Chicago White Sox Top 10 Prospects Chat

Matt Eddy: Welcome to the White Sox chat. It’s my first time tackling this organization, so looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

@Jaypers413 (IL): Where would Montas, Johnson and Thompson have ranked?
Matt Eddy: All three appear in the Prospect Handbook in the White Sox chapter. RHP Frankie Montas ranks No. 3, OF Trayce Thompson No. 5 and 2B Micah Johnson No. 8. Montas could be ready for a bullpen role in 2016 if the Dodgers pursue that option. Rival talent evaluators seemed to place stock in Thompson’s two-month stretch in the majors, so he might have found a new level. Johnson will be a fine NL player, especially if he can learn to play LF and CF as well as 2B. If he doesn’t reach his ceiling as a table-setter, then at least he would have pinch-hit and pinch-run value.

Frank (Chicago): How many of the top ten could make the BA 100?
Matt Eddy: SS Tim Anderson and RHP Carson Fulmer are sure bets. They have high ceilings and performance track records. RHP Spencer Adams would have to be considered at least *a* candidate for the back quarter of the list. I imagine he would make my personal list.

Eric (NY): Keon Barnum - prospect or suspect?
Matt Eddy: A prospect . . . if just barely. It’s hard for teams to walk away from the type of power that Barnum possesses. Contact rate is going to make or break him as a prospect. He actually produces hits and extra bases when he connects, but his SO rate ranked in the 10th percentile for Carolina League batters in 2015.

Chris (Peoria,IL): How far is Micker Aldopho,the 19-year old from being MLB ready?
Matt Eddy: RF Micker Adolfo had as much power as any prospect in the 2013 international signing class, but an injury-wracked 2015 campaign means that he has batted fewer than 300 times in two pro seasons, all in the Arizona League. He has hit .229 with just OK power, so all signs point to him requiring a significant amount of development time. The short-term goal should be staying healthy and producing at Great Falls of the Pioneer League in 2016.

Grant (NYC): Matt, what can you tell us about 3B/SS Johan Cruz? Where is he most likely to settle at on the diamond?
Matt Eddy: Scouts who saw Johan Cruz in the Pioneer League and in instructional league like him best at SS. The White Sox played him mostly at 3B at Great Falls because they wanted to create playing time for 26th-round senior Grant Massey. Cruz has good hands, double-plus arm strength and enough range and adaptability to handle SS. He doesn’t project to have much power or speed, so a best case might be utility infielder, perhaps along the lines of Carlos Sanchez, minus the switch-hit bat but perhaps with better SS instincts.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Any hope that the bat of Cleuluis Rondon will pick up in the future? I'm expecting a plunge from his 2015 handbook ranking of 16th best sox prospect.
Matt Eddy: Being new to the system, I had my eye on SS Cleuluis Rondon based on his reputation as a defensive wizard, but, alas, I could not find anybody who thought he would hit enough to reach the majors, even as a utility option. He did not rank in the top 30 this year.

Matt (Naperville, IL): Did Jordan Stephens get considered for your list? Thanks for chatting.
Matt Eddy: The White Sox forfeited their second- and third-round picks in 2015 when they signed free agents Melky Cabrera and David Robertson, so without those extra picks (or bonus-pool money), they prioritized college pitchers. They came away with Vanderbilt’s Carson Fulmer (first round), Clemson’s Zack Erwin (fourth) and Rice’s Jordan Stephens (fifth). Chicago ended up trading Erwin to the Athletics to acquire Brett Lawrie, but he appears in the White Sox chapter in the Prospect Handbook, where he ranks behind Stephens, despite going off the board one round earlier. Ultimately, Stephens probably fits best as a high-leverage reliever. He has two plus pitches and a hard-nosed demeanor, and he might have advanced to full-season ball in his debut had he not endured a heavy workload at Rice in 2015 or missed 2014 to Tommy John surgery.

