Ben Badler MLB Prospects Chat (5/8/19)

Image credit: Carter Kieboom (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Ben Badler: Hey everyone, thanks for spending your afternoon talking prospects with me. Let’s get started.

Scott (Toronto):

With Nate Pearson’s successful Double-A debut, do you think he could reach the big leagues this season? How far up the mid season rankings could he end up?

Ben Badler: We have Sixto Sanchez at No. 17 on our Top 100… I think you could make a compelling case for Pearson to be in that same tier. If the Blue Jays were a contender this year, I think he would be up this summer, but I think they play it more conservatively with him.

Fred (Richmond):

What kind of upside does Nico Hoerner have? Can we be looking at a special bat here?

Ben Badler: Above-average regular at shortstop. Good rhythm and balance at the plate, bat control, strike-zone judgment… a lot of qualities you look for a hitter.

William (Reno):

Does Tucupita Marcano have everyday player upside because of the bat, or is he more of a utility player?

Ben Badler: Potential is definitely there to be a regular. One of the better pure hitters in the lower levels of the minors and a baseball IQ well beyond his years.

Warren (New London):

BA ranked Luis Garcia as the #1 prospect in the Gulf Coast League last year in a close decision with Ronny Mauricio, largely because Garcia was considered more likely to stay at shortstop. This year Garcia has struggled both offensively and defensively, with his games almost evenly split between shortstop and second base and 5 errors at each. Meanwhile Mauricio hasn’t been great at bat or in the field, but is holding his own and has stayed at shortstop so far. What are your thoughts on these two at this point? They’re both still really young.

Ben Badler: Garcia’s start has been disappointing, but both he and Mauricio are 18, the same age as high school seniors who are going to head to the GCL after the draft, and we’re only a month into the season. Mauricio’s slash line might not jump out, but still getting a lot of positive reports on him from scouts.

Noel (Portland):

Mackenzie Gore doesn’t seem to be being challenged in Hi A. Could he be in AA the 2nd half of this year? In the big leagues next year?

Ben Badler: The Padres are aggressive and Gore is an elite talent… I could see him in Double-A before the month ends. If he stays healthy, 2020 arrival is very feasible.

Moe (Chicago):

In the past 10 years or so, what prospects have surprised you the most in regards to exceeding expectations or disappointing? My two: I’m always surprised that Donavon Tate didn’t turn into a star and am amazed at how much better Nolan Arenado has been on offense than most predicted. I really appreciate your input, my friend!

Ben Badler: Jurickson Profar I thought would be a star… big leagues at 19 years old, SS who could hit with a sweet swing from both sides, control the zone, flashing power and had scouts who thought he could be an above-average defender.

Ben Badler: On the other end, so many ways to go with later career breakout types… Corey Kluber is one who sticks out. Our reports on him as a prospect were mostly an 88-92 mph guy with average-ish secondaries, he struggled in Triple-A as a 25-year-old…. and a became an ace with a couple of Cy Youngs on his mantle.

Ben Badler: There are so many examples of players who end up surprising you with their development either way. I think it forces you to have humility and embrace the uncertainty of your own projections if you have self awareness.

Brian (Denver):

Justin Toerner was listed as your helium player this week, which I was excited to see. Is he considered a 4th outfielder type or is there a player comp that you see with his skill set? Thank you,

Ben Badler: If the power comes on, he can be an everyday guy.

Rod (Michigan):

Is the Tigers’ Willi Castro an everyday SS or more of a utility guy?

Ben Badler: I don’t see him delivering enough offensive value as an everyday guy.

Joe W (NYC):

Prior years we had guys like Soto, Tatis and Robles absolutely sky rocket up the rankings. Can you identify any young studs that fantasy baseball guys like myself should run and add to our teams before it is to late?

Ben Badler: Jordan Groshans and Vidal Brujan are two big arrow-up guys I love.

mjk (wyckoff,nj):

hi ben…given that Kelenic has been on a number of prospect hot sheets, wondering why he dropped in the top 100? Is it a matter of getting passed by others? Mind you as a Mets fan I am certain he will be an All Star for years. Thanks

Ben Badler: This is a fair question/critique. I think we need to do a better job of the way we present our Top 100 to convey player movement and true stock changes within our Top 100. We were extremely high on Kelenic coming into the year, and, at least as of right now, we’re saying that his value is at about the same level he was a month ago (although if he keeps hitting like this, he’s going to climb higher). The reason his ranking in the Top 100 moved down five spots was because players like Groshans, Hoerner, Pearson, May, and Robert made large leaps up in their stock. So while Kelenic’s value isn’t going down, we have a big red arrow pointing down next to his name, which I don’t think is a proper representation of what’s happening with his value, and that’s on us to do a better job of showing that.

Brian (Denver):

Who has the higher upside? Nico Hoerner or Gavin Lux?

Ben Badler: Lux. More power potential with him.

Johnny (Murrieta):

A lot of talk about Diego Cartaya when he signed with the Dodgers last year but has been virtually unheard of since. Is he truly elite in any categories? Who can he be compared to? Is he as good as his #1 ranking?

