Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects Chat

Frank (Indianapolis IN): How many of these guys are likely to make the BA 100?
John Manuel: Fine place to start, Frank. I’m bullish on the Jays system; I could see at least 6 Jays in the Top 100, down to Rowdy Tellez, and could see Bo Bichette and/or TJ Zeuch in as well. Bo had a loud debut; in some early iterations of this list, I almost had him as high as No. 4 in some iterations of this list. Eventually I tempered my enthusiasm. But I could see him & Zeuch being Top 100 as well. I really like this system’s top 10.

Sam (Toronto ON): Should we be keeping an eye on rhp Yennsy Diaz? Will he be in the handbook?
John Manuel: He’ll be in the Handbook, but he’s still pretty far away and pretty raw. We’ll have to see how the Jays bring him along, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he stayed in extended spring next year again and then opened with short-season Vancouver. Live arm but a long way to go with the secondary stuff and fastball command.

Matt Veasey (Philadelphia, PA): Rowdy Tellez: good enough hitter to eventually be a legit middle order 1B/DH threat for a contender? Top 100 prospect? What do you see in the future in the bigs?
John Manuel: I like Rowdy, a lot. For me, he’s in the same discussion with the other top 1Bs in the minors. That discussion starts with Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers for me, then it’s a question of who’s next? Dom Smith of the Mets, Jake Bauers and Casey Gillaspie of the Rays, Chris Shaw of the Giants, Bobby Bradley of the Indians … he’s right in the mix with that group. I’m a believer in the bat, he controls the K zone, he doesn’t strike out excessively, he holds his own against LHPs; I see a lot to like. His athleticism and defense are fringy but he’s worked hard to get in better shape and has improved in both areas. The arrows are all pointed up with Rowdy Tellez. I like him a lot.

Gerry (Toronto): Which outfielder ranks higher? Reggie Pruitt, Lane Thomas or Josh Palacios? Are they all top 30 prospects? Thanks John.
John Manuel: Right now, I lean toward Palacios because of the hitting ability. He didn’t get to play CF at Auburn because of the presence of Anfernee Grier (the No. 1 name I want to hear Peter Gammons say out loud), but the Jays think he’s got a shot to stick there. Pruitt’s the better defender and athlete but the bat is raw. Lane Thomas ranks third in this group. The hitting track record is pretty threadbare at this point.

Warren (New London): What do you make of Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez at this point? The Pirates don't seem to have thought they had much value.
John Manuel: They both just missed the top 10, in particular McGuire. I make them both to be prospects but with some challenges. McGuire’s power production has been non-existent as a pro. Right now he’s trending toward a Jeff Mathis type of career. That would be lucrative for Reese McGuire, but I thought that wasn’t quite enough to crack the top 10. Harold Ramirez reminds a lot of folks of Jose Tabata, and that again wasn’t quite enough to push him into the top 10. Obviously the Pirates-Jays trade had a lot to do with the financial ramifications of Francisco Liriano’s contract as well and wasn’t a straight talent deal.

Sam (Lake Stevens): After missing the entire 2015 season due to injury, Lansing's Jordan Romano came back with a dominate performance in Class-A. He struck out more than one batter per inning and kept his ERA around two. What are your thoughts on him?
John Manuel: Romano’s going to have a full Handbook report. My descriptions of him remind me a bit in the big picture of Joe Biagini, maybe because both have Italian names. Like Biagini, Romano is at his best when he’s aggressive, and the folks I have talked to about him seem to like him in a future bullpen role. His fastball stands out for having a high spin rate, giving it late life through the strike zone and good finish.

