ahead of Sheffield & Bradley? With the uncertain health of Aiken and Success by the other two at Lake County the ranking surprised me.
Teddy Cahill: Much like the previous question, just looking at Nos. 3-5 on the list. There is some uncertainty about Aiken’s health after the ordeal following the 2014 draft and his subsequent Tommy John surgery. But his upside is massive. He was the No. 1 pick in that draft for a reason. Obviously he’s going to have to work to get back to that level, but it’s very hard to ignore his upside as a No. 1 pitcher in the big leagues.

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): Thank you for the chat! In your personal opinion, are any players besides Zimmer and Frazier strong candidates for the Top 100 list?
Teddy Cahill: Zimmer and Frazier will be on the Top 100, and I very much expect Aiken will be as well. I’d throw in Sheffield and Bradley was serious contenders, with Sheffield obviously more likely to make it. I haven’t made out my personal top 150 yet so I’m not entirely sure where I’d place them, but the way they played as teenagers in the Midwest League definitely stands out.

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): Zimmer is obviously a 5 tool talent with star potential but what do you think about his abillity to hit at the higher levels? Does his .219 with 54 Ks in 187 ABs in AA raise any red flags? Thanks for the chat !
Teddy Cahill: That obviously wasn’t an ideal performance once he got to Akron, but there are a couple mitigating factors that make it easier to give him a pass for now. The first is that for most of the time he was in Akron he was playing through a hairline fracture in his foot that wasn’t discovered until the season ended. The second is that he was playing in Double-A in his first full pro season. It’ll be key for him to get that turned around this year when he goes back to Akron, but the level of concern isn’t particularly high right now.

Clark (JCNY): Can you tell me more about Triston McKenzie? I expected to see him a little higher up. What's his upside and ETA? Thanks!
Teddy Cahill: McKenzie was the Indians’ second pick in this year’s draft and he got the second largest bonus for a player drafted after the first round this year. He was an All-American this spring after a massive senior year and he didn’t pitch much after signing because he had already logged 90 innings. He has big upside because he has a good feel for pitching and strong present stuff, but also has a lot of room to get bigger and stronger, which should help him add velocity. Scouts really liked him this spring and the Indians are very excited about him. But it was hard to push him higher up the list just because of how far away he is. A few years ago a player like that in the Indians system would have been in the top five, but as the system has improved, it’s getting harder to move up the rankings.

Jeff E-z Pass (Houston, Texas): Have you guys heard anything for Aiken's return to a mound? Will he definitely pitch this season at some level?
Teddy Cahill: I suppose there are no definites in baseball, but Aiken is very much expected to pitch this season. He had surgery in March and his recover has gone well so far. While the Indians will be cautious with him and have no reason to rush him, he should be ready to go when short-season leagues begin.

CVC (Ohio): Luke Wakamatsu has been called a steal for where he was drafted, why did he fall so far? and if he was drafted much higher would he have been more likely to be higher ranked?
Teddy Cahill: Luke Wakamatsu, the son of former Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu, was the Indians’ 20th round pick in June. Before the draft, he ranked No. 297 on the BA500, but scouts believed he had a strong commitment to Rice, leading to his fall in the draft. So when the Indians took him, I did not expect them to sign him (which J.J. Cooper talked about in our marathon podcast the day after the draft: https://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/baseball-america-draft-podcast-9/). But they were able to get a deal done and he went on to play pretty well in the Arizona League. You’ll find him in the top 30 and he’d probably rank in the same place regardless of what round he went in.

