9 Things We’ve Learned As ACC, Big 12 And Pac-12 Enter Conference Play

Image credit: (Photo courtesy of Florida State)

Conference play begins across college baseball this week in a few conferences around the country, most notably the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12.

The season is still quite young, but after three weeks, we have learned a fair amount about some teams from those three conferences. What exactly? And what still remains unknown? Let’s run through it.

Florida State has a true 1-2 punch in righthander Cam Leiter and lefthander Jamie Arnold.

To be totally honest, I’m a little hesitant to write that. Leiter has looked truly elite at times this season (especially a 13-strikeout game on Opening Day against Butler) and projects as a first-rounder in the 2025 draft. But he’s also coming off his worst start of the young season, as he gave up five runs on seven hits and four walks in four innings against Illinois in Greenville, S.C. Also, last year, after the Seminoles won a series at TCU on the second weekend of the season, I wrote something similar about Jackson Baumeister. He ended up going 5-5, 5.09 and was the 63rd overall pick in the draft. Not bad, but not really what I meant and not enough to stop Florida State from finishing 13th in the ACC.

But in Leiter and Arnold, who thus far has gone more under the radar because he doesn’t have a first-round grade but is 3-0, 0.00 with 27 strikeouts and two walks in 17 innings, Florida State has a dynamic duo at the top of its rotation. Very few ACC teams can feel so good about their top two starters – the list may really just be Wake Forest, Duke and Florida State – and that’s a great spot to be in for the Seminoles and first-year pitching coach Micah Posey.

Pitt deserves your attention.

The Panthers are 8-1 and last weekend hammered Oklahoma, 19-9 in seven innings, and California, 19-7, in the Las Vegas Classic. They haven’t yet played a home game and are off to their best start to a season since 2020, when they started 10-1.

How far can Pitt run with this? That’s something we’re still seeking an answer to. This weekend’s ACC opening series at No. 16 North Carolina is a big one as the Panthers chase their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1995. I’m especially interested in seeing Pitt on the mound. The Panthers’ overall numbers (5.54 team ERA) are deceiving after playing two games at altitude in Vegas, but they do need to find some answers in the rotation beyond righthander Jack Sokol (2-0, 3.00).

There are no layups in the ACC.

By winning percentage, the worst team in the conference is Miami at 6-5. The ACC is the only conference in the country where every team has a winning record. And not only does every team have a winning record, every team but the Hurricanes has a winning percentage better than .600.

That’s not going to last and it’s not like every school has played a meat grinder. But, by and large, the conference is taking care of business and not losing to bad teams. There are both plusses and minuses to a league with that kind of depth when it comes to NCAA Tournament selections. The bad news is that the ACC is probably going to struggle to place nine or 10 teams in the tournament. Historically, that has usually happened when there have been true cellar dwellers because teams will struggle to pile up enough conference wins. But it should help everyone from an RPI standpoint.

Someone will (probably) emerge to challenge Oregon State for the Pac-12 title. But who?

Picking the second-best team in the conference was a challenge coming into the year. The Pac-12 coaches and us went with Stanford. Others picked UCLA. After three weeks there’s less clarity than ever.

Oregon (8-3) has shown flashes and might be the right answer, though its early-season defense (.957) needs to improve. California (8-3) looked like it was about to take off until it lost to Ohio State and Pitt in last weekend’s Las Vegas Classic. Arizona State and Stanford are 6-6. Arizona and UCLA are both under .500.

The Beavers’ main challenger will likely be from that group (sorry 9-3 Utah and 7-4 Washington State). But it’s hard to say who it will be.

I was too optimistic about Stanford.

Our Top 25 rankings are a group effort, but I was the one pushing the Cardinal up to No. 15 in the preseason version. The Cardinal are 6-6 and lost home series’ to Cal State Fullerton (4-7) and Penn State (7-4) before last weekend’s get-right road sweep of Rice (4-8). Then it tripped up in a rivalry game Tuesday at Cal.

The sweep of Rice featured an excellent weekend from the rotation, as Matt Scott, Nick Dugan and Christian Lim combined to hold the Owls to four runs in 17.2 innings. I have no idea how good Rice is because it has one of the most difficult schedules in the country. But the Cardinal are a young team and needed a weekend like that. I think they’re an NCAA Tournament team, but they’ll need to continue to grow into that.

Southern California has a problem offensively.

The Trojans are 3-9 and have scored just 50 runs on the season—that’s 261st nationally. They’re hitting .216/.326/.311 as a team and have just two regulars with an OPS better than .600.

USC has played a tough slate, but nothing it shouldn’t be able to handle if it’s a serious NCAA Tournament contender. Instead, it’s dug itself a significant hole and it doesn’t get any easier. Arizona (5-6), which has one of the best offenses in the league, comes to town this weekend. Trips to Stanford and UCLA follow and while both the Cardinal and Bruins have early season questions of their own, USC is 1-7 away from home this year and went 8-17-1 away from home last year. If the Trojans don’t turn things around in a hurry, their season will be over before April 1.

Oklahoma State’s pitching staff has some foundational pieces.

The Cowboys had to rebuild their pitching staff after last season and there were questions about how well the new-look group would be. But at least in righthanders Brian Holiday (1-0, 0.90) and Gabe Davis (0-0, 1.32, 1 SV), the Cowboys have some answers.

Holiday, a junior college transfer, has thrown three straight quality starts to open the season. He held Arkansas to one run on two hits in six innings at Globe Life Field two weeks ago and last weekend held Central Michigan to one run in eight innings. Davis has been excellent in an extended role out of the bullpen and has held opponents to two runs in 13.2 innings, including 5.2 scoreless against Arkansas. And, aside from getting knocked around by Oregon State, which will happen to a lot of pitchers this season, righthander Janzen Keisel (2-1, 3.65) has been a solid starter.

The overall results to this point haven’t been great for Oklahoma State (7-5) and it needs a few more arms to step up. But there’s a core to build around.

Big 12 teams better be ready to stop the run.

Perhaps this is something I should have learned previously, but better late than never. Three Big 12 teams have already stolen more than 30 bases this season, led by Kansas State. The Wildcats have swiped 35 bases in 11 games this season and are on pace to shatter the program record of 149, set in 2009. They’ll surely slow down a bit, but probably only a bit.

It’s not just the Wildcats, however. Houston has stolen 32 bases in 12 games and West Virginia has swiped 30 in 13. Last season, six teams currently in the Big 12 ranked in the top 30 nationally in steals, all swiping more than 100 bases. No other major conference had more than one team cross the century mark.

We still don’t know how well the Big 12’s new teams will adapt.

It’s been a mixed bag early for the Big 12 newcomers. UCF is 8-1 and has a win at Miami. Houston is 8-4 and went 1-2 in a trio of close games last weekend at the Astros Foundation Classic, splitting a pair of extra-innings games and losing 3-1 to Vanderbilt. Cincinnati (7-5) and BYU (6-5) have some good and some bad.

The coaches picked the four newcomers to all finish in the bottom five of the Big 12 standings in the preseason poll. I don’t think we’ve seen enough to say definitively it won’t shake out that way. But the way UCF and Houston have started their seasons, especially on the mound, make them intriguing. We’ll quickly learn a lot more about the Knights, as they start at Oklahoma and then at home against Oklahoma State. Houston gets an easier on-ramp, with Baylor (4-8) and a trip to BYU, but that means the Cougars need to make hay early.