Baseball America Prospects Chat

Ben Badler: Fun trade deadline! We’ve got a new BA podcast up right now breaking it all down if you want to give it a download. Now let’s get started.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): How much will what 2016 draftees do this year since being drafted affect their ranking by BA vs what BA saw in them when forecasting their skills to rank them for the draft?
Ben Badler: It varies from player to player. For the most part, a player’s raw tools aren’t going to change from June to August, but if we’re able to get 100-200 at-bats of new data—both performance data and information from scouts—with wood bats against professional competition, that’s valuable info to move the needle on a player. That’s especially true for high school players, who scouts generally aren’t able to see against good competition during the spring, but that’s also a big part of why we were so high on Kyle Schwarber after his draft year, for one example.

fred (long island, ny): Coming up the say day as Bregman may have overshadowed his debut a bit, but Dahl has been impressive in his first week in the bigs. Was he in the conversation for minor league POY honors prior to getting called up?
Ben Badler: Dahl, Bregman and Benintendi are all still in the Minor League POY conversation. A lot of good candidates, but there hasn’t been anyone who’s run away with it yet this year.

Joe (Springfield, MO): Cardinals have grabbed several higher-profile Cuban players; are there any other rumors of further Cuban signings by the Cardinals? Or other signings from other places in general?
Ben Badler: I heard Cardinals GM John Mozeliak went in to see Cuban OF Yadiel Hernandez and Cuban 3B/RF Yanio Perez recently.

Jimbob (Arkham Asylum): Hey Ben, do you think Willie Calhoun stays at second base? Will his power make him an all-star contender someday?
Ben Badler: If he stays there, he can be one. Calhoun has one of my favorite swings in the minors and it’s above-average raw power to go with a sound hitting approach. But his defense is bad. I do think he can work his way into a playable, below-average defender at second base, but right now he’s giving back too many runs in the field.

Jerry (New York): With all the busts in recent memory and with Frazier going 0-4 3Ks and NYers being so impatient, is it time to worry? How certain are you of the farm?
Ben Badler: If you get worried about every player who has one bad game, you’re going to have a heart attack.

Bryce (Texas): If you run the Atlanta FO, when are you calling up Swanson? When do you expect him to come up?
Ben Badler: I’d start him in Triple-A next year, then bring him up in the middle of the season assuming he’s performing well there.

Zack (Detroit): After a slow start to the season, Mike Gerber has really turned it on the last few months. Even after a promotion to AA he still continues to hit. I know he got some love in the AFL last year. What do you see him projecting as down the line? Any potential for an everyday regular?
Ben Badler: Yes. He got caught up selling out for power and left himself vulnerable to more swing and miss early in the season, but he’s been finding a better balance of contact and power lately.

Mark (NY): How good is Blake Rutherford? Is he exceeding expectations that teams had for him?
Ben Badler: I’m a fan. Big credit to our draft writers, who pegged him well. He’s come as advertised.

Nathan (Madison, WI): How impressive is the Brewers farm system now? Potentially 9 top 100 prospects with Isan Diaz by making many mid season top 100 lists
Ben Badler: I love what the Brewers have done since David Stearns took over. A lot of smart trades and good under-the-radar pickups for the major league club as well. Their farm system has quickly become one of the best in the game.

Dan C (Wiling): Shouldn't the Reds of gone after Rosario instead of Herrera? Thanks!
Ben Badler: Well, sure, but the Mets would have to consent to that, and there’s no way they would have let Rosario go in that deal.

Grant Holmes (Oakland): Scouting reports across the internet project me anywhere from an elite closer to a potential ace. Is my ceiling really that high?
Ben Badler: Good prospect. Not a future ace.

Stan (Baton Rouge): Why are the Padres being so stingy with Renfroe and Margot? Who will we see up first, and when?!?
Ben Badler: Saving service time in a year where they’re not going to the playoffs. Margot is on the 40-man roster, so you should see him as a September callup.

William (Pensacola, FL): How many games would you like to see a player in before you would worry about the energy level of a player ? When scouts say they would like to see Player X pick up his energy level, what are they really saying ?
Ben Badler: It depends on the player. It can be a question of a player’s effort/hustle, or it could just be the player’s on-field demeanor. Sometimes players who play calm and under control get mislabeled as low-energy guys.

Ben Badler: I also tend to look at effort level or makeup differently than most. If a young player doesn’t work hard, that can be untapped potential. Work ethic isn’t static throughout a person’s life. But it’s not something I put much emphasis on in an evaluation, aside from understanding why a player might be undervalued.

Josh (Nc): When can we expect the Arozarena deal to be announced by the Cardinals? Think we will see him start at high-a?
Ben Badler: It took them a couple weeks to announce the Jonatan Machado deal, so Arozarena’s announcement could follow a similar schedule. If I were him I wouldn’t play in the States at all the rest of the season—you keep more money in taxes that way—but next year he should be ready for High-A, maybe Double-A if they want to push him.

Bucky (Texas): What's Leody Taveras's realistic ceiling? Everyone seems to like him, but I haven't seen many comps or projections for what his future might look like.
Ben Badler: He’s 17. Hard to put a ceiling on a kid who is that young. But the talent level is exciting. Quick-twitch athlete with the speed and arm strength to play center field. Switch-hitter with a clean, fluid swing, good approach for his age and the physical projection to grow into at least average power. He’s a long ways away but there’s a reason we ranked him so high on our July 2 list last year and vaulted him into the Rangers’ Top 10 before he ever played a game in pro ball. He’s a good one.

