AL Central Draft Picks With The Most Intriguing Statcast Pitch Data
Image credit: Hagen Smith (Photo courtesy of Arkansas Athletics)
Each week, I dip into public Statcast data to provide insight on up-and-coming minor league talent. Now that the draft is complete, I will shift gears and dig into some data on recent draftees.
It is important to note that the dataset is incomplete. Pitchers may or may not translate their pitch shapes directly from college baseball to the majors due to differences in the baseballs, as well as potential differences in data quality and measurement. If a pitcher isn’t included here, it’s because there wasn’t any Statcast data.
We’ll also be looking at things primarily through a “stuff” lens. Namely, those pitch shapes that have the potential to work in the major leagues. This is inspired by the countless examples of unheralded college pitchers who take huge leaps once they hit a major league development system.
Chicago White Sox
Hagen Smith, LHP, 1st Round
Smith has a modern analyst’s dream fastball: Great extension from a very low slot with a ton of ride and plus velocity at 96.8 mph from the left side. From a pure stuff perspective, Smith’s fastball is right up there with Chase Burns, and while I have Burns slightly ahead of Smith at this point, there are arguments to be made for either pitcher.
He has a wicked slider with negative vert, high spin rates and low efficiency, getting almost 20 inches of vertical movement difference between his fastball and the slider. He flashed a changeup with almost 17 inches of fade, but didn’t throw it very much as his fastball, sinker and slider were so good that he didn’t need anything else. Given his arm slot, he may be a good candidate for a sweeper, but I think the two-pitch combo is good enough that he’ll be a viable pitcher regardless, so long as the command is good enough.
Phil Fox, RHP, 7th Round
The White Sox were on a mission, based on the data I have. Other than 6-foot-6 Pierce George, every pitcher they drafted in the data set had very low release points. Fox has a 4.9 foot release height but still somehow got 17 inches of IVB on his fastball. It’s a unique profile given his 5-foot-10 frame, very low slot and good vert, but he’ll need to throw a bit harder than the 92.5 mph he showed. I don’t have much more data on Fox, but the fastball will play from a stuff perspective, and I’ve warmed up to the notion that a 5-foot-10 pitcher can potentially succeed.
Aaron Combs, RHP, 8th Round
Combs is another pitcher who gets a lot of vert from a low slot. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb in saying the White Sox draft philosophy revolved around this principle. It’s a great shape fastball with below-average velocity at 92, getting huge ride and arm-side run. He also showed a sinker with slightly less ride and more run, and he may keep both pitches going forward.
His curveball is a huge pitch with tons of movement and spin, at around 2900 rpm. It’s probably not a major league pitch, but the feel to spin is there, so you’re getting a potentially plus fastball, and the raw clay to build a couple of breaking balls. Combs is a very intriguing arm.
Jack Young, RHP, 9th Round
Young has a 4.6 foot release height and is almost a complete sidearm thrower. He has the lowest arm slot from Chicago’s draft class among pitchers with Statcast data. He doesn’t have great present shape on any of his pitches, other than perhaps the changeup, nor does he throw very hard, averaging around 91 with his sinker. The White Sox are probably banking on their ability to coach up this type of pitcher, as the sinker could be better with a shape tweak, and he shows good feel for spin on both his curve and slider.
Blake Shepardson, RHP, 11th Round
Shepardson had an 7.80 ERA this season after an 8.39 ERA the year before, as he issued a lot of walks. However, from a pure raw ingredients standpoint, he shows some fascinating analytical traits. He has a great pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, with a fastball that averaged 97 mph from a very low slot. The fastball isn’t particularly spin efficient, so there’s likely room for growth from a shape perspective.
I think his mechanics look fine, so he may be a couple of tweaks away from unlocking his ability to throw more strikes. He flashes tremendous feel for spin, with spin rates in the 2700 to 2800 rpm range on his breaking balls. If he can bring that to his fastball, it could help that pitch become a plus or better pitch. This is easily my favorite value pick from the White Sox’s draft class.
