Ask BA: Does Mercer's Schedule Hurt Kyle Lewis?

Have a question for Ask BA? Tweet it to J.J. (@jjcoop36) or email it to askba@baseballamerica.com.

Q: How much do you discount production in draft evaluation for Kyle Lewis when his competition is suspect? Is it similar to high school scouting?

Ben Fullenkamp
Miamisburg, Ohio

BA:

There’s no doubt that scouts will have a tougher time getting a read on Lewis (ranked eighth on our latest Top 100 Draft prospects list) hitting against Southern Conference pitchers than they will scouting Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel batting against the rest of the Southeastern Conference. But it’s not the same as scouting a high school hitter.

Lewis is controlling what he can control. He is fifth in Division I in slugging percentage (.843), fourth in home runs per game (his 12 averages out to 0.41 home runs per game). He’s also seventh in D-I in on-base percentage (.557) and fifth in OPS (1.398).

Statistically he’s having one of the best seasons in Division I. He’s also shown significant improvement from last year’s excellent sophomore season as he’s shown better plate discipline. This year he’s walked 33 times (22 percent of plate appearances) while striking out only 17 times (12 percent of plate appearances). He’s hitting for average (.426), driving the ball and doing everything possible to live up to his billing as a potential first-round pick.

But as your question notes, Lewis is doing it against a less-taxing schedule than that of your average SEC, Pac-12 or ACC team. Mercer’s midweek games against Georgia Tech this month will be the first games it has played against a team in the College Top 25 this year.

Unless Mercer reaches the NCAA regionals, those will also be the last games Lewis will have against a Top 25 team this year. Currently the Southern Conference is projected as a one-bid league. Mercer has so far faced two teams we project to make the Field of 64.

But we have seen in recent years that hitters from smaller schools can still go quite high in the draft. In the past decade, there are 10 college hitters from one or two-bid conferences who have gone in the top 20 picks of the draft. That list includes some busts (Kolbrin Vitek, for example), but it also includes A.J. Pollock, Evan Longoria and C.J. Cron.

If Lewis had spent last summer at home, the lack of at-bats against top arms would cause scouts more concerns, but his strong summer in the Cape Cod League will allay many of those concerns. Lewis hit .300/.344/.500 with seven home runs in the Cape, having no problems squaring up many of the better pitching prospects in college baseball.

So Lewis’ combination of impressive tools, excellent production in the top summer league in the nation and an excellent start to 2016 should allay the concerns about his playing in a smaller conference.

SMALL SCHOOLS, BIG PICKS
A look at players selected in the top 20 picks of the past decade of drafts who came from one or two-bid conferences
Player	Year	Pick	School	Field of 64?	Conf. NCAA Bids
Max Pentecost	2014	10	Kennesaw State	Yes	1
Casey Gillaspie	2014	20	Wichita State	No	2
Hunter Dozier	2013	8	Stephen F. Austin	No	2
D.J. Peterson	2013	12	New Mexico	Yes	2
C.J. Cron	2011	17	Utah	No	2
Christian Colon	2010	4	Cal State Fullerton	Yes	2
Michael Choice	2010	10	Texas-Arlington	No	1
Kolbrin Vitek	2010	20	Ball State	No	1
A.J. Pollock	2009	17	Notre Dame	No	1
Evan Longoria	2006	3	Long Beach State	No	2