Baseball America Prospect Chat

Ben Badler: Lots happening in the baseball world right now, so let’s get started.

Ryan (MD): Why does Victor Robles get hit by so many pitches? Does he toe the black?
Ben Badler: He stands right on top of the plate and doesn’t bail out when a pitch is coming toward him. The Nationals have tried to get him to wear more protective gear, but he doesn’t want to do it, which is understandable when you’re a teenager who’s had nothing but success up to this point without any major setbacks.

Juan peguero (Dom rep): Who is bestter luis garcia or yassel antuna ? And why???
Ben Badler: Garcia. I’m not sure there’s anything Antuna does better than Garcia.

Tom (Atlanta): Kevin Maitan or Mickey Moniak?
Ben Badler: Moniak

Grrrr (Marilyn): will Jesse Winker lack of power keep him from Reds lineup long term ?
Ben Badler: The raw power is there, but it’s not showing up as game power. That might keep him in Triple-A longer, but long-term I’m still high on Winker’s offensive impact.

ross (portland): Thanks you for the international coverage, this stuff is fascinating. based on the Cuban player list, Victor Mesa Jr. sounds like an extremely exciting talent. when and where could he sign and what is his upside?
Ben Badler: He is exciting, he’s just had some trouble staying healthy, but he’s also still in Cuba (and his father his manager and the Cuban national team manager), so he’s not signing any time soon.

Nick (LA): Any updates on Dodgers signings? Also, why did the MLB cartel choose to job the Dodgers (and a few others) for abusing this system after letting the Yanks, Sox and Cubs do the exact same thing over the past few years?
Ben Badler: Nothing new yet today, and nothing new on any Cuban players becoming free agents, aside from a couple of NPs getting cleared. I do think players should have MLB handle their free agency requests in a reasonable timetable, but the teams that have gone over their bonus pools are not abusing the system in any way. The CBA allows teams to exceed their bonus pools.

Jay (PA): Any insight into who the Phillies will sign on July 2nd?
Ben Badler: Yes. These ones: https://www.baseballamerica.com/international/who-the-phillies-are-targeting-with-mlbs-top-international-bonus-pool/

Kismet Kid (Chicago): Is Ronald Acuna the next Victor Robles?
Ben Badler: No. I’ve been talking up Acuna for a while, but Robles’ tools are more explosive.

Sean (Michigan): Ben, Al Avila was quoted recently as desiring the opportunity to bust his international pool as a condition of taking the GM position. Have you seen any evidence of this happening in 2016 or 2017?
Ben Badler: Not this year, unless they change course and decide to go over to sign a Cuban player or two. Their strategy this year will look similar to previous years, spreading the money around to players in the mid six-figure range and under.

Pat (Key West): Franklin Perez of Houston, is he a potential breakout guy this summer? Stuff seems impressive from the little I've read. With HOU's recent success of developing young pitching prospects, is he next in line?
Ben Badler: Yes. Put him on our DSL/VSL Top 20 prospects list from last year (which I guess will now just be a DSL only list going forward) and he’s throwing a little bit harder now with the same swing-and-miss curveball and filling the strike zone.

Jose (Washington, DC): How bad is Willie Calhoun's defense? Does he have a chance to stick at 2nd? If not, is the bat good enough to play elsewhere?
Ben Badler: Still very much below average, but John Manuel made a great point in his story recently about how much better players can get defensively once they enter pro ball and all the reasons behind it. And I think that’s especially true at positions like second and third base, where we have seen guys like Arenado, Moustakas and Cano go from players with defensive question marks to above-average and even Gold Glove defenders. I’m not saying Calhoun is going to make that kind of defensive transformation, but I think there’s hope that he can turn himself into at least a playable defender at second base. Which would tremendous, because I love his swing and everything about how he hits.

Kevin (Bristol): What's the outlook for Jose Albertos? Seems like a potentially exciting arm to add to the Cubs farm system. 17 years old, hitting 95, flashing a plus curve. Is he a name to watch?
Ben Badler: Looks like a great signing by the Cubs. Someone I had heard about before July 2 last year but should have dug into more. The reports from Bill Mitchell out of extended spring training on him have been great. Feel for pitching and good stuff that keeps ticking up since he signed.

Dan (Augusta, ME): How projectable is Roniel Raudes?
Ben Badler: I don’t know that there’s a ton of physical projection, but his feel for pitching for his age is outstanding and his curveball is a legitimate out pitch. The fastball is light, but if he can squeeze a little extra out of that, which I think is reasonable given his youth, he could be a back-end starter.

Deywane (Memphis): Are the Reds only in on one big (A Rod) Intl Free Agent?
Ben Badler: Heard them on a couple guys under the $200K range, but Alfredo Rodriguez is the main one.

Brian (Philly): Philosophically do you like the Phillies approach from last year (one marquee signing) or this year where they spread the money around.
Ben Badler: I like spreading the money around. Part of that is based on the risk specific to Jhailyn Ortiz, but there’s a lot of talent and value with the players in that $300K-$1MM range.

