Are Carlos Rodon’s Pitch Counts A Concern?

Twice in three weeks last month, N.C. State lefthander Carlos Rodon made starts that seemed like relics from an earlier time.

In an era where major league pitchers rarely journey beyond 110 pitches and almost never top 120 pitches in an outing, Rodon used 134 pitches in a dominating 7 ? innings against Duke. Just two starts later, he threw 132 pitches in nine innings against Georgia Tech.

This is actually not all that unusual for Rodon. He’s thrown more than 120 five times this season and he’s topped 100 in 12 of his 14 starts this year. He topped 130 pitches four times last year as well. Overall, he’s averaging 113 pitches per start, which is more than any major league pitcher averaged per outing last year.

There’s been some outrage that the N.C. State coaching staff put their desire to win ahead of the long-term health of their ace, who will be one of the top picks in the June draft.

Well, actually, it’s not clear at all.

In the years since Rany Jazayerli’s first piece on Pitcher Abuse Points for Baseball Prospectus in 1998, a general consensus has been formed at the major league level: go far beyond 100 pitches and you better have a reliever ready. Go past 130 and you’re generally prepping a pitcher for a trip to the disabled list.

From 1998 to 1999, there were at least 100 games in every season but one where a pitcher threw more than 130 pitches. Last year, there were four.

Whether it’s by intent or accident, 100 pitches has become the new normalized baseline. Last year, the median pitchers per start for the 82 ERA qualifiers was 99 pitchers per start.

So Rodon throwing 113 pitchers per start obviously raised concerns. His two 130+ pitch starts is half as many as big leaguers threw all of last year. And the big leaguers who topped 130 pitches, all are much older, more mature pitchers.

Again, we don’t actually know. The key distinction is that Rodon threw 113 pitches every seven days, because he’s in a college rotation on a seven-day schedule. He throws more pitches per start, but less pitches overall than a pitcher on a tighter pitch count throwing on a five-day schedule.

And when it comes to the differences between five and seven-day rotations, pitchers themselves say there is a major difference.

“You have a brand new arm every seven days (on a seven-day schedule),” said former White Sox and UCLA pitcher Jim Parque who would advocate pro teams going to a six-man rotation to reduce injuries. “ You can take one full day off. It rejuvenates you. Pitching every seven days is a country club.”

Brewers righthander Jimmy Nelson was the Friday starter at Alabama as a junior. He said it took him a while to get used to the heavier workload of a five-day schedule.

“It’s day and night different. We talk about it all the time. Those two days extra are huge. You’ll see a lot of guys in pro ball that lose 3-4 mph because you have those two less days. And you’re playing twice as many games. (On a seven-day schedule), you’d feel good for your next start,” Nelson said.

When the Rockies went to a four-man rotation a few years ago, they decided to cut their starting pitchers back to 75-80 pitches per start, on the logic that because they had a day less to recover, their pitchers shouldn’t throw as many pitches. No one really knows if a similar extrapolation can be made the other way–more days of rest, more pitches per start.

Taken to an illogical extreme, would a pitcher who throws once every 15 days but throws 200 pitches in that outing more at risk of injury than a pitcher who throws 30 pitches an outing but pitches every other day? The industry just doesn’t know.

“I think it’s like comparing apples and oranges. In pro ball, you have higher frequency and lower volume,” said Cubs pitching coordinator Derrick Johnson, who previously worked as Vanderbilt’s pitching coach.“It’s hard to compare a college guy to a pro guy because the volume and frequency of the two pitchers are different.”

Dr. Stan Conte, the Dodgers’ senior director of medical services, has been studying injuries for two decades. He hasn’t come across any study that spells out the difference in risks or pitch limits between pitching with six days of rest and pitching with four.

Rodon’s junior year workload is high, but it’s not out of line with what we’ve seen from first round picks in recent years. Looking at the 29 first-round college pitchers from 2010-2013, 22 of them went 120 pitchers or more at least twice in their junior seasons and 10 topped 130 pitches at least once that year. Because records of pitch counts for every outing for college pitchers is unavailable, that number may be underrepresenting outings over 120 or 130 pitches.

