AL East 2024 Preview: Predictions, Player Grades & More

Image credit: Adley Rutschman (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)

As part of Baseball America’s season preview, Zach Buchanan asked scouts and executives to weigh in on a number of topics. Industry sources were granted anonymity to speak freely. Quotes are lightly edited for clarity. You can also find Baseball America staffers’ picks and grades for every AL East lineup below.

WHAT SCOUTS AND EXECUTIVES ARE SAYING

BEST OFFSEASON

“The Orioles were able to add big-time starter Corbin Burnes and still keep a wealth of prospects in the system.”

SURPRISE TEAM

“The Orioles and Yankees rightfully have garnered the offseason attention for their splashy acquisitions, but the Rays are still a threat in the AL East with an elite bullpen, endless position player depth and the next wave of star young talent coming in Junior Caminero and Carson Williams.”

MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFSEASON

“I actually think the Red Sox’s current roster—and farm system—are better than they are being given credit for, but that only makes their lack of aggressiveness on the free agent market even more shameful.”

BREAKOUT PITCHER

“Ricky Tiedemann has electric stuff. It’s really polished. I could see him being one of the best lefties in the game pretty quickly”

BASEBALL AMERICA PREDICTIONS

TOP PLAYER: Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are elite hitters. But let’s see them put up a 130 OPS+ while catching 100 games and leading a pitching staff to 100 wins, as Rutschman did in 2023. Few hitters have as pristine plate skills as Rutschman, and if he can push his power output closer to 30 home runs, he becomes an instant MVP contender. Just two catchers have won the award this century: Joe Mauer and Buster Posey. That is the company Rutschman could keep.

TOP PITCHER: Corbin Burnes, RHP, Orioles

With Yankees ace Gerrit Cole slated to miss at least a month with an elbow injury, the best pitcher field in the AL East opens. That’s OK because the division is loaded with high-end starters, including Burnes and Toronto’s Kevin Gausman. Burnes won a Cy Young Award in the National League in 2021 and joined Baltimore in a February trade. He gives the Orioles front-of-the-rotation presence as the club eyes a playoff run in Burnes’ final season of club control.

TOP ROOKIE: Jackson Holliday, 2B, Orioles

Nailing No. 1 overall draft picks is not supposed to be this easy, but the Orioles hit home runs with Adley Rutschman in 2019 and Holliday in 2022. Now, less than two years after being drafted out of high school, Holliday is positioned to take over as Baltimore’s second baseman as a 20-year-old. He has all the hitting savvy and defensive polish to make a run at Rookie of the Year and follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps.

SOPHOMORE BREAKOUT: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Orioles

One NL executive said it best. “The pressure on the Orioles to acquire an ace this offseason was overblown, because I think they already have one in the making in Rodriguez,” the exec said. After being humbled in the first half of 2023, Rodriguez retooled his pitch mix at Triple-A. When he surfaced in the second half, he prioritized his four-seamer and changeup and ditched his cutter. The results spoke loudly. Rodriguez recorded a 2.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his final 13 starts, striking out 73 in 76.2 innings.

UNDERSTATED STAR: Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays

Arozarena is well-known in two realms—October lore and fantasy baseball—but a bit underappreciated in the bigger picture. He has hit 11 homers with a 1.104 OPS in 33 postseason games, and since becoming a regular in 2021, he is a lock for 20 homers and 20 steals. But Arozarena is also quietly one of the top dozen or so outfielders by WAR since the pandemic.

BOUNCEBACK: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays

Multiple industry sources nodded to Guerrero, whose OPS dipped 30 points in 2023. One culprit appears to be the resized Rogers Centre dimensions that diminished the Blue Jays’ power at home. “His process-level metrics were better than surface-level ones, and also he was banged up last year,” said one NL executive. “He struck out at a career-best rate last year, did a better job of keeping the ball off the ground and still hits it as hard as anyone,” said another NL exec. “There are still monster seasons in his bat.”

BEST OF THE DIVISION

C Adley Rutschman BAL
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
2B Gleyber Torres NYY
3B Rafael Devers BOS
SS Gunnar Henderson BAL
LF Randy Arozarena TB
CF Aaron Judge NYY
RF Juan Soto NYY
DH Yandy Diaz TB
SP Kevin Gausman TOR
SP Gerrit Cole NYY
SP Corbin Burnes BAL
SP Zach Eflin TB
SP Grayson Rodriguez BAL
SP Carlos Rodon NYY
CL Jordan Romano TOR

PREDICTED STANDINGS

1. Orioles
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Red Sox

LINEUPS & GRADES

Each player’s BA Grade reflects his current ability level, not what he was at his peak or what he projects to be in the future. Grades were determined by JJ Cooper, Matt Eddy, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Orioles	Overall BA Grade: 60
LINEUP
Pos	Player	BA Grade
CF	Cedric Mullins II	55
C	Adley Rutschman	75
SS	Gunnar Henderson	65
RF	Anthony Santander	50
1B	Ryan O’Hearn	45
DH	Ryan Mountcastle	50
LF	Austin Hays	50
2B	Jackson Holliday	60
3B	Jordan Westburg	45

ON DECK: The Orioles’ prospect well is far from dry. Next up are outfielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad and third baseman Coby Mayo.