Matt (Toronto): Do you think Richard Urena has the ability to be a full time major league shortstop? Seems to keep getting better year by year.
Ben Badler: I do, and I think when we re-rank the Top 100 after the season, there’s a good chance he jumps into that mix. Doesn’t have the explosive athleticism of a Jorge Mateo or the overall upside of an Amed Rosario, but he’s a very steady, fundamentally sound player who will stick at the position and give you quality at-bats. Not a future star but a chance to grow into an average or better everyday player.

Ron (Seattle): The Padres just signed another Cuban pitcher in Ronald Bolanos. Is he a starter or reliever down the road?
Ben Badler: Too soon to say, but the attributes are there for him to be a starter. Because of his background, he’s behind in terms of his pitching experience and needs to round out his arsenal beyond the fastball and the slider, so there is some reliever risk, but the Padres got a good talent for that price.

Donald (Atlanta): Is a farm system's overall rating based on how many potential stars are in the system, or is depth more important?
Ben Badler: They both matter, the elite, top 25 prospects in baseball (especially position prospects) have historically proven to be by far the most valuable players between their combination of high upside and relatively lower risk. You can have a good farm system without those types of talents, but premium players drive a premium farm system.

Kevin (Indianapolis): Knowing the Tigers didn't make a deadline move, in part because of the return of J.D. Martinez and Jordan Zimmerman. Do you see either Joe Jimenez or Mike Gerber getting the call-up this season to enhance the Tigers playoff chances?
Ben Badler: Probably not Gerber, but Jimenez could absolutely be a weapon out of the bullpen for them down the stretch.

Jason (NJ): Can you tell me a little more about Dermis Garcia? Does he have a chance to be a top 10 Yankee prospect by the end of this year?
Ben Badler: No. Their farm system is too good for him to be there. He has massive raw power and he is showing it in games more than I would have expected him to do, but there’s still a lot of holes in that swing that he’s going to have to tighten up against better pitching.

Sam (Tokyo): Padres keep spending big bucks in the International market. Are they getting good bang for their buck?
Ben Badler: I think so. Any time you have a team blowing out their pool like the Padres or Braves did this year or like we saw from the Yankees and Cubs in previous years, you’re going to have certain players you can point to and think they got overpaid, but that’s the nature of international scouting. And in a year where you’re going to go over your pool anyway and have a giant spending budget from your owner, you don’t want to miss on a guy you like over a few hundred thousand dollars. They brought in a lot of players who might not be household names yet nationally but are going to play a big role in revamping their farm system.

Tyler (San Diego): Any updates on Vladamir Gutierrez? Now that the July 2 deadline has passed, what can he be waiting on before he signs? Are the Padres still in the mix?
Ben Badler: For his sake, I hope he signs soon. He’s been waiting since last year. Right now you’re seeing a difficult market for Cuban players who are under the pools. Ten teams can’t give him more than $300K (including typical big spenders like the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, etc.), then most teams have already spent the majority of their bonus pool money and aren’t going to exceed their pool. Even the teams that are over their pools—Padres, Braves, Cardinals, Astros, etc.—have internal budgets that they have to stay within. That’s part of why you’re seeing good players like Arozarena and Bolanos get paid less than guys who came out previously like a Roberto Baldoquin, Yoan Lopez or Omar Estevez, even though they’re better those guys.

Rhett (NC): Go ahead and promote Ozzie Albies to MLB before Swanson or wait to bring them up together?
Ben Badler: Each player should be promoted on his individual merits and team needs. No reason they need to stay together on their way up.

JP Crawford (Allentown): I am not going to be promoted this year right? I know I had a hot few weeks but .260 doesn't warrant burning service time when the Phis can do a deep dive of their 40-man in September and determine who is expendable.
Ben Badler: Agreed. I’m a huge Crawford fan, but I would keep him in Triple-A the rest of the year.

Casey (W): Any concerns about Bregman's struggles at the plate
Ben Badler: No. It’s been eight games. Eight bad games, but the swing, plate discipline and hitting approach are all still there for him to be a star.

Javier Guerra (the K-zone): Will my glove merit a shot in the bigs at some point or will my strikeout rate hold me back. Come on, I play for the Padres, I should be in the bigs right now right?
Ben Badler: There’s hope that Guerra can return to the form he showed in 2015, but this season has just been a disaster for him. I was lower on him than most coming into the season, but I didn’t think he would be this bad. He needs to repeat the level.

Philop (San Diego): Jankowski looks like a 70-80 defender to me, move Margot to a corner? I know he and Jankowski aren't typical guys you play in corner, but both seem to have defense/base running to make up for lost value of one not in CF
Ben Badler: I’d prioritize putting Margot in center field, once he’s ready. They’re both excellent defenders in center field, but Margot has star potential with a chance to have an above-average bat and an above-average glove at a premium position. Jankowski has been suitable overall this year because of his defense, but his bat has more question marks going forward as an everyday guy, so I’d prioritize giving the playing time to the player who has a chance to be a bigger part of the team’s future.

Ben Badler: I’ve got to run now, but thank you for all the questions. Enjoy the rest of the day.