Skip (Missouri): What do you think the chances are of Shohei Otani being posted this year? or in the next couple of years?
Ben Badler: I don’t see the motivation for the Fighters would post him after this season. I wouldn’t expect to see him in MLB for a while.

TJ (Miami): Now that the Fish moved on from Nova,who do they sign in the IFA? Any names popping up?
Ben Badler: Nobody major yet. But they’re now one of the few teams that have money available in their pool, so I could see them being a player for a Cuban prospect who has a reasonable bonus request.

Gil (Seattle): Bigger breakout: Harrison Bader or Tyler O'Neill?
Ben Badler: I love what O’Neill has done this year. He has gigantic raw power, but when I saw him last year, his pitch recognition and plate discipline frightened me. He’s taken a big step forward in those areas this season. We’re a little more than two months into the season and he has nearly as many walks as he did all last year while making the jump to better pitching in Double-A, and he’s striking out less.

Liam (Boston, MA): What position do you see Moncada eventually playing in the majors, also could Groome/Espinoza be the best young R/L pitching duo in the minors if he signs?
Ben Badler: Second or third, depending on what best fits the roster once he’s ready. With his athleticism, speed and arm strength (and how high I expect his offensive production to be), he really could play any position other than shortstop or catcher.

Stu (Nashville): Moniak over Maitan? Surprised by that. I guess you're not buying the Miguel Cabrera/Chipper Jones comps for Maitan...
Ben Badler: I’m a huge fan of Maitan, but Moniak is a better pure hitter right now, he’s been tested against better competition, has a higher probability to stay at a premium position and plays it well. Maitan has more power potential and could leapfrog him within the next couple of years.

Frank (Cincinnati): Can Cody Reed(Cin) be a #2 type starter?
Ben Badler: Yes. Two 70 pitches in his fastball and slider. He’s going to be a bright spot for that team in the second half.

Matt (Denver): I've heard some outlandish sounding commentary on just how big the Padres are planning to go this July 2nd, making it sound like the Padres are about to exceed their bonus pool many times over. What type of magnitude should we realistically expect?
Ben Badler: I could see them spending close to $30 million in bonuses (not including overage taxes) just for players under the bonus pools, including Cuban players. And that could end up being a conservative estimate by the time the signing period ends in June 2017.

Matt H (Texas): Has Kyle Tucker's success at Quad Cities separated him from Daz Cameron as far as rankings go?
Ben Badler: Yes, between Tucker’s success and Cameron’s swing-and-miss troubles. I love Tucker’s hitting ability and offensive approach.

Eric (NYC): I keep reading about how pitching prospects are notoriously risky in terms of predicting success. Do you agree? How can you tell who has the best chance to make good on talent?
Ben Badler: They are, and the data bears that out historically. Most of the elevated risk is in injury or attrition rather than a pure evaluation. Pitchers have their careers derailed by arm injuries or simply see their velocity decline quickly, something position players don’t deal with on a comparable level. In some ways it can be easier, especially at the lower levels or on the amateur side, to evaluate a pitcher, because you can evaluate his mechanics, arm action, stuff and command independent of the competition he’s facing, whereas with a hitter, the quality of the pitching he’s facing becomes more of a factor.

John (Rutland, MA): Are the Nats on any Cubans? I am particularly interested in Johan Oviedo. Thanks.
Ben Badler: They’re going over their bonus pool, but I haven’t heard them linked to Cuban players much at all, certainly less than some of the other teams going over like the Cardinals, Padres or Astros, or the teams already over like the Dodgers and Cubs.

Ryan (MD): The DSL has been underway for just a bit. Is it too early for any updates on last year's J2 guys? Anyone looking like a different player, or affirming lofty bonuses?
Ben Badler: Our International Reviews came out a few months ago, which has a lot of updates since July 2 on which players have changed, who’s grown another inch or two, added velocity or performed well in offseason programs. Andres Gimenez (Mets) and Leody Taveras (Rangers) were our No. 2 and 3 international prospects last year, and they have looked as advertised early. And Enmanuel Valdez (Astos) is a second baseman who stood out for his bat before he signed but is showing more game power than expected.

Travis (Lakewood): Is Arquimedes Gamboa a guy to keep a close eye on in the Phillies system? How does he compare to say a Wilkerman Garcia in your opinion?
Ben Badler: Our reports on Gamboa last summer weren’t very encouraging. Wilkerman’s a much better combination of tools and skills.

Oddball Herrera (At a computer): For a guy supposedly being prepped for 3B Bregman is sure playing a lot of SS...is this a signal that he's not coming as soon as we night think, or that Correa is moving to 3B?
Ben Badler: I still think Correa is a franchise cornerstone, but he’s not having a great year in the field. Bregman’s a smart enough player to pick up third base quickly if the Astros do need to move him there, but I’d keep Bregman at shortstop for now if I were them.