Pierce George, RHP, 13th Round
If you’re a Sox fan, you’ll be delighted that your team got a 6-foot-6, 240 pound pitcher in the 13th round with a 95 mph fastball with 17 inches of IVB. He only threw 24 innings total the last two years, but it’s still a great value, as he has the raw tools to have at least a good fastball. I’ve said this many times, but guys like George—massive athletes with plus velocity—underscore just how hard it is to compete at the very highest level. This is a nice lottery ticket play by the White Sox.
Liam Paddack, LHP, 18th Round
I have data for Paddack on 86 changeups, 11 fastballs, six sliders and three curveballs. His fastball averaged 89 mph, but he does have the low arm slot the White Sox were clearly targeting.
Cleveland Guardians
Rafe Schlesinger, LHP, 4th Round
Schlesinger has a 4.3 foot release height with an average velo of 92 mph. The sinker could be an interesting pitch given the incredibly low arm slot. I only have a gyro-slider in my data set, and it grades out very well (the Guardians were targeting low-efficiency gyro sliders). The Statcast data has him with a 90 mph changeup with very similar shape to the sinker, which might mean it’s not really a changeup. He’s an interesting arm, but I’ll need to see more data on him to form a stronger opinion.
Aidan Major, RHP, 5th Round
Major’s dataset is from 2023 when he showed huge ride from a very low slot that should allow it play up at 92-93 mph. He also flashed a changeup with good fade and sweepy slider with 2750 rpm.
Caden Favors, LHP, 6th Round
The Guardians are banking on Favors’ ability to spin the ball. Other than the slider, none of his pitch shapes are great at present. He doesn’t throw hard, either, but his 2750 RPM four-seam fastball had the highest spin rate of any four seam fastball in the data set, just ahead of Chase Burns (Reds), Ryan Lambert (Mets) and Josh Hartle (Pirates). The four-seamer might be more of a hard cutter, a la Justin Steele and Cade Horton, so it will be interesting to see how the Guardians develop him.
Usually, when I look up a mid-round pitcher to see what their college performance looked like, it’s underwhelming. Not so with Favors. Over 200 career NCAA innings, he had a 3.29 ERA and did a good job limiting walks with just 47. In 2024, he started 16 games, threw 106 innings and had a 107/20 K/BB ration with a 3.21 ERA.
Favors also shows tremendous feel to spin on his curve and slider, and I have the slider as the best of the Guardians’ draftees. This is an exciting blend of pitchability, command and raw development potential. I love this pick for the Guardians.
Conner Whittaker, RHP, 15th Round
Whittaker features a 91-92 mph sinker with 16-17 inches of run, which is not far off from a shape standpoint to being a viable pitch. He pairs it with a changeup featuring good depth and a low-efficiency slider that grades out very well. It’s a nice profile that will play up a lot if the Guardians can get him throwing 93-94.
Jacob Remily, RHP, 16th Round
We have some Statcast data for a non-college pitcher, courtesy of the MLB Draft League. Remily is a projectable righty, standing 6-foot-6 and only 190 pounds, with a sinker that currently sits around 90 mph from a very low arm angle. This is a development bet that Remily can grow into his huge frame and add some major velocity as he matures.
Logan McGuire, 17th Round
McGuire has a decent fastball (93 mph), with decent extension and about average ride given the arm slot. It’s not an exciting pitch by any stretch, but it’s solid enough that it won’t hold him back, either. His slider is an extremely low spin efficiency pitch and likely has analytical traits the Guardians were prioritizing this draft.
Cam Walty, 20th Round
Walty shows a six-pitch mix and performed well this season over 14 starts, posting a 3.29 ERA with only 13 walks. This is a development bet on command/pitchability, with the hope that he can improve pitch quality once he hits pro training programs. It’s a classic Guardians pick, much like Caden Favors with lesser raw tools.
Detroit Tigers
Josh Randall, RHP, 3rd Round
I only have a three-pitch sample for Randall’s four-seamer, but it’s a fantastic cut fastball that grades out extremely well and show plus velo at 95-96 mph. He throws basically fully sidearm, so the 15 inches of IVB he gets on the pitch is well above average (about +4 inches with the college baseball). The slider is a high-rpm monster with incredibly low spin efficiency. He mostly threw the sinker in the data I have, but I’m more excited by the fastball/slider pair. He’s a very intriguing arm that also had a decent 2024 season in college.
