Arizona Fall League Hitters With Intriguing Statcast Data

Contact Standouts

Player	AFL Team	Org	Level	PA	AVG	Contact Rate
Caleb Durbin	Mesa	NYY	AA	291	.304	88.0%
Jakob Marsee	Peoria	SD	AA	568	.274	84.2%
Chase DeLauter	Peoria	CLE	AA	242	.355	83.4%
Jacob Hurtubise	Surprise	CIN	AAA	435	.330	82.5%
James Triantos	Mesa	CHC	AA	363	.287	82.4%
JT Schwartz	Glendale	NYM	AA	296	.305	82.1%
Jadiel Sanchez	Scottsdale	LAA	AA	443	.297	81.5%
Liam Hicks	Surprise	TEX	AA	372	.275	81.4%
Eric Brown Jr.	Surprise	MIL	AA	310	.255	81.1%
Graham Pauley	Peoria	SD	AA	551	.308	80.9%

It’s easy to spot the correlation between contact rate and batting average among the top contact hitters in the league. Half the group hit above .300 and all but one (Eric Brown Jr.) batted above .274 this year. Yankees prospect Caleb Durbin stands out even among the best contact hitters with a gap of nearly four percentage points over Jakob Marsee. There’s a sizable gap in plate appearances between the two, and the latter gets the nod for his better overall profile. Guardians 2022 first-round pick Chase DeLauter is another standout name after his impressive professional debut in 2023. James Triantos has shown himself to be a skiller hitter, but has yet to unlock game power. Keep an eye on Padres prospect Graham Pauley – he has one of the best all-around data-based profiles in the minors and balances plus contact skills with advanced approach and average power. 

90th Percentile Exit Velocity Leaders

Player	AFL Team	Org	Level	PA	Isolated Slugging	90%EV
Damon Keith	Glendale	LAD	A+	439	.144	108.5
Zach Dezenzo	Mesa	HOU	AA	410	.226	108.0
Paul McIntosh	Peoria	MIA	AAA	332	.176	107.5
Alex Canario	Mesa	CHC	AAA	233	.215	107.0
Kala’i Rosario	Glendale	MIN	A+	530	.216	107.0
Ivan Melendez	Salt River	ARI	AA	426	.306	107.0
Oliver Dunn	Scottsdale	PHI	AA	505	.235	107.0
Wes Clarke	Surprise	MIL	AA	503	.256	106.5
Kevin Alcantara	Mesa	CHC	AA	435	.182	106.5
Abimelec Ortiz	Surprise	TEX	A+	454	.325	106.5

Ninetieth percentile exit velocity looks at the average of the top 10% of batted balls put in play. It’s an excellent way to get a good handle on a hitter’s power upside. This is a one dimensional metric, of course, simply looking at the heights a batter can reach on his best struck contact. It does not account for launch angles, bat-to-ball skills or swing decisions. So it does not measure the quality of the hitter, however there’s a strong correlation between 90th percentile EV and slugging. Abimelec Ortiz and Ivan Melendez are great examples within this group. They rank first and third respectively in isolated slugging among qualified hitters at a full season level. Overall, this group likely possesses the highest power upside even if not all hitters have fully actualized their power in games. 

Chase Rate Leaders

Player	AFL Team	Org	Level	PA	BB%	Chase Rate
Jacob Hurtubise	Surprise	CIN	AAA	435	16.9%	15.2%
Harry Ford	Peoria	SEA	A+	563	18.3%	15.4%
Jakob Marsee	Peoria	SD	AA	568	17.3%	16.1%
Colson Montgomery	Glendale	CWS	AA	294	19.0%	16.8%
Oliver Dunn	Scottsdale	PHI	AA	505	16.2%	17.3%
David McCabe	Salt River	ATL	A+	524	15.3%	17.7%
Christian Cairo	Peoria	CLE	A+	229	17.0%	17.8%
Nathan Martorella	Peoria	SD	AA	582	14.1%	18.00%
Liam Hicks	Surprise	TEX	AA	372	15.9%	18.8%
Lazaro Armenteros	Mesa	OAK	AA	462	14.9%	18.8%

The direct link between low chase rates and high walk rates is fairly easy to spot. All of these players discern balls and strikes at an elite rate while rarely, if ever, expanding the zone. There’s often a level of passivity at play as well, which can be a detriment to overall production. Colson Montgomery is the best combination of contact, power, approach and overall skills in this group. The entire group possesses a skill that affords opportunities at the highest levels. Padres prospect Jakob Marsee shows up on a list for the second time, cementing his place as one of the most advanced hitters in the league. 

XwOBAcon Leaders

Player	AFL Team	Org	Level	PA	xwOBAcon
Ivan Melendez	Salt River	ARI	AA	426	.520
Wes Clarke	Surprise	MIL	AA	503	.482
Abimelec Ortiz	Surprise	TEX	A+	454	.463
Zach Dezenzo	Mesa	HOU	AA	410	.460
Jack Brannigan	Salt River	PIT	A+	374	.454
Andrew Cossetti	Glendale	MIN	A+	392	.437
Jace Jung	Salt River	DET	AA	575	.436
Carson Williams	Peoria	TB	AAA	503	.435
Colson Montgomery	Glendale	CWS	AA	294	.433
Kala’i Rosario	Glendale	MIN	A+	530	.431

If you’re not familiar with XwOBAcon it’s the expected weighted on-base percentage on contact. In other words, it looks at each individual batted ball event and puts it into a bucket of production (think wOBA) based on the exit velocity and launch angle. It’s valuable because it measures the quality of a player’s contact and isolates it without accounting for bat-to-ball skills. We see many of the same names that were among the 90th percentile exit velocity leaders. Three of the top position prospects in the circuit – Colson Montgomery, Carson Williams and Jace Jung – are among this group. Other names to monitor include Kala’i Rosario, Jack Brannigan and Wes Clarke. 

Sweet Spot% Leaders

Player	AFL Team	Org	Level	PA	SweetSpot%
Colson Montgomery	Glendale	CWS	AA	294	45.8%
Zach Dezenzo	Mesa	HOU	AA	410	41.4%
Wes Clarke	Surprise	MIL	AA	503	40.4%
Liam Hicks	Surprise	TEX	AA	372	39.7%
Andrew Cossetti	Glendale	MIN	A+	392	39.3%
Abimelec Ortiz	Surprise	TEX	A+	454	38.5%
Reggie Crawford	Scottsdale	SF	A+	19	38.5%
Jack Brannigan	Salt River	PIT	A+	374	38.3%
Ben Cowles	Mesa	NYY	A+	444	37.8%
Sonny DiChiara	Scottsdale	LAA	AA	330	37.4%

Sweet spot percentage is a metric that measures the percentage of batted ball events that are hit at a launch angle between eight degrees and 32 degrees, which is considered the ideal range of batted ball angles. This measure correlates directly to a player’s barrel control and consistency within their launch angle, often referred to as launch angle tightness. We can see many of the leaders in xwOBAcon are listed here, as well as many of the same names that appeared on both the 90th percentile leaderboard and the xwOBAcon leaderboard. While this list looks exclusive to power hitters, it’s an overall skillful group.