Frank (PA): Has the level of talent changed much in the DSL with the VSL ending? Or are things still pretty much the same as past years?
Ben Badler: Hasn’t affected the overall talent level in the DSL, just added more teams and players. What has changed is you’re seeing more teams, with some exceptions like the Braves and Phillies, sending all their top July 2 signings to the DSL to start their career there. The DSL season starts before the GCL and AZL get going, so teams figure why not get those guys some ABs in the DSL, then bring them over to a US complex league once that starts if they’re ready.

JJ (Hawaii): Who has the higher offensive upside between Ona or Arozarena? Would both have been mid-1st round picks in this year's draft?
Ben Badler: Similar upside, but very different shapes to the way they get to that production. Ona is more classic right field profile with the ability to hit and hit for power, while Arozarena doesn’t have the same thump but gives you a better OBP and speed at a premium position. I think their both first-round talents based on what they showed me while they were in Cuba, but the teams with money to spend haven’t seemed as high on Arozarena from watching him in Mexico, so I’m curious where his market ends up.

ben (stl): why does everyone say the cardinals are going big on July 2 when they are only rumored for two relevant prospects?
Ben Badler: They’re going over their bonus pool. Not to the extent of the Padres or Braves, but they’re getting more than two players.

Flava Flav (LA): Do you think MLB is intentionally delaying clearing a number of IFAs to prevent teams like the Dodgers from snatching them up this period?
Ben Badler: I don’t know why they’re doing it or why it’s taking so long. The optics certainly don’t look good, but mostly it just sucks for the players who left Cuba and have to wait around without any answers or transparency to the process. And other than in certain circumstances, the union doesn’t seem to care either.

Drew (Nc): Delvin Perez comp Lindor? How high of a ceiling for Perez do you see?
Ben Badler: Don’t see the similarities at all. Lindor has always been an athletic, agile fielder with a great clock for the game, a contact-oriented swing, great pitch recognition and occasional power. Perez is a good defender, but he’s much more physical than Lindor and his offensive game is more about explosive bat speed and power potential with a less discerning eye to recognize pitches.

Danny (Brooklyn, NY): With the uncertainty of what amateur free agency will look like in the next CBA, what are teams doing with kids for the 2017 signing period? For instance, can the Yankees or Red Sox offer deals to players not knowing whether there will be an international draft or what the spending limits will be?
Ben Badler: That’s what teams are already doing now. There’s like 10 or so players already with deals for July 2, 2017, and after a big 2017 showcase in Venezuela this week, I imagine that’s only going to increase. So yeah, we have teams reaching deals with players before we even know what the parameters of the international signing system will look like in the new CBA that comes out in December. What could possibly go wrong!?

HEAA (Cleveland): What are your thoughts on Jameson Tallion's first two MLB starts.. long term #2 starter?
Ben Badler: He’s been phenomenal. For someone to miss two years, including one for Tommy John surgery, the Pirates just had to be hoping a.) that his stuff is close to what it was before and b.) that his command wasn’t too rusty from all the time off. Not only is his stuff as good as ever, but he’s throwing more strikes and commanding his fastball better than he did before. That’s awesome to see. Durability is a fair question mark given the time off, but I do think he can be a No. 2, front-end starter.

Thomas (Grand Rapids): Christin Stewart's numbers are mighty impressive, especially after a rough start to the season. Can he make enough contact at higher levels to let the power/patience combo play? Are the KOs a function of running deep counts or shaky bat-to-ball skills?
Ben Badler: A little of both, but the swing-and-miss hasn’t been as bad as some people feared coming out of college. We’re not looking at a .300 hitter, but he can be at least an average hitter who amplifies his OBP because of his patience with the power to hit 20-25 home runs, maybe even more some years.

Ben (MIamisburg, OH): What level do you think Alfredo Rodriguez starts at after a lengthy period away from organized baseball since he defected from Cuba?
Ben Badler: Based on present ability, I’d put him in Low-A. But any assignment for a Cuban player has to take into consideration other factors to help him get acclimated to a new country and the organization.

Brian (Denver): The Rockies have to be excited about a potential rotation of Gray, Pint, Hoffman and Freeland, but would they have been better off selecting someone like Lewis that would benefit from playing in Coors Field or Ray who could help lock down their large outfield?
Ben Badler: I think it’s a mistake for teams to concern themselves too much with the configuration of their home park, even the ones with more extreme parks. You’re better off just taking the best player available, or under the current system, leveraging your bonus pool to get the most talent you can, regardless of where you play home games.

Ben Badler: Thanks for all the questions. For those asking for full scouting reports on all the Cuban players who are out there, our Top 20 rankings from last year has all of that information on the top players like the Gurriels, Arozarena, Ona, Yadiel, La O, etc., and we have other updated reports on them and other players throughout our site for BA subscribers. Some of these players I’ve seen take 100-200 plate appearances in the year or so before they left Cuba, so there’s a lot of info in there for BA subscribers. And if you’re already subscribing—thanks!!! We love the support. And we’ll keep you posted if any more signings happen before the deadline.