Ask BA: Is Diamondbacks' Reed For Real?

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Q: There aren’t many believers in Cody Reed since he uses deception, but he’s been so dominant, he must have potential right?

Madeline Jolie
@MaxyJPrime

BA: I followed up with Madeline to confirm that we are talking about the Diamondbacks’ lefthander Cody Reed. I’d say Cody A. Reed to separate him from the Reds’ lefthander Cody Reed, but Cincinnati’s lefty is also Cody A. Reed.

The Diamondbacks’ Reed has been dominating this year. He is 5-2, 1.82 with an exceptional 55-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 innings with low Class A Kane County.

There’s nothing not to like about Reed’s season. He started the year by striking out 31 batters and walking no one in his first three starts. His last two starts have both been seven-inning stints where he allowed one run, no walks and struck out eight.

But as was noted in the question, Reed is succeeding on the basis of an excellent changeup and some funk in his delivery. Reed has a high-80s/low-90s fastball that plays up because of a deceptive delivery and excellent location, a plus changeup and a below-average breaking ball.

That assortment can work in the majors, but the minors are filled with pitchers who dominated low Class A with a great changeup but found that such an approach doesn’t work nearly as well at higher levels of competition.

A good changeup is something that the average Class A hitter just can’t handle. Let’s just look at recent Midwest League ERA champs that fit that profile. You have Tigers lefthander Jon Connolly (16-3, 1.41, 38 BB, 104 Ks in 166 IP in 2003), Angels righthander Sean O’Sullivan (10-7, 2.22, 40 BB, 125 Ks in 158 IP in 2007), Tigers lefty Jon Kibler (14-5, 1.75, 32 BB, 126 Ks in 154 IP in 2008), A’s southpaw Ian Krol (9-4, 2.65, 19 BB, 91 Ks in 119 IP in 2010), Royals righthander Greg Billo (9-5, 1.93, 25 BB, 119 Ks in 135 IP in 2011) and Blue Jays lefty Justin Nicolino (10-4, 2.46, 21 BB, 119 Ks in 124 IP in 2012).

Nicolino had the best fastball of this group (at the time his was 90-92 mph touching 94). Not coincidentally he also has had the best big league career of this group. O’Sullivan and Krol have also reached the big leagues, but overall this is a cautionary tale of how command and mastery of secondary pitches can make up for a fringe-average fastball in low Class A, but the same approach often doesn’t translate up the ladder.

A dominant stint in the Midwest League is never a bad thing, but if you’re doing it with location and a very good changeup, you’re going to have to add some additional velocity or a quality breaking ball as you get promoted.