Analyzing 10 Standout Complex League Prospects So Far In 2024
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With more than a month of Arizona and Florida Complex League play behind us, standout players will begin to see promotions to full-season levels. Over the last few seasons, how the top domestic complex league performers have fared in their full-season debuts can be best described as a mixed bag. Often lurking behind great in-game performances are concerning trends regarding swing and miss, chase and underlying power.
Listed below are 10 domestic complex league standouts in order of wRC+ as of June 11. We’ll look into contact rates, chase rates and exit velocity data for each player. While defensive and running abilities impact a players overall future value grade, metrics such as these still give a clearer picture as to the authenticity of each player’s performance.
Brian Sanchez, OF, Yankees (190 wRC+)
The Yankees acquired Sanchez in November 2023 as part of a trade for Jake Bauers. Across 20 games with the Yankees’ Florida Complex League team, Sanchez is hitting .369/.474/.646 and has the highest wRC+ of any player age 19 or younger in domestic complex league play. Under the hood, Sanchez looks like a three-true-outcomes type hitter. Though his contact grades below-average with a 22.7% zone-miss rate, Sanchez doesn’t chase very often with a (22.9%) and has a strong quality of contact.
Sanchez has an above-average xwOBAcon at .384, and his 90th percentile exit velocity (103.8 mph) is well above-average for a 19-year-old. Sanchez’s ability to elevate on hard-hit contact stands out, too, as over 30% of his hard-hit batted ball events fell in the optimal launch angle range of 10-30 degrees. That’s well above to 14% to 16% median range across the minors. In all, Sanchez looks like a bat-first prospect with legitimate power and on-base skills, but concerning contact abilities.
Franyerber Montilla, SS, Tigers (175 wRC+)
One of the early favorites of RoboScout, Montilla has been a standout for the Tigers’ FCL squad. In 22 games, Montilla is hitting .346/.481/.556 with just as many walks as strikeouts and underlying data very much backs his performance. Montilla shows strong plate skills with a 13.4% in-zone whiff rate and a low chase rate of 16.7%. On the face of it, those numbers showcase excellent bat-to-ball and pitch recognition skills. Like with Sanchez, Montilla’s 90th percentile EV (102.7 mph) is above-average for his age, and he shows the ability to consistently elevate the ball with a 58% fly+line drive rate. Montilla shows a well-rounded profile at the plate and is one of the more exciting players in complex play.
Abrahan Ramirez, 2B, Yankees (174 wRC+)
The Yankees are known for rolling out deep, talented complex league lineups, and Ramirez, who signed in January 2022 out of Venezuela, is their latest standout. The 19-year-old has excellent plate skills, as evidenced by an in-zone whiff rate of 16.1%. His 18.4% chase rate also falls into plus territory. While his 100 mph EV is about average for his age and level, Ramirez’s .399 xwOBAcon displays quality of contact and an ability to consistently hit his best drives at good angles.
Robert Calaz, OF, Rockies (169 wRC+)
One of the most highly-touted players to come stateside in 2024, the power-hitting Calaz was a popular breakout choice among Baseball America staff this offseason. Calaz is hitting .341/.442/.648 so far, but his underlying data tells a different story. The 18-year-old has shown below-average bat-to-ball skills with a 32.1% overall whiff rate and 24% in-zone whiff rate. His swing decisions are about average with a 28.5% chase rate. Where Calaz excels, however, is in quality of contact. His .437 xwOBAcon is elite, and his 109.9 mph EV is among the best in the minors. Calaz is a power hitter through and through and has the type of quality of contact that can push him to the majors one day. In the meantime, he needs to refine his plate skills to get more out of his truly outlier power.