Matt C (Future Sox) (Chicago): Hello Matt - nice work on the list. Only big surprise to me is Jacob May at 5. He's got a decent feel to hit and plenty of speed, but hasn't shown much power, hasn't hit well for more than brief stretches, and hasn't got a great arm for CF. Does he look like a future regular to you, or more likely a 4th OF?
Matt Eddy: Double-A CF Jacob May was the toughest player to rank in the top 10, and perhaps some of my Southern League bias creeps through. Not that I am biased in favor of the SL so much as I am most familiar with the league after ranking its top 20 prospects in September. Scouts who saw May in that league context came away impressed with his ability to hit, run, get on base via walks and defend CF. Not to mention they view him as a plus makeup/work ethic guy who plays the game intelligently. The way I rationalize his ranking here is that I give him full credit for his pre-concussion performance (.359 OBP in 52 G) but only partial credit for his post work (.295 OBP in 46 G).

DR (East Coast): Is Eddy Alvarez's age the main thing keeping him off the top 10? He's shown outstanding contact and speed for someone who hasn't played competitively in forever
Matt Eddy: High-A Winston-Salem SS Eddy Alvarez was my favorite player to write for the White Sox chapter. You owe it to yourself to Google him to learn about his speed-skating past and recovery from major surgery on both knees. I also love that he just walked on to the Salt Lake CC team and took over as everyday SS while learning to switch-hit. So while Alvarez gave most of his early 20s to speed-skating, he is by no means new to baseball. However, given his diminutive stature, lack of power and probable inability to play SS at the highest levels, he looks like a small ball-oriented second baseman. I’m not writing him off by any means — he has won over many critics — but keep expectations in check. Perhaps he could develop along the lines of the Padres’ Alexi Amarista?

VandyGuy (VandyLand): Obviously Carson Fulmer's delivery and mechanics were divisive in the scouting community--incredibly violent but incredibly successful. Are the Sox trying to tweak his delivery at all, or are they letting Carson be Carson?
Matt Eddy: So many major league starters pitch with deliveries you would never use as a template to teach kids. One White Sox official even cited an all-star MLB starter who lunges at batters in a similar fashion as Fulmer. From what I can gather, the White Sox view Fulmer’s pitching mechanics as part of his essence and that they don’t want to alter his throwing motion so much as they want him to remain tall in his delivery to maintain angle on his pitches.

Derek (Lexington, KY): Courtney Hawkins has consistently fallen since being drafted 1st by the Sox in 2012. He's gone from 1st to 6th to 9th. But he keeps hanging around. What do you think he projects as?
Matt Eddy: Because he doesn’t control the strike zone or run, Double-A LF Courtney Hawkins must make the most of his at-bats that end in him making contact. He did that in 2015 in between DL stints by hitting for extreme power and hitting .335 on balls in play. Multiple sources indicated that Hawkins’ dedication to diet and conditioning improved in 2015, which might be the most positive sign possible. He really doesn’t do enough extra things to profile as a big league reserve, so Hawkins must hit enough to hold down a starting corner OF job.

Greg (Cincy): Why has this org had such a hard time developing profile 3rd basemen?
Matt Eddy: I think it’s equal parts bad luck and just an underappreciation for the unique nature of the skills required to profile as an MLB third baseman. Think about how shallow that pool is. A third basemen must have the reflexes and hands to handle hot smashes, the arm to make throws from the third-base line and he also must be able to produce about 90 to 95 percent as much as a first baseman, particularly in terms of power. Or maybe White Sox fans were spoiled by Robin Ventura and (somewhat by) Joe Crede!

Connor Reed (Wallingford): Question about recent graduate Carlos Rodon. In the long term, how do you see him compared to last year's other top rookies (McCullers, Syndergaard, E-Rod, Nola, Heaney, Owens, Severino, Norris, Ross, Wisler, etc.)? Does he still realistically have more potential than all of them?
Matt Eddy: My opinion is that Carlos Rodon has more potential than any 2015 rookie pitcher save for the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard. The White Sox like to challenge their prospects, particularly first-round picks, and Rodon pitched just 34 innings in the minors before reaching Chicago. Think about that: that’s less of an apprenticeship than past college hot shots like Tim Lincecum or Stephen Strasburg received. (Granted, Chris Sale pitched just 14 minor league innings, but then his first MLB role was reliever, not starter.) Rodon showed significant and real second-half improvement in 2015, reducing his walk rate and reducing the rate of hard contact allowed. Thanks to the magic of FanGraphs.com leaderboards, we also can see that Rodon generated swinging strikes about 10% of the time for a rate that ranked him 41st among the 133 starters who recorded 100 innings. He lives in the same neighborhood (in this metric) as Gerrit Cole, Jon Lester, Johnny Cueto and Justin Verlander. Of course, those pitchers throw more strikes and—significantly—more first-pitch strikes. Rodon threw the lowest percentage of first-pitch strikes in this sample … but research has indicated that pitchers can learn this skill, unlike, say, learning to throw harder or miss bats.