Michael Massey, RHP, 4th Round
Another Wake Forest alum with great fastball shape, Massey (not to be confused with the Royals second baseman) throws his fastball 94-95 mph with almost 20 inches of IVB/flight from a high three-quarters slot. From a pure shape standpoint, it looks a lot like Chase Burns, except 3-4 mph slower. It’s a potentially plus or better pitch from a pitch quality perspective.
His slider has great shape with extremely low spin efficiency, but he doesn’t throw it hard enough yet, nor does he have the ability to spin it. Nevertheless, this is already a good pitch shape-wise and is a couple of development tweaks away from being an excellent pitch. This is a fantastic get in the fourth round, as the high-vert/plus-velo fastball and high-gyro slider pair is a tremendous foundation on which to build a repertoire, all packaged in a starter’s 6-foot-5, 230-pound frame. I love this pick for the Tigers.
Ethan Sloan, LHP, 8th Round
Sloan throws both a sinker and a fastball from an extreme angle. He somehow gets 15 inches of IVB/flight on both pitch shapes, with the sinker getting about 6 inches more run than the fastball. Both pitches will likely play given the extreme release point, which is almost 4.4 feet away from the center of the rubber. His slider had one of the lowest estimated spin efficiencies in the data set and excellent spin rates. This looks like the type of arm that will work very well as a lefty-one-inning guy in the bullpen, with a slight chance he can make it work as a funky lefty starter.
Micah Ashman, 11th Round
Ashman stands 6-foot-7 and only 195 pounds and had decent success as a reliever in 2024, throwing mostly just a fastball and sinker. He’s able to command the pitches well, so this is likely a development bet hoping he can add velocity once he fills out his frame with the help of pro-level athletic training. The fastball shape is close enough that this profile could become viable if his fastball suddenly jumps into the 94-95 range. None of his secondary pitches are interesting at the moment.
Preston Howey, 14th Round
We go from a 6-foot-7 pitcher to a 5-foot-10 pitcher with a 95 mph fastball that might work as a cut-fastball if he lowers the spin efficiency on the pitch. He pairs that with a low-spin efficiency cutter at 88 that should play well off the fastball. It’s a pretty nice find for the 14th round.
Anson Seibert, 16th Round
A 6-foot-8, 235-pound pitcher with a 92-93 mph, 2500 rpm fastball with almost 19 inches of IVB in the 16th round? This is a nice get by the Tigers here. He’s old for a high school pitcher at 19, but if I’m the Tigers, I’m ecstatic to get a 19-year-old that already shows near-average velo, has ability to spin, can get ride on the fastball and has a massive frame to dream on for velocity projection. I loved this pick by the Tigers, however, it looks like he won’t sign:
I think this is the kind of arm that could be a day 1 pick when he’s draft eligible again.
Kansas City Royals
Drew Beam, RHP, 3rd Round
I like Beam’s changeup, as it gets almost 16 inches of run with good depth. It pairs well with his 94 mph fastball, which has decent ride. He didn’t show an ability to spin a breaking ball, so it remains to be seen if he can be more than just a fastball-sinker-changeup guy without a standout pitch. It’s a solid profile, albeit not an exciting one.
Louis-Phillippe Langevin, LHP 4th Round
Langevin is a much more interesting arm, with a two-plane sinker that gets huge ride and run from a low lefty arm slot. It’s an interesting pitch that might work with a four-seam grip, as well, and the Royals would be wise to have him throw two fastballs for a while. It’s got decent present velocity at 92.5 mph.
The changeup shares a lot of similarities to Beam’s from a shape standpoint, showing a little less depth but more run. I like the potential for the pitch, especially as a weapon against righthanded batters. The slider is a true gyro, with one of the lowest spin efficiencies in the class, and he shows a good feel for spin. He also showed a hard cutter at 88 mph that might need a shape tweak. I think this is a very intriguing arm and one that could be a sneaky good pick.