Mark (Toronto): Simply because of his last name, Cavan Biggio should be of interest to Toronto fans. I thought he played really well in his first professional season, hitting for a good average with a great contact rate. How does his career compare with his dad's at this point? (Given that Craig didn't hit for power immediately, either)
John Manuel: It’s never fair to compare a player to a Hall of Famer. I know because I’ve done it and it’s ridiculous for me to have done. So Cavan has been getting comped to his dad forever, which isn’t fair to him. Let’s just assess what he is. He’s a lefthanded hitter unlike his dad. He’s a good hitter who really controls the strike zone very well; I gave him best K zone discipline in the organization. He did it throughout his career at Notre Dame. I’ve seen him in person a lot and he’s just a modest athlete with savvy and hitting ability. His total package as a player is more Tommy La Stella than Craig Biggio. He can be a big leaguer but his contact rate needs to improve; he struck out a lot in college for such a good hitter.

Brandon (Detroit): A little surprised to not see Bichette higher after his debut. How close was he to passing Zeuch?
John Manuel: Very close, but the position questions, plus the fact that I think highly of Zeuch, made me switch those guys at the last minute. Let’s face it; Bichette went 66th overall in the draft. If you re-drafted right now he’d probably go 20-30 spots higher, but still behind Zeuch. It’s a great sign for the Jays that they have a very legit top 10; I think the system’s top half is quite robust, and it’s a top 10 farm system for me. The only top 10 guy who didn’t have a strong performance year in 2016 is Conner Greene; Alford did well considering his injuries and is tearing up the AFL so far. But all 10 of these guys, for me, are typical top 10 type guys. None of these guys are forced in or require a ton of projection.

Brandon (Detroit): What do you think the odds are Zeuch ends up as a starter in the big leagues?
John Manuel: Yes. The fastball has velocity, he commands it and it has good plane. He can go through a lineup 2-3 times with his fastball quality and the fact he has 2 distinct secondary pitches, curve & slider. He’s a 4 pitch guy with a good fastball and good body, plus a fresh arm. Kudos to Hudson Belinsky who pointed Zuech out last year when he first started here, saw him against Virginia early in the season and pegged him as a 2016 first-rounder at the time. Good call Hudson!

Dave (DC): Thanks for the chat. Obviously you have the advantage of seeing one stateside for a year, but if you had to choose between Vlad Jr. And Maitan today, who do ya got?
John Manuel: That’s really tough; I’ve never seen Maitan. I’d give Vlad a slight edge because his bad sounds so robust, but man, Maitan almost sounds too good to be true and is certainly regarded as a more well-rounded, better athlete. Certainly will be a fascinating question come Top 100 time. I think Vlad Jr. has one of the highest ceilings in the minors because of his offensive profile; he could be pretty high on my personal Top 100. The bat’s going to play for Guerrero; I just have a high degree of certainty in his offensive profile. The only question scouts seem to have with him is the body. It’s not a reach to think of him as a future Edwin Encarnacion who gets to his peak sooner.

John (Atlanta): Where do you see Alford starting in 2017. What's his ceiling ? Thanks .
John Manuel: I would imagine Alford will start in Double-A. He’s got to stay healthy but he’s running well in the AFL according to our reports and making up for some lost time. He didn’t lose much luster with me in terms of prospect status; he could have been No. 1. I just think that highly of Vlad Jr. Alford’s ceiling remains a potential all-star, 60 ceiling type of guy with power, speed and solid defense in CF who could be plus on a corner if Dalton Pompey re-emerges in CF.

Jon (Peoria): Where do Angel Perdomo and Ryan Borucki rank among the pantheon of Blue Jays pitchers?
John Manuel: Both 11-20 range. Borucki figures prominently in the Best Tools chart at Best Changeup & Best Control. He clearly bounced back from the poor start at Dunedin. They Jays wanted him to pitch in the warm weather even if he wasn’t ready for that level of competition, and it showed that he wasn’t ready. He showed some grit & toughness in that the poor start didn’t ruin his season. He didn’t miss the top 10 by much. Perdomo is almost his opposite, though both are LHPs. Borucki repeats his delivery; Perdomo does not. Borucki’s stuff is generally consistent start to start and he has a fairly advanced approach to pitching for his age. Perdomo generally is inconsistent with his delivery and quality of stuff. Perdomo throws harder; still not 100% sure how I’ll rank them.

