Baseball America Kyle Glaser Subscriber Chat (6/1/23)

Kyle Glaser hosted a subscriber chat and discussed Kristian Robinson‘s return to pro ball, Endy Rodriguez‘s slow start and more. You can read the transcript below.

Patrick (Austin):

 Kristian Robinson just got assigned to low A ball following his suspension. What was the word on him from scouts during his time in extended spring training? Are realistic expectations that he plays well enough to get promoted to high A this year?

Kyle Glaser: I saw Kristian Robinson in Lake Elsinore last night. He looks great physically, is taking good at-bats, is hitting the ball hard and is moving well in right field. All the tools remain intact. He looks very, very good and like he should be bumped to High-A in short order.

Fred (Illinois):

 Is Oswald Peraza just on a heater in AAA, or is it looking like he may be more of an impact guy than he seemed before this year?

Kyle Glaser: Peraza will likely always be a glove-first guy, but he’s certainly getting stronger and hitting for more impact than in previous years. It’s a promising trend to see that gives him a chance to raise his offensive ceiling. We’ll see how well he maintains it.

Richie (Niagara):

 I’ve been reading some recent hype from various baseball pundits about Denzel Clarke..but before I formulate an opinion…I wanted to get your take. BA is the best at analyzing prospects, imho!

Kyle Glaser: Clarke is an unbelievable athlete. He can scale walls with the best of them, he’s a powerful runner and he’s strong as heck. The biggest question with Clarke has been whether or not he’ll hit. He’s always been rather raw in that regard, especially his swing and pitch recognition. He’s striking out too much at Double-A right now, but we’ve seen him make improvements over the course of the year before (final year at Cal State Northridge and last year from the start of the year at Stockton to the end in the AFL, in particular). If he can continue to hone his swing and pitch recognition and cut down on the strikeouts, watch out. That’s a big “if” though.

Miggy (Chicago):

 Is Owen Cassie’s breakout season for real?

Kyle Glaser: Caissie has always had huge power and played above his age. The biggest question was if he could cut down on his strikeouts with his long levers. He still has work to do in that regard, but he’s slowly moving in the right direction. If he can continue to cut that K rate, the answer will be yes.

Bob (MA):

 Do we know enough about how underlying stat cast metrics translate up the ladder to get really excited about lo-A players with ok top line numbers, but good metrics? That seems to be what’s driving some excitement about Roman Anthony.

Kyle Glaser: Think of it more as baseline skills like controlling the strike zone, showing athleticism and making quality contact. Anthony was really good last month (.290/.419/.449 in May) and is showing a lot of promising traits. It’s a long season, so we have to see how he maintains it, but the progress is certainly intriguing.

Jon (MO):

 Should we have expected Gavin Cross being such a TTO hitter? Was his hit tool overrated or can he get back on track as a more balanced hitter? I’m curious if there’s data that might explain his season. Too much chase? Trouble with velocity or pro breaking balls?

Kyle Glaser: Cross’ performance has been disappointing and unexpected, no two ways about it. He was better in May, but still not where it needs to be. He was expected to be a 50-55 grade hitter across the board. He hasn’t been close to that this year. Let’s see if he can figure it out, but so far, his pure hitting ability has not been close to what was projected or expected.

Jack (PA):

 Endy Rodriguez has had a disappointing year given how great he was in the second half last year. He didn’t have great EV data so is this just more who he is as a hitter?

Kyle Glaser: There’s a big adjustment to Triple-A for all young hitters. Rodriguez is facing guys significantly older than him with big league experience. It’s been a slow start, but let’s see what adjustments he makes before burying him. He’s probably not the 25 HR, 90 RBI hitter we saw last year, but he’s not as bad as he’s been this year, either. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Jon (MA):

 When will you publish the June updates of the Top 100 and team lists? I’m curious if Nick Yorke will get back on the 100 and jump over a disappointing Rafaela.

Kyle Glaser: Updated Top 100 comes out next week, updated Top 30s the week after.

Matt (Used to be stuck in Ohio escaped to NC):

 Rayne Doncon? Never heard of him. What you got on the youngster? What kind of ceiling does he have?

Kyle Glaser: Rayne Doncon has been in the Prospect Handbook each of the last two years, so I encourage you to pick up a copy. I’ve seen a good bit of him and will be seeing him again tonight out in Rancho Cucamonga. He’s a strong kid who hits the ball VERY hard, but he’s a very aggressive hitter and has to improve his breaking ball recognition. He plays a pretty good third base and can slide over to second as needed, too. You can dream on him being a power-hitting third baseman, but he’s got a lot of work to do with his approach and pitch recognition to get there.

Nick (San Carlos, CA):

 What are Ronan Kopp’s chances of sticking as a starter, and what are some of the things he’ll have to do if he’s going to be able to?

Kyle Glaser: Very, very, very slim. Kopp is a big, 6-7 lefthander with wicked stuff, but he’s not a very good athlete, he has a really hard time repeating his release point with his delivery and long limbs and he really struggles to control the run game. Think of him more as a big lefty who can come in and blow guys away in short stints (2-3 innings). He’s great in that kind of role. Anything more, you start pushing it.

Brandon (Bakersfield, CA):

 Whats the latest on Joey Volchko?? Seems to have maintained the helium he started the year with through the season. Was at a game he threw and saw he was up to 98..

Kyle Glaser: Volchko is firmly in the conversation to go in the top 50 picks. He fits right in the comp round. Whether he’s picked that high is going to depend on whether he wants to sign instead of going to Stanford, but on talent, he’s right there.

