AL West Draft Picks With The Most Intriguing Statcast Pitch Data
Image credit: Duke RHP Charlie Beilenson (Photo by Brian Westerholt/Four Seam Images)
Each week, I dip into public Statcast data to provide insight on up-and-coming minor league talent. Now that the draft is complete, I will shift gears and dig into some data on recent draftees.
It is important to note that the dataset is incomplete. Pitchers may or may not translate their pitch shapes directly from college baseball to the majors due to differences in the baseballs, as well as potential differences in data quality and measurement. If a pitcher isn’t included here, it’s because there wasn’t any Statcast data.
We’ll also be looking at things primarily through a “stuff” lens. Namely, those pitch shapes that have the potential to work in the major leagues. This is inspired by the countless examples of unheralded college pitchers who take huge leaps once they hit a major league development system.
More Intriguing Statcast Pitch Data
Houston Astros
Parker Smith, RHP, 4th Round
Smith is the only Astros draftee for whom we have public data, and I think he’s quite an interesting arm. His main pitch was a sinker, which currently gets a lot of arm side movement and should be a good weapon against righthanded batters. What makes him interesting is that he might also be a high-vert four-seam fastball guy, as the two-pitch sample has him at 18.5 inches of IVB/flight (0.4 seconds). His slider got great results, but it’s somewhere between a true gyro and a sweeper, so there’s likely going to be some pitch shape optimization that will happen there. He rounds it out with a changeup that showed 19 inches of fade at 87 MPH. It will be interesting to see how the Astros manage his arsenal going forward.
Los Angeles Angels
Chris Cortez, RHP, 2nd Round
Cortez’ calling card is velocity, as he averages 96.5 mph with the fastball. But it’s not going to be a plus pitch given the shape, which only gets 12 inches of ride. He has a lower arm slot, so he may be a good candidate to switch to a sinker. His slider gets about 10-11 inches of sweep at 84-85 mph and generated a lot of whiffs. It’s not a true sweeper, so he may need some instruction on shape optimization. The changeup showed solid fade and good depth. Given the platoon-ish nature of the sweeper and changeup, he’ll need to develop a gyro slider or curveball to round out the arsenal.
Ryan Prager, LHP, 3rd Round
Prager looks like he will not sign with the Angels, unfortunately, as I think he’s an exciting prospect. While the fastball only sits at 91 mph, it gets a ton of ride at 21 inches from a three-quarters slot, which is more than three inches above the MLB average for that slot (note that the college baseball will get more ride, so this may be closer to one inch with the minor league baseball). Even at that velocity, It’s an excellent pitch, and any velocity gains would make it plus or better. He pairs it with a hard gyro slider that features about a seven mph velocity gap to the fastball and a tremendous 20 inches of vertical separation from the fastball. If you’ve read my work, you’ll know this is an archetype I adore, and it’s disappointing that the Angels couldn’t sign him. Some profiles will tick up a little with a velocity bump, this one becomes an easy first round talent if he adds 3 mph.
Austin Gordon, RHP, 4th Round
I have 23 pitches of eye-popping data for Austin Gordon, starting with 95-mph fastball with 19 inches of vertical ride, which is 3-4 above expected. He pairs it with a gyro cutter/slider that should be a plus pitch at 86-87 mph. It’s a nice two-pitch mix for what looks like a classic relief profile at present, but we’ll see if the Angels try to add a third pitch and develop him as a starter.
Peyton Olejnik, RHP, 6th Round
Olejnik is a 6-foot-11 righthander that might still be growing, as he was listed at 6-foot-10 a year ago, and our player page has him as 6-foot-9. He only started four games in college, but he got five more starts in the MLB Draft League.
Despite his height, he only gets 6.3 feet of extension. Still, his 15-16 inches of fastball ride will play up based on his arm slot, though that can be hard to pinpoint exactly with players this tall. He’s extremely lean, so there is potential for him to start throwing a lot harder as he fills out and learns how to better connect his mechanics through the kinetic chain. The pitch might be fringe-average at its current 92 mph, but Olejnik is the very definition of projectable.