Don (Rosemont, IL): What's the latest on Max Pentecost's arm? Is he going to resume catching next year or is his long-term future as a DH?
John Manuel: He’s had multiple shoulder injuries and had an elbow issue out of high school. I don’t think it’s reasonable to look for him to catch. He can hit; I see 1B or LF in his future. He’s athletic enough to give LF a chance, and I like the bat.

Noel (Portland): Are the chats going to be the day following the release of the lists this year, or has this been an abnormal week?
John Manuel: We’re experimenting. This way the Top 10 might get traffic for 2 days instead of one big burst … I kind of like it this way, but feel free to let us know at letters at baseballamerica dot com.

Keith (Farmington, CT): Thanks John. There were concerns about Bo Bichette's swing mechanics at draft time. Did his excellent-yet-brief GCL performance dispel all that? Please tell me we can go Boba-chette crazy. #Boknowsstarwars
John Manuel: There are still questions about it; you don’t dispel preconceived notions in 22 games. So we’ll see how Bo handles full-season ball. I will say Dante Jr. also was a robust hitter in the GCL, but I think Bo > Dante Jr. By the way, we love saying his name as if he were a bounty hunter; he should wear No. 88 in honor of IG-88.

arnold (hays): How far has Dalton Pompey's stock fallen?
John Manuel: He’s just not prospect-eligible anymore. He lost eligibility last year, after the 2015 season. I know the organization likes the progress he’s made because I asked about him, forgetting that he was no longer eligible . . . He would have made the Top 10. Would have been a tough call on him vs. Tellez vs. Zeuch. He would have gone 6, 7 or 8. I still think he could be their long-term CF option.

arnold (hays): Is it time to give up on Matt Smoral?
John Manuel: Unfortunately that time was last year. I wish we could see him fully healthy once. He’s an interesting case in the college vs. pro argument; would he have been better off going to college at North Carolina, where maybe he would have stayed healthier just by luck or different circumstances? He got $2 million; hard to look down at that. I haven’t asked him but I wonder, with five years of hindsight, if he had it to do all over again, what would he do?

Nocramps13 (JITH Heaven): Which prospect do you feel has the best chance to crack the Major League lineup in 2017, or at least play a significant amount of time?
John Manuel: I’d give the slight edge to Tellez because of the bat, and being lefthanded for a team that even if it loses Bautista and Encarnacion still tilts righthanded with Travis, Tulo, Donaldson, Martin & Pillar as returning regulars. The DH and potential 1B spots could be there for Tellez to hit his way into consideration.

Todd (SF): Surprised to not see Max Pentecost, is he still the team's catcher of the future? He had a productive year at DH and the previous years' grades said his defense/catching was ahead of his bat.
John Manuel: Not sure whose grades you’re looking at; last year when I wrote Jays and put him No. 8 in our Prospect Handbook, I wrote he had a tantalizing combination of athleticism and hitting ability for a catcher. I also wrote he was still rebuilding arm strength and would need plenty of reps to hone his receiving and blocking skills. Anyone who would have graded him out as defense/catching ahead of his bat in the past … well, that was a mistake. But it wasn’t BA.

Scott (Victoria BC): Do you think Anthony Alford has Lorenzo Cain type upside?
John Manuel: Not a bad comp actually. Pretty sure that is in my notes from a scout who had that on him last year but was withholding judgment this year because he saw Alford early when he was coming off the knee injury. Another scout I talked to this week who saw him in the AFL was quite high on the way he was coming back. Again, Alford only fell to No. 2 because Vlad Jr. is that good.