Elliot (Youngstown OH): Adam Plutko only succeeds at every level he’s tackled, but his stuff doesn’t inspire great praise. Can he make it in the big leagues as a starter?
Teddy Cahill: So I’m happy to see a handful of Adam Plutko questions. As people in the office can attest, I love talking about Adam Plutko. I am a firm believer in his ability to start in the big leagues. It’s really just his fastball that gets the faint praise. His changeup is a really good pitch for him and he throws two good breaking balls. But with him it really is about his plus control and baseball IQ. His pitchability is very impressive. All of that means he doesn’t have a massive upside and doesn’t have a large margin for error, but I don’t see any reason why he can be a backend starter fairly soon. He just really knows how to pitch.

a.j. (las vegas): With 700 at-bats above Hi-A, Brantley hurt and Bourn gone why won't Tyler Naquin be the Indians opening day CF?
Teddy Cahill: Since I’ve now broken the seal on Plutko questions, let’s get a Naquin question in. I talk about him almost as much. I think there’s a small chance he could break camp as the Indians center fielder, but realistically that’s not going to happen. He has dealt with a lot of injuries over the last couple years and doesn’t have much time in Triple-A. He would probably benefit from spending some more time in Columbus and then coming up in the summer. But I do think he’ll make his MLB debut this year.

Joe (Atlanta): With 3 outfielders in the top 10 all younger than James Ramsey what is the chance he gets a shot in Cleveland in the next two years? Is his low ceiling hurting him?
Teddy Cahill: It’s not Ramsey’s ceiling that’s hurting him. Maybe on prospect rankings, but not in terms of getting a shot in Cleveland. I think if he’d been having a better season last year you would have seen him. But it’s hard to call a guy up when he’s slumping. If he gets back on track this season, he’ll likely make his debut. There should be opportunities to be had in that outfield this year, but Zimmer, Frazier and Naquin will be big league ready soon, so that depth chart could get crowded in a hurry.

Roy (216): Was Hillman close to making the list?
Teddy Cahill: Lefthander Juan Hillman did receive support for the top 10, but ultimately just missed the cut. Like McKenzie, he parlayed a strong senior year in the Florida high school ranks into a spot on Day 1 of the draft. And like McKenzie he’s more projectable than most top Florida high school pitchers because he won’t turn 18 until this May. He adds another exciting arm to the Indians system.

CVC (Ohio): What pushed McKenzie into top ten over Juan Hillman?
Teddy Cahill: To piggyback on the last question, McKenzie’s edge is based on his upside. If he is able to make the strength gains the Indians believe he can, he would have three above-average pitches and the athleticism to consistently throw them for strikes. Hillman’s breaking ball is not that advanced and he doesn’t have the same kind of potential to make a big jump in velocity, though he may gain some as he physically matures.

Adirondack (Syracuse, NY): Bobby Bradley, the number one power bat in the minors right now? yes or No.
Teddy Cahill: No. As long as Joey Gallo is still prospect eligible, he’ll be the best power bat. Bradley has impressive power, but he’s not quite on that level.

Henry Hasbun (Miami): Does Bobby Bradley have the offensive upside to be an elite prospect as a 1st base only prospect? or the strikeouts limit his ceiling?
Teddy Cahill: Since we’re already talking about Bobby Bradley, let’s take this one. I suppose the answer to this depends on the definition of elite. It would not surprise me if Bradley was the best first base prospect in baseball at some point in his career. But how high that means he ranks on the top 100, I don’t know. The strikeouts are somewhat disconcerting, but he was playing in a pitcher’s park in a pitcher’s league as a teenager. He’s going to need to cut down on them, but I don’t think they’re unacceptable for a player coming from the Mississippi high school ranks playing in a league as tough as the MWL.

Ringo (Octopusses Garden): So who just missed the top 10 list?
Teddy Cahill: I’ve already mentioned that Hillman received some support. Shortstop Erik Gonzalez was talked about, as was Plutko. But it’s probably fair to say Hillman was the closest to the top 10.

