Amidst Uncertainty, Executives Prepare For Unprecedented Trade Deadline

With the trade deadline just 10 days away, “uncertainty” is the operative word in major league front offices right now.

Executives and general managers are gearing up for a trade deadline unlike any they’ve experienced in the coming days. The shortened 60-game season, the expanded postseason field, the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic and the limits on who is allowed to be traded have all upended the usual trade deadline dynamics.

As the deadline approaches, officials from both winning and losing clubs are expressing doubt any major moves will be made, while simultaneously acknowledging any predictions should be taken lightly in this uncharted landscape.

“I want to say (there will be trades), but I really just can’t just from everything that we’re going through and talking to counterparts on other teams,” one American League pro scouting director said. “It’s just there’s so much uncertainty.”

“The full truth,” one National League general manager said, “is I have no idea how to handicap any of this.”

The trade deadline was moved to Aug. 31 this year as part of the shortened season. Only players who are part of a team’s 60-man player pool are eligible to be traded, although players not on the 60-man roster can be traded as players to be named later.

The uncertainty begins in the major leagues and stretches all the way down to the players in the lowest levels of the minors.

Among the chief concerns in the majors is, with players able to opt out of the season, teams run the risk of acquiring a player who subsequently opts out following a trade. In response to an inquiry from Baseball America, a Major League Baseball spokesperson said the league has not put any mechanism in place for a trade to be reversed if a traded player opts out.

On top of that, the unique nature of a 60-game season, combined with the expansion of the postseason field to 16 teams, has made it difficult to separate out the buyers and sellers.

With 10 days to go until the trade deadline, 22 teams are within two games of a playoff spot.

“There are only going to be limited number of teams that are actually trading guys with basically everybody making the playoffs,” another NL executive said. “It’s going to be personal for each team what you want to give up to be the No. 8 playoff seed and have a three-game series, which is a crapshoot.”

“Let’s say you’re the Marlins,” a longtime American League executive added. “Do you, because you’ve been down for a couple years, new ownership, (Derek) Jeter, the whole nine yards, make a run to try to get in the playoffs? And is that a positive sign of moving forward for you and what comes with it? If it’s a small piece and you don’t have to give up a whole lot? You can come up with a lot of angles with all these teams coming from different spots with expanded playoffs.”

Further, whether a team is a “buyer” or a “seller” has become much more fluid in a shortened season.

“Normally we would start discussing trade deadlines the week before and not a whole lot changes in that week to 10 days,” the NL GM said. “This year, if a team goes and wins five games in a row, that could be a massive swing towards them being in it or not being in it. If you lose five in a row in those seven games, it could be seriously dropping out of contention. The volatility of it is going to be fascinating.”

The most limiting factor of all, according to officials throughout baseball, is the restraints on which prospects are eligible to be traded and the lack of up-to-date information on those prospects.

Players in a 60-man player pool but not on the major league roster—primarily prospects—are spending the season at alternate training sites, where there aren’t enough players to play full intrasquad scrimmages, statistics are not publicly available (and in some cases aren’t being kept at all) and opposing scouts are not allowed in to evaluate players for themselves.

As ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel first reported last week, MLB has created a data sharing network which teams can opt in to and receive player data and video from other alternate site camps. Only about 20 of the 30 teams have opted in so far, according to ESPN, an estimate front office officials confirmed was accurate to BA.

But beyond the fact that not all teams have opted in, executives who have examined the data coming out of alternate site camps say it’s not substantive enough to make a trade based on it.

“It’s directionally helpful, but it’s not ‘Oh my god this guy made a swing change’ or ‘Look at this guy’s breaking ball, how much it changed’ and we’re going to go out and acquire him,” the NL executive said. “You’re going to be heavily reliant on 2019 looks, video, data and maybe if this player was in spring training. That might be your most recent look to feel ok about what you’re getting.”

“We probably have to go off of 2019 information, which is very scary,” the AL pro scouting director added. “You’re not going to probably make a big transaction that’s based off that type of information. So much has changed between summer of 2019 to now. Judging on the limited data we have from the alternate sites, I really can’t see it happening.”

Teams are allowed to trade video from alternate site camps with one another, and front office officials said they expect that to happen informally in addition to through the data sharing network.

That said, those same officials voiced skepticism it would make a difference in their calculus.

“It’s a little more challenging because you don’t have fans and that pressure that comes with that,” the AL executive said. “You don’t play outside competition, you don’t have umpires, all those things factor in to some degree.

“You’re taking limited information in an unconventional setting and trying to figure out what that player is compared to what he was last year.”

One potential workaround is for a team to acquire a player to be named later and defer the decision on who they want until they can scout prospects in person, but even that comes with uncertainty. Under current rules, players to be named later have to be named within six months of a trade. This year, that means any additional scouting would have to be done during a fall or winter league for prospects, which may or may not happen depending on the spread of the virus.

Further, commissioner Rob Manfred suspended minor league contracts following the national emergency declaration in March, and there is no guarantee minor league contracts will be unfrozen by the six-month deadline.

An MLB spokesperson said the league has not had any discussions about amending that deadline in the event minor league contracts remain suspended six months from now. In any case, front office officials are skeptical it will even get to the point.

“I’m not sure any of this is going to matter, because I don’t know if there is going to be that many transactions anyway,” another AL pro scouting director said. “Even if you could have made trades for other players (outside the 60-man pool), are you really going to go trade for an Arizona League player that you had a good report on in 2019 when he hasn’t played all year? I don’t know.”

So, will the hesitation about trading for prospects in the current environment lead to a wave of major leaguer-for-major leaguer trades? With only 27 days left in the season following the trade deadline, plus concerns about the pandemic, officials expressed skepticism many of those would occur, either.

“I think there’s enough teams that realize, ‘I don’t know how much this one guy can impact these 30 games,’ ” the NL GM said. “He could be everything or he could be a total flop. So it’s going to have to be somebody that is very highly coveted and I just don’t know how many of those guys are going to be available.”

“And then health-wise, it’s going to be a concern for anybody that’s bringing a player in. You’re probably factoring in some kind of private transportation, whether that’s close enough to have a car and test the driver or if it has to be some sort of private plane. The risk of bringing anybody new into the mix, it’s certainly non-zero. And how we’re seeing it play out could affect weeks of a season if something were to happen. That’s going to bake into it, too.”

In the end, the overwhelming consensus is that going to such lengths, and taking on those risks, to bring in anybody less than a star may not be worth it.

“I just don’t know if you’re going to see the marginal upgrades,” the NL executive said. “The ‘Oh, we’re going to get a righthanded bat off the bench.’ I’m not sure that’s what teams are going to be eyeing right now and giving up any type of prospect capital for that.”

Undoubtedly, there will be trades made in spite of all the roadblocks. Teams at the top of the standings are always looking to add major league talent, especially with another round of postseason play this year, and some teams are far enough out of contention—even with the expanded postseason—to be looking toward the future.

But given all the uncertainty, teams are expecting this to be a much quieter deadline. There were 58 trades made the week of the deadline last year, including 33 on deadline day alone. The year before, 38 trades were made the week of the deadline.

The universal expectation is those numbers will be significantly lower this year. At the same time, with how volatile every aspect of this season is, no one really knows for sure.

“I wouldn’t think the trades we’ll see would be where anybody is going to give up anything significant,” the AL executive. “Now, that’s just my guess. We’ll see.”