6 Players Who Just Missed The RoboScout Top 100
Image credit: Luken Baker (Brian Westerholt/Four Seam Images)
We recently released the Top 100 per RoboScout—a purely data-driven assessment unencumbered by considerations such as a player’s defensive ability, platoon splits, inherent makeup or the opportunity presented by the depth chart of their parent organization—and not sullied by human intervention.
Well, that’s not entirely true.
Although the model does its best to balance expected (fantasy) hitting contribution (over both short and long horizons) with anticipated level of peak performance, sometimes—especially for older players at upper levels—outlier performance, implying immediate major league hitting capability, get identified. Of course, that is a feature, not a bug.
However, for the purposes of something adjacent to a prospect list, some names are somewhat inappropriate. Most of the time, these are older players or players showing an outsized skill on the long tail of a distribution (for example, power, speed or a preternatural ability to make contact), though the players themselves aren’t traditionally viewed as prospects, despite qualifying per the plate appearance or innings pitched limits.
Below are some names who would have qualified in the Top 100, but were removed using the arbitrary criteria of being older than approximately 25 years old.
Luken Baker, 1B, Cardinals
Had I not removed him for being 26 years old, Luken Baker would have been the No. 1 player per RoboScout. That’s not surprising, since he had 33 home runs in 380 Triple-A plate appearances with a barrel rate of 26% and a wRC+ of 180. Although he had a less-than-auspicious major league debut, based on his Triple-A numbers in 2023, RoboScout expects him to be an above-average bat capable of 30-plus home runs. If you believe that the poor debut in St. Louis was just unlucky variance, Baker may offer sneaky value in 2024.
Michael Busch, 1B/3B, Cubs
In 465 plate appearances in Triple-A, Michael Busch had a slash line of .323/.430/.612 with a sub-20% strikeout rate and 26 home runs. Based on that 2023 output alone, RoboScout saw him as the 23rd-best hitter. Unfortunately, using a cutoff of 25 years old, Busch was left off the resultant rankings. Long a prospect who fantasy players were hoping to get an opportunity, Busch should now have that in Chicago, where he should get near-full plate appearances at an infield corner.
Spencer Horwitz, 1B, Blue Jays
The 25-year-old infielder made his Blue Jays debut in 2023 after putting up an impressive .337/.450/.495 slash line in 484 plate appearances at Triple-A. With only 10 home runs, he will never be a power threat, but he did have a higher barrel rate (20%) and a higher 90th percentile exit velocity (103 mph) than Miguel Vargas, Vaughn Grissom, Tyler Black, Justyn-Henry Malloy and Jordan Lawlar—though, of course, Horwitz finds himself more than two years older than all of those prospects. What Horwitz does bring is an excellent hit tool—more walks than strikeouts courtesy of a judicious eye and an 81% contact rate—that should play in the major leagues, though perhaps without the power and speed numbers that would make fantasy players salivate.
Hitters Who Just Missed the List
The following are some names who just missed the Top 100.
John Cruz, OF, Yankees
Our 25th-ranked prospect in the Yankees system was one of the highest ranked players in the Complex League per RoboScout. With league average contact and barrel rates—as well as a league average 90th percentile exit velocity—all while being essentially three years younger than the average Complex League hitter. What RoboScout doesn’t know, though, is that he is currently a center fielder (who probably will slide to a corner), but who has trouble catching up to high heat. Being able to get the hitting results that he has, at such a young age, makes him one of the players I’m most eager to watch in his first foray into full-season ball at Low-A Tampa in 2024.
Graham Pauley, 3B, Padres
After being drafted in the 13th round in 2022, Pauley burst onto the fantasy prospect scene in 2023 with a .308/.393/.538 slash line across three levels, with 23 home runs and 22 stolen bases over 542 plate appearances. Although he wasn’t traditionally young for the levels, Pauley did have solid Statcast data flashing higher-than-average contact, chase and barrel rates at High-A, leading RoboScout to view him as a near-average MLB bat capable of 15 to 20 home runs and approximately 10 stolen bases. What RoboScout didn’t know is that the Padres really like his makeup, likely giving him a leg up on opportunities over his organization mates, and potentially leading him to be a potential Brendan Donovan–type contributor for the Padres.
Damiano Palmegiani, INF, Blue Jays
Although a final 2023 line of 23 home runs in 540 plate appearances with a .255 batting average doesn’t sound particularly compelling for a 23-year-old across two levels, Palmegiani’s combination of solid power and approach with an average contact rate plays up in RoboScout’s model when folding in the underlying Statcast data. Finishing the season in Triple-A, it’s quite possible that the Venezuelan-born 14th-round draft pick from 2021 sees some time with the Blue Jays in 2024, continuing their recent lineage of righthanded-hitting bats with 20-plus home run power, a patient approach, but with limited defensive value, in the Davis Schneider mold.