He also throws a sinker that might be ok as a situational weapon, but he should probably be focusing on the four-seam fastball. His changeup gets great depth and almost 15 inches of fade, making it a promising pitch, while his sweeper slider will need a little more velocity and either go full sweeper or full gyro. The slider has good spin at 2700 rpm. This is an excellent upside pick. Get this kid in a major league weight room, and see what happens.
Bridger Holmes, RHP, 7th Round
Holmes is a side-arming righty that throws sliders and curveballs from a weird angle. He gets an elite 2900 rpm on his slider. Every once in a while, one of these guys makes it to the majors as a specialist.
Fran Oschell, RHP, 12th Round
Oschell is huge dude, standing 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds. He had a much worse season this year compared to 2023, both of which he he pitched as a reliever. In 2023, he was dominant, pitching to a 0.69 ERA with 66 strikeouts in 39 inning. This year, his ERA ballooned to 6.94, with only 22 Ks in 23 innings.
Sadly, that never happened for him, as he was stuck in the bullpen all year. The underlying traits remain the same: A 94-mph fastball with plus ride (19.5 inches IVB/F) and a true gyro slider with very low spin efficiency that could use a couple of ticks of velocity. I love the upside here and hope he gets the shot to start in the minor leagues.
Najer Victor, RHP, 14th Round
If there’s one consistent trend in this draft class, it’s four-seam fastballs with plus ride. Victor is no exception. He averaged 96-97 mph with his fastball from a lower slot, and it profiles as at least an average pitch from a stuff perspective. He throws both a gyro cutter and a gyro slider, with the latter needing more velocity and higher gyro spin.
Oakland Athletics
Gage Jump, LHP, CB-B
Gage is a 6-foot tall lefty with a 93-94 mph fastball that gets about 2 inches more ride than expected with the college baseball. He mostly throws his rising sinker, though I think they’ll favor the four-seamer in pro ball. It’s a solid, if not exciting primary offering, and I’m not sure how much you can project Gage to have a velocity jump. The slider is interesting, getting negative vert, but without standout fastball velocity, it won’t grade out very well. He also mixes in a two-plane curveball at 77 mph. He did fairly well coming back from injury, so perhaps there is more in the tank as he gets further away from surgery.
Sam Stuhr, RHP, 5th Round
Stuhr’s feature pitch is gyro cutter with almost pure estimated gyro spin, which he throws with great velocity at 87 mph. It’s the kind of pitch that I’d be extremely excited about if his fastball had decent shape, which, unfortunately, it does not. It’s a 94-mph “dead-zone” fastball with only 15 inches of ride from a very vertical slot. If they can fix the lack of ride, it should pair extremely well with the gyro cutter.
He mixes in a gyro slurve at 80 mph, but it might just be a slower version of his cutter, as he also throws a gyro slider around three mph slower than his cutter. It’s a solid package, but I’m not overly optimistic about this pick, as fixing fastball ride is one of the more difficult developmental challenges for a pitcher.
Josiah Romeo, RHP, 6th Round
Romeo is a rare high school pitcher for which we Statcast data. In fact, we have two seasons of data on him, which shows promising growth in fastball velocity for the 6-foot-4 hurler from Canada. In 2023, his fastball averaged 88.6 mph with subpar shape. This year, it kept the same mediocre shape but was all the way up to 91.5 mph. The encouraging aspect here is the velocity gains, which he’ll need to keep adding to be a viable prospect.
Likely due to the fastball having poor shape, he switched to a sinker-first approach, which might be a better fit for him. The pitch isn’t great shape-wise, but that should be fixable as he learns to leverage seam-shifted wake effects, which should make the pitch more horizontal and add a bunch of depth.
He pairs it with a true gyro slider featuring very low estimated spin efficiency and ingredients to pair well with the four-seam fastball, should he continue to throw that. He mixes in a changeup without fade or depth that got a few whiffs. I wouldn’t classify Romeo as having huge upside, but he’s interesting if he can continue to add velocity.
According to our Geoff Pontes, the commissioner of the MLB Draft League informed him that they use the Rawlings MiLB ball, so that means we can more comfortably translate MLB Draft League pitch shapes without worrying about differences in the ball.