John (Toronto): With Zeuch appearing at #7 and Jon Harris even lower, is it safe to say the Blue Jays played it safe the last 2 drafts and the upside is therefore limited? Are these guys even #3 SP in the bigs?
John Manuel: It’s not safe to say that. Zeuch has upside of a No. 3 starter; he’s a 4 pitch guy with a potentially true plus fastball. Harris was a “safer” bet, but taken with the No. 29 overall pick, he was a guy who had a chance to be a top 10 pick before falling on draft day. He essentially wound up No. 2 on a bunch of boards between pick No. 8-28. Granted, the 2015 draft wasn’t a great year for college pitching . . . I do not see them as limited upside guys. Josh Tomlin and Kyle Hendricks were thought to be back-end guys at best when they were drafted and coming up through the minor leagues, and now they are about to start Game Three of the World Series. I thought both were solid picks where the Jays took them. I like Harris for a No. 9 prospect. He throws a lot of strikes and has four pitches with some control. He just lacks a true plus.

Ted L Mosby (US and A): Are Jason Leblebijian's recent successes related to his older age at each level or might he have a ceiling as a major leaguer?
John Manuel: He had a really nice year at age 25; I think Jason’s a utility guy at best and a good org guy who will keep getting a chance. The fact he can fill in at SS and showed a bit more power this year were both very positive signs. But I don’t see him in the top 30.

Kevin (Midland): Did Hansel Rodriguez get any consideration for the top 30?
John Manuel: No, because he was traded to the Padres for Melvin Upton Jr. He may have a tough time making that very deep system’s Top 30.

Derek (Panama City, Panama): There are 5 pitching prospects in the Blue Jays top 10 list. Which one of these do you think will make it fastest to the majors?
John Manuel: I still think it will click for Conner Greene, and he’s spent part of each of the last 2 seasons in Double-A. He should beat Sean Reid-Foley there, but Reid-Foley is a surer bet to reach his ceiling, which is fairly considerable. Greene has a higher ceiling because he’s looser and throws harder, but Reid-Foley is the better pitcher and has plenty of stuff in his own right.

Ryan (Toronto): I noticed Alford's swing reminded me a lot of Donaldson. Was it always like this? And what kind of power should we be expecting?
John Manuel: He got a longer report last year as the No. 1 prospect; I wrote last year that he starts with a high back elbow, which Bo Bichette does as well. For Alford that leads to a bit longer bat path and made it hard to get to his power consistently, but he’s tempered that a bit this year. It’s still a point of emphasis for him in the AFL, to improve his path to the ball and through the zone to get a little more loft.

Jim (Wisconsin): Where do you think about infielder John LaPrise out of Virginia?
John Manuel: I liked him in college and wrote him up as Best HItter in last year’s draft. He’s got to show a bit more on the other tools, particularly power, to project as a regular. But there’s hitting ability there, and that’s a good place to start. Decent athlete and runner but not exceptional in any regard other than his bat-to-ball skills.

Nick (Tennessee): Are the scouting grades given to the number one prospect on these lists ceiling grades or realistic grades?
John Manuel: The wording we use is, “Based on 20-80 scouting scale and future projection rather than present grades.”

BK (Abbotsford, BC): Vlad Jr with a 60 hit, 70 power, 50 D projection blew me away! That sounds like a potential future MVP candidate to me! How did his arm go from below average to a potential plus tool?
John Manuel: Regarding Vlad’s arm strength, it started when the Jays first put him at third base; he uses a shorter arm stroke in the infield than he did in the outfield as an amateur, and the ball actually comes out of his hand better from the shorter, quicker stroke. Second, he actually has worked on throwing and defense; it sounds like he rarely did that before signing his pro contract. He’s improved his footwork and gotten on a throwing program, and the arm has gone up at least a grade since he signed. We actually had him as a 45 defense, fringy, 50 speed, 55 arm . . . He’s not a 50 runner out of the box but underway he gets moving fine.