Rodon’s numbers do stand out when compared to his closest contemporaries in this year’s draft however. 

Go back just five years, and many potential first-round picks carried similar workloads to what Rodon is throwing now. Chris Sale, Taylor Jungmann, Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman all shouldered similar usage patterns and have stayed relatively healthy. Thanks to a 157-pitch outing, Matt Harvey’s pitch count workload significantly exceeded Rodon’s this year. As did Trevor Bauer, who is in a class by himself.

Bauer handled a workload that no pro pitcher has seen this century–he averaged 129 pitches a start his junior year, with 11 outings of 120+ pitches, eight where he topped 130 pitches and one where he threw 140. So far, he’s handled that workload with no problems–he’s yet to miss a start as a pro.

There are a few cautionary tales. Hayden Simpson topped 130 pitches twice and threw 144 pitches in one outing. His stuff backed up as a pro and he was soon released. Alex Wimmers threw 120+ pitches in four out of five starts, including a 134-pitch outing. He’s had Tommy John surgery and has struggled as a pro. Danny Hultzen worked a relatively restrained workload, never throwing more than 130 pitches and topping 120 pitches three times, but he’s seen his pro career derailed by shoulder problems.

But among this year’s potential first rounders, few are working over 120 pitches in any starts. Kyle Freeland has yet to throw 120 pitches in any outing. East Carolina’s Jeff Hoffman didn’t in any start before he went down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John. Erick Fedde, another Tommy John victim this year, topped 120 only once, with a 121-pitch outing. Brandon Finnegan, Sean Newcomb, Luke Weaver and Aaron Nola have also stayed below 120 in all outings for which we have pitch counts. Tyler Beede has topped 120 pitches once, while generally staying just below 100 pitches in most of his starts.

So by the standards of college first rounders of this decade, Rodon’s workload is not particularly unusual. By the standards of 2014’s first rounders, it stands alone, at least for now. Rodon’s season is likely over. Many of the other healthy first-round pitchers will be pitching in conference tournaments this week and the NCAA tournament in upcoming weeks, where there will be incentives for them to pitch deeper into games or come back on short rest.
As is true with any debate about pitcher health, it’s worth noting that while pitch counts are a tool, they are just one tool. Some scouts say they are worried about Rodon’s workload. Others say they are OK with Rodon’s workload, but worry more about the large numbers of sliders he throws in every game. N.C. State’s decision to bring Rodon back out after a 90-minute rain delay in his final regular season home start also raised concerns, especially when he showed reduced velocity in his following outing.

Like college baseball in the U.S., Japanese pitchers pitch on a seven-day schedule–in their case it’s a six-man rotation with one off day a week. And like Rodon, Japanese pitchers generally throw more pitches per outing than any U.S. starter. Thanks to data compiled by NPBTracker.com, we know that Yu Darvish’s median start in Japan from 2009 to 2011 was 123 pitches. Masahiro Tanaka’s median pitchers per start from 2009 to 2012 was 116 pitches. Hiashi Iwakuma’s median was 110. C.J. Wilson was the only U.S. pitcher whose median pitchers per start last year topped 110 (110.6).

As a 21-year-old, Tanaka topped 120 pitches 10 different times in 2009. His longest outing was 142 pitches against Orix, which came a week after he threw 137 pitches against Rakuten. Later in the season, he topped 120 pitches five times in six starts, but again, those starts came on longer rest.

Did those high pitch count games put Tanaka at an increased risk of injury? Or did the longer rest between starts and the lower total pitch count that entails make up for the higher pitch counts? We simply don’t know. The little bit of data we have on Japanese elbow injuries seems to indicate that they suffer few elbow injuries than we are in the States, as a recent study by Eno Sarris found, but the tendency of Japanese teams to hide injury information makes it very hard to know if all elbow injuries are being reported.

In researching college baseball, getting accurate pitch counts for every start for even the top draftees is nearly impossible to assemble. For Japan, compiling the information on Tommy John and shoulder surgeries is just as daunting.

In the future, we may know the answer as to whether a 130-pitch start on six days rest is justifiable or foolhardy. But for now, we just don’t know.