Elliot (Youngstown OH): Over the years the Indians have had a batch of college 2nd basemen who debuted among the NYPL’s top hitters [e.g. Scott Pratt, Cord Phelps] but didn’t wind up amounting to much. Joey Wendle looked like another of same, but since he was traded away he’s kept hitting in the upper minors. Now comes Mark Mathias whose debut wasn’t quite as impressive but is rated by BA as the Indians’ best hitting prospect for average. What should we expect?
Teddy Cahill: That is an interesting point and, to be honest, one I hadn’t thought of before now. But if you’re in Youngstown, you’ve had the opportunity to watch Mahoning Valley up close. College second basemen tend not to be highly thought of in the draft because if they’re already playing second base they’re going to have to really keep hitting in pro ball. The Indians believe in Mathias’ ability to do just that. He’s got a strong pedigree, having won the Big West batting title as a sophomore and playing for the Collegiate National Team before suffering a shoulder injury that limited him this spring. Basically it will come down to his feel for hitting.

JB (NY): Carlos Moncrief still considered a prospect given his advanced age and rough 2015?
Teddy Cahill: Moncrief is no longer in the Indians organization. The Giants signed him as a free agent in November. But even if he had stayed with the Tribe, I doubt he would have made the top 30.

Jon (Westlake, OH): Willi Castro seemed to more than hold his own as an 18-year old shortstop in the New York-Penn League. While the starting shortstop job in Cleveland will be in Lindor's hands for quite some time, does Castro have starting SS upside generally?
Teddy Cahill: Yes. The Indians have several interesting shortstop candidates in the low minors – Castro, Wakamatsu, Alexis Pantoja to name a few. Castro has always been young for his league but has kept his head above water and impressed some people. He’s still learning, of course, but his confidence and baseball IQ are very good for his age.

Elliot (Youngstown OH): Clevinger had a quite a full-season Indians’ debut. Can he keep moving up and reach Cleveland in 2016? How does he compare with Cody Anderson as potential back of the rotation arms?
Teddy Cahill: Clevinger definitely was impressive in 2015. When the Indians got him for Vinnie Pestano it seemed like he was little more than a lottery ticket. But they were able to help him make some mechanical adjustments that got him back to pitching like he did before he had Tommy John surgery. If he does that again, he will be in Cleveland this summer. The Indians have several very talented pitchers in the big leagues already, so it won’t be easy for anyone to break in and it may be that he gets his first shot in the bullpen. But I expect you’ll see Clevinger at some point this summer.

Dan (Mid-Atlantic): Has Dorssys Paulino regained some prospect shine with his time in High-A? Seemed to do better (in 43 games, admittedly) once he got out of Lake County
Teddy Cahill: Yes. Paulino had stagnated in Lake County, but the results were much better once he got to Lynchburg. Maybe he can build off that and carry some positive momentum into 2016. One thing that’s important to remember with Paulino is that he’ll play all of this season as a 21-year old. So he’s got time to figure this out.

Mike (Ohio): What's your perspective on the the swing and miss in Frazier's game? Contact - primarily stemming from breaking pitches - seems to remain a significant problem to overcome, but he also seemed to improve over the course of the year, and he's still young for the level. Overall seems like a higher-risk profile that could bust out, or find a way to make loud power play in game - is that a fair way to look at it?
Teddy Cahill: Frazier did a great job to cut down on his strikeouts this season, going from a 30 percent strikeout rate to 21 percent this year. There were some adjustments he made to quiet his swing and help him make more consistent contact. As he did that, his overall numbers improved and he did a good job of getting to his power. It’s rather unlikely that he cuts his strikeouts down that much again, but as long as he continues to make some progress in that department, he’ll be fine. He should start the season in Double-A and will be 21 all season.

Doug (MA): Who makes it to the bigs first: Bradley or Kyle Zimmer? Seems like Bradley is really closing in on his older brother Kyle, who was drafted several year earlier.
Teddy Cahill: This has become a much tighter race than originally anticipated. Bradley has a chance to beat his big brother to the big leagues, but I think Kyle remains the favorite, even with his track record of injuries.

Kyle (Florida): Just making sure you get at least one Brady Aiken question, what kind of pitcher can fans expect this year? And going forward? Is he still an elite pitching prospect?
Teddy Cahill: I don’t think we have to worry about not getting enough questions about Brady Aiken anytime soon. But, this year, I think you’ll see him get back on the mound and probably pitch pretty effectively while going through some of the growing pains all pitchers do as they recover from surgery. Longterm, he has ace upside. I remain a big believer in Aiken. There’s risk there, but everyone has praise for his work ethic, makeup and baseball IQ. If he can just get his stuff back, he should be fine.