Derek (Lexington, KY): Eric Johnson used to show up in the Top 10, then he had a terrible 2014. But he bounced back in 2015 with a 2.37 ERA in Charlotte and 3.34 ERA in 6 starts in Chicago. What should the Sox expect from him in 2016?
Matt Eddy: I didn’t dig too deep on RHP Erik Johnson because he exhausted his prospect eligibility in 2014. His pitcher-of-the-year performance in the IL in 2015 is encouraging, but the warning signs here are flashing bright red. He’s a flyball pitcher with poor control in a good hitter’s park. That’s a recipe for trouble.

marc (ny): do the sox's have any good lhp in the minors
Matt Eddy: Losing Carlos Rodon to the majors and Zack Erwin to the Lawrie trade thinned the herd, but Winston-Salem teammates Jordan Guerrero and Brian Clark are quality LH pitching prospects with enough velocity and feel for secondary stuff to project to major league roles. Jace Fry, the 2014 third-rounder from Oregon State, also showed promise but he had most of his 2015 wiped out by his second career Tommy John surgery.

Derek (Lexington, KY): What is the percent chance Tim Anderson is starting SS at Opening Day? Then All-Star Break? Then September?
Matt Eddy: You will definitely see Tim Anderson in Chicago in 2016, but I get the sense that won’t be until June or later. The White Sox will surely want to see how Brett Lawrie adjusts to playing 2B every day, and the team has insured itself against a lack of SS options by importing minor league FAs Andy Parrino and Steve Lombardozzi to have as backups to Tyler Saladino.

@SoxNerd (SoxVille USA): The acquisition of 3 veteran catchers must speak to the fact that Sox don't think they have any prospects at the position who are close. Agree? And, who are the catchers who are closest to being MLB ready?
Matt Eddy: Catcher is definitely an area of weakness in the system. I think the White Sox view Rob Brantly as the best internal option, but he suffered through an injury year in 2015. If all goes according to plan, Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro will hand the torch over to Brantly in 2017. The best of the rest are are all impossibly far from the majors: 2015 12th-rounder Seby Zavala, DSL catcher Carlos Perez and the Arizona League’s Jhoandro Alfaro (who is Jorge’s little brother).

EB (Washington, DC): How heavily did Adam Engel's AFL performance weigh in his grade? Does BA think he can be a starting caliber CF?
Matt Eddy: I had written all the top 10 reports before the AFL season ended. Don’t forget: Engel ranked No. 10 prior to the Todd Frazier trade that stripped Montas, Thompson and Johnson from the top 10.

Steve (Vegas): Why have these chat's gotten so bad? 12 questions in over an hour, and none were really wordy or difficult.

 

Joe Random (San Jose): Where will Tim Anderson fall in your top 50 overall prospect list? top 25?
Matt Eddy: I had him in the 31-40 range as I recall.

Derek (KY): Where do you rank the Sox system as a whole, compared to other major league teams?
Matt Eddy: The Frazier and Lawrie trades cost them one Top 100-caliber prospect (Montas) and really reduced the level of depth. They are now a 21-30, bottom-third system.

Dan (Mid-Atlantic): Trey Michalczewski has always been young for his level and held his own. Any chance there is 20-25 HR power in that bat?
Matt Eddy: Yes, Michalczewski has an intriguing blend of present ability and projection based on maturity/strength gains. He has benefited IMO from spending one full year at each Class A stop. I would set 15-20 as a more reasonable goal. Trivia — here are the switch-hitters who have gone deep 20 times in a season since 2013: Victor Martinez, Mark Teixeira (twice), Carlos Santana (twice), Carlos Beltran, Neil Walker, Kendrys Morales (twice), Coco Crisp (!), Nick Swisher, Matt Wieters and Justin Smoak.

Matt Eddy: Thanks for the great questions and the interest in Top 10 Prospects chats. You can ask further questions on Twitter: @MattEddyBA