Kyle Robinson, RHP, 11th Round
Robinson started for Texas Tech this year and has a starter’s frame at 6-foot-6, 210 pounds. This is an upside play for a pitcher that ranked as our No. 101 prospect heading into the draft. As noted in the report, his fastball gets solid ride, but is offset by the very vertical delivery. His present 93 mph velocity has potential to grow as he fills out, but he’s likely maxed out in terms of ride, as he doesn’t have feel for spin. Thought the changeup has worked well for him against lefties, I’m more intrigued by the slider, which has low estimated spin efficiency at 85 mph. He’ll mix in a two-plane curveball to round out his four-pitch arsenal.
Ryan Magdic, LHP, 14th Round
While Magdic’s sinker sits below 90 mph, he gets great 17-inch ride from a very low slot. It actually grades out very well as sinker according to my latest modeling of sinkers, as it maximizes movement. I’m not sure I buy it, but the shape of the pitch is very good, so if he finds some velocity, it might be a good pitch. He also mixed in a slider and changeup, but it all hinges on whether his sinker will play at the next level. I’m very curious to see if it will.
Blake Hammond, RHP, 15th Round
We close out the Athletics list with Hammond, who sports a 90-91 mph fastball with poor shape and a gyro slider that is interesting, if we’re to believe the negative six inches of IVB on the pitch. It’s a tough profile to make work, but a true gyro slider with that kind of vert could be good. It’s mostly classified as a curveball, despite the low spin efficiency.
Seattle Mariners
Hunter Cranton, RHP, 3rd Round
Cranton features a high-spin fastball at 2550 rpm with over 18 inches of induced vertical break from a low release point, giving him well-above average ride on the pitch. The only negative is his below-average extension, which may or may not be fixable. Added extension is correlated with increased vertical ride, so there’s potentially some gains to be had there. It’s a phenomenal starting point for a pitching prospect, with an easy plus grade on the pitch from a stuff perspective. He also has a plus sinker, giving him a good situational weapon against righthanded opponents.
He pairs those pitches with a gyro slider and cutter, each with distinct shapes feel for spin at 2600-2700 rpm. All this in an ideal 6-foot-3, 215-pound frame? This is fantastic clay, and not even the most exciting arm taken by the Mariners.
Charlie Beilenson, RHP, 5th Round
Beilenson has started precisely zero games at the collegiate level, but to my analytical eyes, he looks like a starter with a true five or six-pitch mix. He was dominant this year pitching in two-inning spurts, striking out 92 over 62 innings with only 18 walks. But what makes him intriguing is his arsenal.
I’m going to make a bold prediction here: Beilenson will be given a shot to be a starter and will be a very good one.
Let me take you through why I think that will occur. It all starts with a very analytically-friendly fastball that gets about average or better ride when adjusting for his low arm slot. As with Hunter Cranton, he only gets 5.7 feet of extension on the pitch, so there may be room for optimization here. I find this to be very intriguing as a trend, as it stands in stark contrast to the Yankees, who drafted lots of pitchers with 7 feet or more of release extension. In a vacuum, I’d say this pitch would grade out as average at best, but I think there’s room for small gains that will help it get to plus.
He has an incredible splitter (listed as a changeup) that gets zero inches of vert, which actually means it has downward vertical movement when accounting for drag. He absolutely kills the spin on the pitch, and still gets about 12 inches of fade along with tremendous depth. It will also help the fastball play up a little. I love a good splitter.
He has a hard riding cutter at 87 mph that has a distinct pitch shape but will likely need less ride to be a proper gyro cutter shape. His fourth pitch is a gyro slider with zero inches of vert and seven inches of sweep that also looks to be a small tweak away from being a viable MLB pitch shape. His sinker grades out as nearly average, despite only 92 mph of velocity and will give him a good situational weapon against righthanded batters. Finally, we have a 79-mph curveball with two-plane break. That’s a sizable pitch arsenal if you count the one curveball, with at least five of the offerings having potential to be viable pitches.
I think the Mariners see a lot of little tweaks they can make with this player, which in the aggregate will potentially make him a very valuable arm, and one that I think should be given a chance to start.