Elliot (Youngstown OH): Mitch Brown seems to bounce from bad year to good year to bad year. 2015 was pretty bad: 5.15 ERA 1.42 WHIP. What’s the current prognosis?
Teddy Cahill: Brown definitely took a step back in 2015. But it’s premature to give up on him. His stuff is good, he just has to figure out a way to repeat his delivery so he can throw more strikes. It’s more likely he is a reliever long term, but he’ll pitch this season as a 22-year old and has some time to figure it out.

Jonny (Canada): Who are some sleepers from the lower levels?
Teddy Cahill: I really struggle to ID sleepers because I feel like if I know their name they aren’t sleepers. But I think you’re looking at guys like Anthony Santander, Jonas Wyatt, Sam Henges, Micah Miniard, Grant Hockin, Justin Garza and Todd Isaacs. A few of those feel more famous though.

Cid (Columbus-Ohio): So. Cal. prep Jonas Wyatt has yet to give up an extra base hit in his 17 innings. Small sample size or did the Indians get a steal in the draft?
Teddy Cahill: Both? Wyatt is still fairly new to pitching, but he’s got some good arm strength and athleticism. His work ethic and determination to get better is really impressive. He definitely has upside and is one to watch.

Dave (Eugene Oregon): What are your thoughts on Nelson Rodriguez?
Teddy Cahill: Lots of questions about Nellie Rodriguez today. He’s hit his way up the list and led the Carolina League with 17 home runs this season. But he’s limited to first base and right-right first basemen are tough to profile. If he keeps hitting, he’ll get a chance, but he’s got to keep hitting.

Joe the plumber (Toledo, Ohio): Who would you pick from the this list to have a big impact for Cleveland in 2016?
Teddy Cahill: The two most likely to make a significant impact in Cleveland this year are Naquin and Clevinger. I wouldn’t be stunned if Zimmer got to Cleveland this year, but the guys to watch coming up will be Naquin and Clevinger. And Shawn Armstrong will get an opportunity out of the bullpen.

TJ (Tacoma): How much has Adam Plutko's stuff improved since he left UCLA? Can he crack the big-league rotation this season?
Teddy Cahill: Plutko’s stuff is largely the same. He showed more velocity late this season, getting up to 94 mph, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to hold that over the course of the season. But he knows how to get outs with what he has. The Indians are a tough place to breakthrough into the rotation with so many talented young starters, but he certainly has a chance. I think he makes his debut sometime this summer.

Dave (Brooklyn): Mike Papi: On the Upswing, Treading Water, Headed Down? Did he make the Top 30?
Teddy Cahill: I suppose this kind of depends on where the previous data point was. It’s definitely down from where he was this time last year, but he also started to bounce back in the second half for Lynchburg. He was tough to figure out where to rank. But you will see him in the top 30. He struggled to get his strength back after suffering a thumb injury at the end of the 2014 season. But he did get better as the season went on and he maintained his discipline at the plate. He needs to build some positive momentum, but he has the tools to get back on track.

Greg (Ohio): Was just wondering if the prospect handbook will have scouting grades for all these guys? And when does the handbook come out? Thanks for the chat!
Teddy Cahill: This is a good place to end. The handbook has tool grades for the No. 1 prospects (Zimmer) and overall BA grades for the other 29 prospects, plus full tools breakdowns in the writeups. We have sent the book to the publisher and it will be out soon. Remember you get it fastest if you order directly from BA (https://www.baseballamerica.com/store/store.cgi) and we throw in a supplement with a No. 31 prospect for every team. So it’s a pretty good deal.

Teddy Cahill: Thanks everyone for your questions this afternoon. I know I didn’t get to everyone, so if you want, just leave your question in the comments and I’ll try and answer it there. Always enjoyable to talk Indians prospects.