JK (Bay Area):

 Of the Giants prospects performing well at higher levels, are you most impressed with Bailey, Schmitt or Matos?

Kyle Glaser: I’m probably most impressed with Patrick Bailey, simply because he was the one I had the most doubts about. We knew Casey Schmitt could really play defense and had power he could get to and we knew Luis Matos had loads of ability but just needed to hone his approach. Bailey never really showed any sign he could hit in pro ball prior to this year, so to see what he’s done offensively in the highest levels of the minors and in the majors has been hugely impressive.

Tim (SLC):

 At the time of the minor league reorganization, there was talks of doing interleague play between the IL and the PCL. Is that dead? I thought that was a fun idea.

Kyle Glaser: I have not heard anything about that recently. I can check.

Kyle (Stl):

 Hello Kyle. Your thoughts on the following players if they hit their ceilings? Star, All Star, or Avg MLB player. Junior Caminero, Evan Carter, Jonathan Clase, Anthony Gutierrez, Spencer Jones, Yanquiel Fernandez, Yasser Mercedes, Cole Young. I know there’s still a large range of outcomes here. Thanks

Kyle Glaser: We’re talking about mostly low-level players with extreme variance here, so I’m going to stay away from any declarative statements. I will say Even Carter’s all-around skillset gives him a chance to be a very, very good MLB player. Junior Caminero is the other guy on here you can say probably has All-Star potential, but again, he’s a young player with a long way to go.

Oliver (Boston):

 I always enjoy these chats, so thanks again. How much do you suspect the ABS system challenges certain pitchers when they make the jump to AAA? Shane Drohan, for one, seemed to have an ability to limit walks, but that has yet to translate at the highest minor league level. Does the success of his repertoire hinge on getting calls in the shadow zone and/or less disciplined opposition? Have you noticed any other pitchers that have been granted fewer called strikes after the call to AAA?

Kyle Glaser: Speaking generally, walks have increased in games where full ABS is being used at Triple-A this year, particularly with MLB shrinking the width of the strike zone from 19 inches to 17 inches. The increased walk rate is something to watch moving forward, and another data point in favor of the challenge system over ABS.

Mike (CA):

 Hi, Kyle. Thanks for the chat. The Prospect Report released today put a spotlight on some of the teenagers in Low-A that are interesting. I know A-ball quality has changed after the minor league realignment, but I’m having trouble judging performance based off age and current offensive production vs future offensive profile. In terms of future offensive profile, what order do you have Rada, Doncon, Jorge Ruiz, and Roman Anthony?

Kyle Glaser: Roman Anthony right now is probably atop the list. Rayne Doncon we talked about a little earlier. Nelson Rada shows really good instincts and strike-zone discipline at the plate and has a feel for contact, but he’s just not strong enough right now to do much. He needs another year (at least) of strength gains before we can really judge him. Ruiz is TBD, I haven’t had a chance to fully dive into him yet.

Dave (Akron, OH):

 Hi Kyle! Going into the season, the Guardians farm system received a lot of praise, especially for its depth. With a number of players “graduating” and (too) many others getting injured or seemingly struggling, would you still consider the farm system to be strong? Any players you consider to have taken a leap forward so far? Thanks Kyle!

Kyle Glaser: I’ve generally been lower on the Guardians position player prospects (Valera, Naylor, Martinez, etc.) than most others, so I’m not entirely shocked to see the struggles they’ve had in the upper levels. That said, this system has a lot of quality pitchers as we’ve seen already with Bibee and Allen (with Gavin Williams right behind them). It’s a good system with some good players who can help, but I wouldn’t call it a great one.

Steve (Long island):

 Who would u rather have on your team going foward K ruiz or MJ Melendez? I noticed MJ isn’t even playing the catcher position at this point? I’m in a 14 tm dynasty league Thanks

Kyle Glaser: Keibert Ruiz and it’s not close. He’s hit into some bad luck this year, but he’s progressing as a hitter, is staying behind the plate and is the Nats everyday catcher for the foreseeable future after signing his extension. He’s just a straight up better player than MJ Melendez by a considerable margin.

Alex (NYC):

 With Baty, Alvarez and Vientos in the Majors. How does the Mets system look? Who stands out other than Mauricio?

Kyle Glaser: Not great, but that’s for the right reasons – they graduated their top guys to the majors to help the big league club win, which is the point of all this.

ziefried (hawaii):

 what’s wrong with Bleis and Mead? they have so much potential but not really living up to what they should be doing…any comments on their performances so far this season?

Kyle Glaser: Miguel Bleis had serious breaking ball concerns even last year, and those have been exposed in full-season ball. This is another example of why it’s REALLY important not to go crazy about guys in the complex leagues, especially aggressive hitters. They tend to get undone very quickly by better pitching. Mead’s slow start was surprising, but they happen. He’s been out since getting by a pitch on his wrist at the end of April, so that took away his chance to get back on track in May.

Ziegfried (Hawaii):

 Andres Chaparro has been hitting well at AAA after an 0-29 start…any chance he gets called up?

Kyle Glaser: Chaparro has big power. If injuries hit and the Yankees feel like they could use his power bat off the bench (or in a limited starting role), we could see it happen.

Ben (Seattle):

 Ivan Melendez looks like his starting to hit for power…little old for his level. how do you feel about his potential?

Kyle Glaser: Melendez was getting under balls a lot early. He’s been much better recently. His potential is generally seen as an average everyday first baseman. I would say that remains the case.

Kyle Glaser: All right everyone, that will do it for today. Thanks for coming out. See you next week.