Scott D (Toronto): People seem to be mixed on the power potential of Rowdy Tellez. Some say he has plus power potential, others say he doesn't as he does not have great bat speed. Your thoughts?
John Manuel: There’s more than one way to generate plus power; some do it via bat speed, some via strength and leverage in the swing. Tellez has average bat speed, maybe a tick above, but he’s got the strength and leverage part down. It’s easy to give him above-average to plus power, and he has feel for hitting so he gets to his power.

Jeff (Toronto): Is there anyone in the system, that if all broke the right way, could surprise as a dominate late inning reliever in next two seasons?
John Manuel: The obvious answer is Sean Reid-Foley; I had a Papelbon comp thrown on him last year. Both are from Jacksonville, I think that was one reason I got the comp. For someone less obvious. Patrick Murphy is the pick, he’s throwing it up to 96 in his first healthy year back from three rough years of arm problems & surgery. If he can keep building arm strength, and he and Romano that we mentioned earlier would be the likely back-end guys who could move quickly.

Matt (London, ON): Richard Urena actually went down a spot on the rankings this year after a great season. Does that show the overall progression the Blue Jays farm has had overall?
John Manuel: Good way to ask it. I really like Urena, he’s got a lot of average to above-average tools, and on the right day you’ll see a plus here or there but not consistently. The top 5 this year is the same as last year, with one 17-year-old wunderkind interloper who moved to the front. Urena vs. Greene was hard for me. I’m probably the high man on Conner Greene, but the stuff is just too much for me to ignore on Greene. He probably has the No. 3 ceiling in the system but is less likely to get to his ceiling than Urena. But I like Urena as a Ryan Goins type defensively—i.e., good enough to play shortstop but really good as a 2B—but with much more offensive potential than Goins. He’s got a chance to be a very good player.

Scott D (Toronto): How big an impact do you think Ben Cherington will have on the system.
John Manuel: He obviously has a strong track record in player development from his Red Sox tenure. Again, I thought the Jays had done very well in the farm system this year after trading away so much talent the last couple of years, and I liked the job Brian Parker, Blake Davis & the scouting department was doing. The system has reloaded, it has developed well, it has been active internationally (former director Ismael Cruz deserves a shout-out too) . . . But the Shapiro-Atkins crew is in charge now, and they are allowed to bring in their own guys. Cherington fits that template; he’s smart, he’s experienced, he melds scouting and analytics well. They’ll do it a bit differently, a bit more risk-averse than Anthopoulos & Co. were. At the same time, they are dealing with the AL attendance leader and a team that has larger revenue sources than they had in Cleveland, so maybe they’ll take a few more risks.

Scott D (Toronto): Has Dwight Smith Jr. reached his ceiling or does he still have a chance to be a useful big leaguer?
John Manuel: He still has a chance but he’ll be at the back of the 30 if he makes it. He just turned 24 yesterday—happy birthday Dwight!—and when you look at some of the guys who have gotten starts in the playoffs in left field this year, he still has a chance. Ezequiel Carrera, Coco Crisp at this stage of his career, even Chris Coghlan, Andrew Toles (better tools than Smith for sure) . . . Smith could still hit his way to being a second-division regular type, but I don’t think the Jays are counting on it.

Scott D (Toronto): How likely is an international draft in the next CBA? If they do it, who will it benefit and who will it hurt? I assume the international prospects are the ones that would be hurt the most by this.
John Manuel: We were just talking about this, which is why the chat pace slowed down a bit. I’m an international draft advocate, but I understand why some are not. The international prospects “hurt” the most by this are Cubans; the Cuban free agents are the ones who broke the international bonus pools. The pools were not perfect but they seemed to be doing what they were intended to do except for the outpouring of Cuban talent that teams like the Red Sox, Cubs and especially Dodgers have paid a premium to acquire. To me the whole intention of a draft system is to depress signing bonuses, or at least slow their growth. That’s what the bonus pools have done in the domestic draft; we still haven’t had a bonus exceeding Gerrit Cole’s $8 million from 2011 under the new system. I would imagine that an international draft would keep the bonuses of top stars out of the Moncada $31.5 million range, but I would be OK with that if the money were more spread around toward players on the lower levels. I don’t have a huge problem with the concept of the guys who are getting $30 million in one fell swoop are the Kershaws, Stantons and Trouts of the world and not players paid solely for their potential. I am not arguing right or wrong of it; I’m just saying I’m cool with a system where the top earners are truly those who have earned it. It’s funny how the Moncada bonus parallels what happened before the start of the domestic draft, where Rick Reichart got $205,000, more than Mickey Mantle was making, and here Moncada’s bonus was more than any MLB player’s single-season salary at the time other than Kershaw.