Aroon Escobar, 2B, Phillies (169 wRC+)
Signed out of Venezuela two years ago, Escobar is off to a standout start in 2024 after two uneven seasons in the Dominican Summer League. Slashing .338/.495/.481, he has more than twice as many walks as strikeouts. As one would expect with that kind BB/K rate, Escobar’s plate skills are pristine. The 19-year-old righthanded hitter has an elite in-zone miss rate of 15.8% and a chase rate of only 17.6%. Escobar’s underlying power numbers are also promising, as his 104.4 mph EV is well above age and league average. He has good quality of contact and gets the ball in the air, but struggles to elevate his hardest hit drives. Escobar has the makings of an average-or-better hitter with power projection that will come with further swing optimization.
Alexander Albertus, 3B, Dodgers (165 wRC+)
Each spring, when our own Josh Norris ventures to Arizona for backfield play, he returns with a few standouts from Dodgers camp. Last year Albertus was one of those names. So far this season, he’s hitting .353/.500/.494 with more walks than strikeouts. Albertus’ contact and chase rates are excellent, and his in-zone whiff rate is elite, missing just 12.2% of pitches he swings at in-zone. At 10.8%, his chase rate is extremely low, and he also shows potential for plus power at peak (103.7 mph EV). While Albertus shows the ability to get the ball in the air consistently, he’ll need to improve elevating his hardest hit contact, as he shows below-average angles on his hard-hit batted ball events.
Brailer Guerrero, OF, Rays (163 wRC+)
One of the top players in the 2023 international class, Guerrero made his stateside debut this spring in the FCL. Guerrero is hitting .346/.459/.519 over 22 complex level games and arguably has the best combination of plate skills, power and batted ball angles of any player listed in this article. Guerrero’s contact quality is a particular standout, as his 105.4 mph EV is a sign of plus raw power. He’s not all power however, as Guerrero consistently makes contact and keeps a tidy zone. His in-zone whiff rate of 15.1% is plus and stands out among young power hitters in the minors. Guerrero is still learning to optimize his best contact, but his batted ball angles are close to where you’d want them at this age.
Julio Henriquez, 1B, Marlins (161 wRC+)
Henriquez signed in 2022 out of the Dominican Republic and, following an underwhelming stateside debut in 2023, the 19-year-old is now tearing the cover off the ball in 2024. Slashing .333/.506/.413, Henriquez’s production is backed up by his plate skills, particularly his discerning eye at the plate. His in-zone contact numbers are elite, shown by an 11.1% in-zone miss rate and a low chase rate of 22.3%. Henriquez contact quality, however, leaves something to be desired. His 90th percentile EV of 101.2 is just average for power hitters at his level and age and a poor .301 xwOBAcon showcases just how below-average his contact quality is, particularly for a player who’s already seeing most of his time defensively at first base.
Richard Ramirez, C, Pirates (160 wRC+)
After a strong second season in the DSL in 2023, Ramirez made his U.S. debut by taking the FCL by storm. The 18-year-old is hitting .324/.448/.521 across 23 games while making 15 starts at catcher. Looking deeper, we see Ramirez’s production is heavily held up by his elite quality of contact, especially a .460 xwOBAcon that is one of the best among all players age 20 or younger in the minors. His exit velocity data lines up with his xwOBAcon thanks to a 104.9 mph 90th percentile EV and a 53% hard-hit rate. Where Ramirez falls short is in his bat-to-ball skills and approach. His in-zone contact rate is well below-average at 25%, and his overall whiff rate of 35.3% is concerning. Ramirez has exciting power and good batted ball angels, but overall lack of contact is an issue as he progresses to full-season levels.
Eduardo Quintero, OF, Dodgers (152 wRC+)
It’s reached a point where almost every year you can expect to find at least one future Top 100 prospect on the Dodgers’ Arizona Complex League roster. While there are several worthy candidates in 2024, Quintero might be the most impressive. Over his first 26 games, the 18-year-old is hitting .337/.459/.506. His contact skills, in particular, are impressive, as he only misses on 12.3% of pitches he swings at in the zone and rarely expands with a 16.6% chase rate. Combine that with a .381 xwOBAcon, 106.6 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and centerfield profile, and you have one of the most exciting players not in full-season play as of yet. Of all the players on this list, Quintero has the look of a true analytical superstar.