AJ Causey, RHP 5th Round
I’m not sure how to evaluate a basically complete sidearm delivery from a stuff standpoint, except to say that he has a sinker with negative vert and almost 19 inches of run, which theoretically will play even at 90 mph. It will be interesting to see how this plays in the minor leagues.
Tanner Jones, RHP, 6th Round
Jones gets almost seven feet of extension on his otherwise-pedestrian 93 mph fastball, which he pairs with a gyro cutter/slider at 86 mph that has potential. He needs to add a lot of ride to the fastball to be a viable prospect.
Nate Ackenhausen, LHP, 10th Round
Ackenhausen has a high, three-quarter slot delivery, which makes his 18 inches of IVB play down. His calling card is his slider, which had the fifth-lowest estimated spin efficiency in the dataset. This is perhaps a viable bullpen arm with some velocity gains.
Zachary Cawyer, RHP, 11th Round
The Royals appear to love taking pitchers with 93 mph fastballs with about 15 inches of IVB. I’m not really a fan of that approach, as those are the fastballs that get smoked by pro hitters. Cawyer shows some promise with his ability to spin a curveball, but without a standout fastball, he has a long development road ahead of him.
Tommy Molsky, RHP, 12th Round
This is the other demographic that the Royals appear to covet: The low-slot sinker with 16 inches of run paired with a changeup that gets almost 19 inches of fade. Molsky’s slider had the lowest estimated spin efficiency of anyone in the data set, suggesting this is another trait the Royals were targeting, as they grabbed three of the eight guys with the lowest spin efficiency sliders.
Andrew Morones, RHP, 16th Round
Another pitcher with a 92-93 mph fastball and 16 inches of IVB, but Morones’ will play better given the arm slot. Considering he went in the 16th round, that’s not terrible, but the Royals’ track record for developing pitchers doesn’t give me a whole lot of confidence they know what to do with this archetype of pitcher. His curveball averaged 2800 rpm, so there’s feel to spin on the breaking balls, as well as the fastball. Were this an organization known for developing riding four-seam fastballs, I’d be a lot more excited about this pick.
Dash Albus, LHP, 19th Round
Albus might actually break the mould, with a 20-inch IVB four seam fastball at 91 mph and an interesting gyro slider at 2550 rpm. He mostly threw the slider in the data I have, but I think the fastball is a worthy pitch to lean into.
Minnesota Twins
Christian Becerra, RHP, 12th Round
Becerra’s most interesting pitch might be his 89-90 mph cut fastball, which I like a good deal more than his 90-91 mph four-seamer with mediocre shape. He pairs that with a slider at 82 and a slurve at 81.
Jacob Kisting, RHP, 14th Round
Kisting has a great frame at 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds and a fastball that gets well-above average ride given the arm slot. He only throws 90 mph, which is probably why he fits as a 14th round pick. If you’re throwing a dart in the late rounds, this is as good a bet as any, hoping you can train him to get to at least average velocity. He showed a changeup with solid fade (but with no whiffs in my sample), as well as a slider that is far too slow to be a viable pitch. If he takes a massive leap in fastball velo, the rest of his arsenal might be viable.
Aidan Haugh, RHP, 16th Round
Haugh has a very short track record, with only one season in the NCAA. Similar to Kisting, this is a developmental bet on coaxing more velocity out of his 6-foot-6 frame to capitalize on an otherwise solid fastball shape. He throws three breaking balls that are decent shape-wise, but he’ll need to find at least three mph more velocity to be a viable pitching prospect.
Logan Whitaker, RHP, 19th Round
My data on Logan is from 2023, but he fits the mold of a projectable 6-foot-6 pitcher with a 90 mph fastball with good vert, though he’ll need to add plenty of velocity. This looks to be a demographic the Twins were targeting, as they also drafted Jason Doktoczyk who stands 6-foot-6 and Xavier Kolhosser, a 6-foot-5 righty. The hope is that one of these guys makes huge velocity gains with pro training and development.
Merit Jones, RHP, 20th Round
Jones shows a five-pitch mix, headlined by a 90-mph sinker with mediocre shape, a slider with negative vert that could be interesting, a boring four-seam fastball, a two-plane curveball at 82 and a changeup without sink or fade at 83.