Jays Fan (Cubicle Infamy): You never hear about him, but I was wondering if you have a take on Jonathan Davis. I realize he was old for his league and of slight build, but the number of home runs, stolen bases & walks he amassed this past season was nothing to sneeze at. Thanks.
John Manuel: He’s got a chance; he may make the top 30 as well because he does have some tools. He’s got a chance to be average in both his power and speed tools, he’s already an above-average runner. Probably not a future regular but there’s a chance for him to become a fourth outfielder. He does have some ability and tools, he wasn’t just a 24-year-old taking advantage of A-ball competition.

Dan (Augusta, ME): First impression of JB Woodman as a pro? BA didn't seem as high on him in the draft as the Blue Jays. Thanks.
John Manuel: Kind of the same as we always have had; he strikes out a lot but he is athletic and has some power. I like Woodman, I just preferred Bryan Reynolds. When I said that on the draft show, I had two scouts from other clubs text me that night to say they agreed with the Jays, that it was close but they preferred Woodman. That will be a fun one to watch long-term. My money is still on Reynolds, but Woodman is an 11-17 range guy, still not 100% sure where I’ll slot him in.

Ryan (Keshet): I am just wondering what about Zeuch makes him better ranked than Harris?
John Manuel: Better fastball, plain and simple.

Scott D (Toronto): Sanchez or Syndergaard and why?
John Manuel: That’s a great question; too bad for the Blue Jays they cannot say both as they did in 2010. I’d give the edge to Syndergaard, his slider is so much better than I ever thought it would be.

Brett (Stratford, ON, Canada): Who are some under the radar prospects to watch out for that could make some noise?
John Manuel: Bradley Jones has real power and is more athletic than a typical corner guy; he even played some shortstop in summer college ball in 2015. No one has asked me about Futures Gamer Francisco Rios, he’s got a chance to be a middle reliever soon if not a back-end starter, he’s starting to learn to pitch more aggressively off his fastball, and he has some feel for spin and using his offspeed.

Matt (London, On): After seeing Andrew Miller's performance this postseason vs the Jays it has me wondering if there is anyone in the Jays system that might not make it as a starter but could have a future as a dominant reliever. Anybody come to mind?
John Manuel: Matt, just remember Andrew Miller was No. 13 in his draft class out of high school — in the whole 2003 draft class — and No. 1 when he came out of North Carolina. He’s just not typical.

Grant (NYC): Ryan McBroom - besides power, are any of his other tools comparable to Tellez? Will he make the 30?
John Manuel: He has a chance to make the 30 and his power resembles that of Rowdy, but he doesn’t have the same feel to hit that Tellez has. He’s also 24 so I’d like to see him do it against higher level competition rather than just mashing in A-ball, but that kind of power in the FSL will get you noticed.

John Manuel: Thanks everyone for coming out. I want to apologize to Johnny from Toronto who asked me a lot of big-picture questions that I may try to pull out for a podcast, but they weren’t Jays-specific questions and I didn’t think they fit for this chat. Thanks for the interest though everyone. Keep checking the schedule for what’s next, with the Yankees posting tomorrow with Josh Norris, our own Ice Bear, taking his turn at the controls. Enjoy!