Brock Moore, RHP, 7th Round
I absolutely love this pick, and I’m flabbergasted how an arm this good doesn’t get nabbed earlier, given some of the other pitchers I’ve written up that were drafted well before him. I get that he’s only ever been a reliever, but the nine pitches of data I have are glorious.
For data, I have two fastballs, which got 19 inches of IVB from a 5.5-foot release height. That is an astounding 5.4 inches inches above expected given the release characteristics, with the cherry on top being the 99 mph velocity. Those pitches are likely outliers, but if we look at the ones classified as sinkers, we still get plus-three inches of IVB at 99 MPH. That’s an easy plus-plus pitch from a stuff perspective from a guy with a massive 6-foot-6, 230-pound frame. The slider data is potentially even more impressive, with zero inches of vert and 17 inches of sweep at 84 mph. That would be a tremendous sweeper and extremely rare for a guy with this much vert.
Geoff Pontes shared some of the Trackman data on Moore with me, and that is also quite spectacular, showing a changeup with 19 inches of fade, as well as a massive two-plane curveball. Moore is a “Stuff Monster” and an absolutely massive talent to dream on. I can’t wait to see what the Mariners do with this kid.
Christian Little, RHP, 11th Round
How about a 6-foot-4, 235-pound pitcher with a 95-96 mph fastball and 20 inches of vert falling into your laps in the 11th round? Welcome to the Mariners 2024 draft class! For a lot of draft classes, I’m often trying very hard to discern what the team was targeting when they select a player. With the Mariners, however, it’s usually pretty easy to see. Little continues the trend of pitchers with short extension, reinforcing my theory that they feel this is low hanging fruit to fix and get some easy pitch quality gains.
Wyatt Lunsford-Shenkman, RHP, 16th Round
On the surface, this looks like a very poor pick, as Wyatt only averaged 88-89 mph on his pitches. However, he dropped his release point from about 6.4 feet to 5.8 feet and was closer to 91 mph with the higher arm slot. His pitch data in 2023 wasn’t exciting either, but his sinker could perhaps be worked into a viable pitch. Still, compared to the pitchers above, this is not a very exciting pick.
Texas Rangers
David Hagaman, RHP, 4th Round
Hagaman was the Rangers’ first pitcher selected, and he sports a solid arsenal, though my data is from 2023. He has a 92-mph fastball with 18 inches of IVB/flight and over seven feet of extension, which will map to a roughly average pitch with the MiLB ball. The headline pitch is his bullet slider, which has the third-lowest estimated spin efficiency in the the data set. Despite the below-average velocity, his sinker looks like a solid pitch, as well, mostly due to its large total movement profile. The rising sinker is a tricky pitch to master, so he may only use it situationally. He rounds out his arsenal with a changeup that gets 16 inches of fade and decent depth. This is a “safe” profile, and one that will likely need a jump in velocity to be an impact arm.
Anthony Susac, RHP, 8th Round
Susac’s slider is a great pitch thanks to its depth and a high percentage of gyro spin. He pairs it with a potentially fringe-average fastball featuring good velocity at 94.7 mph, but only 15 inches of ride, which is below-average even given his arm slot. This is a profile that might play well in the bullpen, where he can use his slider as the primary weapon.
Dalton Pence, LHP, 11th Round
Pence’s pitch quality improved from 2023 to 2024, gaining almost two full ticks on the fastball, while adding 0.5 inches of ride. I’m not sure there’s a second pitch here based on the data I have, but the fastball is a decent starting point with 19-plus inches of vert at 92-93 mph.
Eric Loomis, RHP, 16th Round
Loomis features a 94-mph sinker from a low 4.7-foot arm slot with 15 inches of arm-side run. It might be a viable pitch if they can tweak the shape to be even more horizontal. He pairs that with a mini-sweeper that isn’t a great present pitch and a four-seam fastball that actually had pretty decent ride given the almost side-arm delivery (albeit in a sample of only one pitch). His arm angle is roughly 75-80 degrees, with 90 degrees being parallel to the ground. There’s some potential here for being a useful bullpen arm with a power sinker to be used in an inning that features multiple righthanded batters.