ROTATION
Pos	Player	BA Grade
SP	Corbin Burnes	70
SP	Grayson Rodriguez	60
SP	Dean Kremer	50
SP	Tyler Wells	45
SP	Cole Irvin	45

TOP RELIEVERS
Pos	Player	BA Grade
CL	Craig Kimbrel	45
RP	Yennier Cano	45
RP	Danny Coulombe	45

WARMING UP: Intriguing arms such as Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich are working their way toward Baltimore and could debut.

BOLD PREDICTION: Jackson Holliday will take over as leadoff man with elite on-base skills, speed and plus hitting ability. He will score 100 runs and win Rookie of the Year.

NEW YORK YANKEES

Yankees	Overall BA Grade: 60
LINEUP
Pos	Player	BA Grade
3B	DJ LeMahieu	45
RF	Juan Soto	75
CF	Aaron Judge	75
1B	Anthony Rizzo	50
2B	Gleyber Torres	55
DH	Giancarlo Stanton	45
LF	Alex Verdugo	45
SS	Anthony Volpe	50
C	Austin Wells	45

ON DECK: Uber-prospect Jasson Dominguez will be recovered from Tommy John surgery by the summer to inject young blood into the lineup.

ROTATION
Pos	Player	BA Grade
SP	Gerrit Cole	75
SP	Carlos Rodon	55
SP	Marcus Stroman	55
SP	Clarke Schmidt	50
SP	Nestor Cortes Jr.	50

TOP RELIEVERS
Pos	Player	BA Grade
CL	Clay Holmes	50
RP	Jonathan Loaisiga	45
RP	Ian Hamilton	45

WARMING UP: Luis Gil returned from Tommy John surgery late last season and then missed a ton of bats in spring training.

BOLD PREDICTION: Playing for his next contract, Alex Verdugo makes a run at .300 and has just the right type of lefthanded bat to provide contrast in the lineup.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

Rays	Overall BA Grade: 50
LINEUP
Pos	Player	BA Grade
1B	Yandy Diaz	55
2B	Brandon Lowe	50
LF	Randy Arozarena	60
RF	Josh Lowe	55
3B	Isaac Paredes	55
DH	Jonathan Aranda	45
CF	Jose Siri	45
SS	Jose Caballero	40
C	Rene Pinto	40

ON DECK: Junior Caminero begins the season at Triple-A, but it won’t be long before he brings game-changing power to the Trop.

ROTATION
Pos	Player	BA Grade
SP	Zach Eflin	60
SP	Aaron Civale	55
SP	Zack Littell	50
SP	Ryan Pepiot	50
SP	Taj Bradley	50

TOP RELIEVERS
Pos	Player	BA Grade
CL	Pete Fairbanks	50
RP	Jason Adam	50
RP	Colin Poche	45

WARMING UP: The Rays’ farm is lighter in arms than usual, but still has the return of power righthander Shane Baz to look forward to.

BOLD PREDICTION: Aaron Civale’s velocity and strikeout rate ticked up late in 2023. Now, with a full offseason in the Rays’ program, he is primed to become a strong No. 3.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Blue Jays	Overall BA Grade: 50
LINEUP
Pos	Player	BA Grade
RF	George Springer	55
SS	Bo Bichette	60
1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	60
DH	Justin Turner	50
LF	Daulton Varsho	50
C	Alejandro Kirk	45
CF	Kevin Kiermaier	45
3B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	40
2B	Cavan Biggio	40

ON DECK: Orelvis Martinez has impact power potential. Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwitz and Addison Barger have modest upside.

ROTATION
Pos	Player	BA Grade
SP	Kevin Gausman	70
SP	Jose Berrios	60
SP	Chris Bassitt	55
SP	Yusei Kikuchi	50
SP	Bowden Francis	45

TOP RELIEVERS
Pos	Player	BA Grade
CL	Jordan Romano	55
RP	Erik Swanson	50
RP	Yimi Garcia	45

WARMING UP: Lefthander Ricky Tiedemann was a trendy breakout pick among scouts. This could be the year he lives up to his promise.

BOLD PREDICTION: Daulton Varsho sold out for power in 2023, and the increased loft hurt his contact quality. He will rebound and produce close to his career averages.

BOSTON RED SOX

Red Sox	Overall BA Grade: 40
LINEUP
Pos	Player	BA Grade
RF	Jarren Duran	45
3B	Rafael Devers	60
SS	Trevor Story	50
1B	Triston Casas	55
DH	Masataka Yoshida	45
LF	Tyler O’Neill	50
CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	45
2B	Vaughn Grissom	45
C	Connor Wong	45

ON DECK: Corner outfielder Wilyer Abreu made a promising MLB debut last season and should see plenty of at-bats in Boston.

ROTATION
Pos	Player	BA Grade
SP	Nick Pivetta	50
SP	Brayan Bello	55
SP	Kutter Crawford	50
SP	Tanner Houck	45
SP	Garrett Whitlock	45

TOP RELIEVERS
Pos	Player	BA Grade
CL	Kenley Jansen	50
RP	Chris Martin	45
RP	Josh Winckowski	45

WARMING UP: Trade acquisition Richard Fitts could be an early pitcher callup after logging 112 innings in the Yankees system last year.

BOLD PREDICTION: The Red Sox were passive in free agency but aggressive in extending Brayan Bello. Armed with a new slider, he will rank as a top 25 pitcher by WAR.