Ben Badler: July 2 signings don’t play until the following year, and the DSL/complex leagues haven’t started yet. But I just wrote up a new report on Cartaya in our international reviews with up to date information there.

Scott (Toronto):

Has Cavan Biggio’s hot start increased his ceiling? Do you think he is more likely to end up in the outfield given the Jays glut of infielders?

Ben Badler: I think it’s more that he’s increasing the probability of him reaching upside rather than his ceiling itself changing. He’s getting to hit the PCL Titleists, but he had above-average power last year too and the plate patience has always been there. If the lowered strikeout rate is something he can maintain, he can be an everyday guy, one who might move around the field rather than have one true position.

Josh (My Toilet):

Why the hell aren’t Yordan Alvarez and Brendan Rodgers playing in the Show yet?

Ben Badler: That’s what PCL pitchers want to know.

Ben Badler: I don’t think Alvarez will be in Triple-A much longer.

Tom (MA):

Can Alejandro Kirk stick at C? It looks like he has lost a significant amount of weight, and he’s been quickly moving up the ranks after a bunch of lost development time.

Ben Badler: Defense is still the big question with him, but this dude can hit, and I’m following Josh Norris on to the Alejandro Kirk bandwagon here.

Jeff (Idaho):

Who would you take – Jo Adell or Luis Robert? With Robert coming on this year, do you see Adell and Robert as pretty similar players – speed, power, athletic, maybe some need to improve plate discipline?

Ben Badler: Adell. Two years younger and I think he has a higher probability to hit and cut down on his strikeouts compared to Robert.

Angie (Denver):

Is Byron Buxton finally turning it around?

Ben Badler: I think so. If he can stay healthy and be a league-average offensive performer (I think he can, and that there’s more offensive upside in there too), that’s a 4-5 win player with his defense in CF.

Frederick (Boston):

What was the reason for Eric Pardinho falling nearly 20 spots?

Ben Badler: Elbow injury.

Moe (Chicago):

Obligatory Vladdy Jr. question: do the Jays stick with him and hope he figures it out or send him back to AAA to make adjustments? Small sample size, I know.

Ben Badler: He’s there to stay.

Clayton (Galveston):

My man! Thank you for the chat! I’m dying to know: how does Tampa figure out where to send Brendan McKay? If his pitching should be at, say AA, but his hitting hasn’t advanced beyond HiA, do they just send him to AA and hope his hitting catches up? I appreciate it!

Ben Badler: It’s a great question. I don’t think the Rays quite know how to handle it either. His pitching is what’s carrying his value right now though, so I think that has to be the main driver.

Ron (Phoenix):

Any concern with Royce Lewis’s numbers this year? He’s warming up a bit but curious on your take.

Ben Badler: A little, but right now I think it’s more slow start than long term concern.

Mike (Walnut Creek CA):

Who is Ben Badler’s #1 pick in the MLB draft? Who on the BA staff would be most against it and why?

Ben Badler: Adley Rutschman. I haven’t surveyed the rest of the BA staff yet, but he’s a no-brainer there to me with a consensus in the industry that he’s a tier above the rest of the class.

Cal (Baltimore):

The Orioles aren’t going to over-think this Adley Reutschman pick and blow it…are they? It seems like an O’s thing to do. Also, would you rank Adley higher than Joey Bart from last year?

Ben Badler: More on Adley… yes, I think the Orioles go with Rutschman at 1-1. I’d take him above Bart and I think he’s a top 10-15 prospect in baseball the moment he signs.

Pete Rose (Cincy!):

Should Reds fans be nervous that Hunter Greene turns into a bust? Please tell me he doesn’t lose his arm-strength after his surgery!

Ben Badler: I don’t know what his stuff will look like post-surgery, but I am the low man on Greene relative to the rest of our analysts. I don’t feel comfortable projecting him as a frontline starter, and I think there’s a lot riding on one pitch for him and hoping the rest of the arsenal develops, in addition to the durability risk.

Alan (Nashville):

Jazz Chisholm has struck out in nearly 40% of his plate appearances but still has a reasonable .312 OBP and when he does hit the ball he crushes it (half his hits are HRS and he has 13 XBHs). Do you think Jazz has enough tools to become an all-star caliber player even with a 30% K-rate?

Ben Badler: The tools are exciting, he’s a power/speed threat with flashy actions at shortstop… but the strikeouts are up to 38 percent now, with a lot of swing and miss on hittable pitches in the zone. In his defense, he didn’t spend much time in High-A last year and probably could be back there instead of in Double-A, but the contact issues are a big red flag for me.

Mike (Walnut Creek CA):

Who is the next Luis Urias type prospect — great bat to ball skills, great eye?

Ben Badler: Brayan Rocchio, Tucupita Marcano are two who jump to mind.

Shawn (Dallas):

If Mize continues at or near this torrid pace when do you see him up to the majors?

Ben Badler: Early 2020.

Ben Badler: Thanks for all the questions today. I appreciate you all supporting what we do ????