5 Pitchers Who Just Missed The RoboScout Top 100
Image credit: Drew Thorpe (Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images)
Earlier, we talked about the hitters. Now we’ll talk about the pitchers. Typically, on my dynasty roster, I personally split my hitter-prospects-to-pitcher-prospects at something like 80% bats and 20% arms. The reasons for not investing too much in pitching prospects has been fairly well-documented. Primarily, they seem to have higher injury risk than hitters—it seems like every month we hear about a top prospect being felled by an arm issue—with the recovery time often being an entire year or more. As a result of this diminished “expected value” in the Top 100, there were only 13 pitchers and 87 hitters. Ironically, in dynasty, the ace pitchers are extremely valuable.
Still, these pitchers had performances in 2023—and “stuff”—that RoboScout viewed was just outside the top 100. Don’t be surprised if the pitchers listed below who are in the upper levels make 2024 contributions.
Drew Thorpe, SD
The Yankees minor league player of the year, the 2022 second-round draft pick was traded to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto deal. It’s clear why San Diego was interested. Able to command his Bugs Bunny changeup, but now being able to supplement that with an 84-85 mph slider, to go along with his 92-92 four-seam fastball, Thorpe led the minor leagues in strikeouts with 182 and should be a mid-rotation starter.
Ricky Tiedemann, TOR
Our top lefthanded pitching prospect, it should come as no surprise that RoboScout views the 21-year-old Blue Jay nearly as highly. With a 65-grade fastball, a 60 grade on his wipeout slider, and also the potential for a plus changeup, RoboScout sees Tiedemann—despite only throwing 30.1 innings in Double-A—as a mid 3s ERA with a 26% strikeout rate. Keep in mind that RoboScout isn’t aware of Tiedemann’s injury risk.
Christian Scott, NYM
The No. 6 Mets prospect just missed RoboScout’s top 100 on the heels of his 33% strikeout rate, minuscule 3% walk rate and sub 3 ERA in 62 innings for Double-A Binghamton. With a well-shaped 94-95 mph four seamer that he easily commands, an above-average 84-85 mph slider and a split changeup that gets 39% swings out of the zone (where league average is 26%). He should be a mid-rotation starter for the Mets and make his major league debut in 2024.
Mason Black, SF
The current Giants rotation has Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks pencilled into the first three starting roles. In the last week, it was reported that Tristan Beck had an aneurysm in his arm and was subsequently placed on the 60-day IL, while Keaton Winn has been battling lingering elbow trouble. Although at the time of publication, neither Blake Snell nor Jordan Montgomery had signed—so the situation could change quickly—but it does seem like Sean Hjelle and Mason Black will get some starts for San Francisco this year, even when accounting for Alex Cobb’s return from his own hip issues. All RoboScout knows is that Black relied heavily on a two-pitch fastball/slider mix and should have a 14%+ strikeout-to-walk rate in the major leagues. Black may not become more than a back-of-the-rotation starter, but a 23-year-old projected for those results in Oracle Park is a valuable component in fantasy.
Henry Lalane, NYY
Henry Lalane’s ascension has been well documented, as he finds himself ahead of George Lombard and Will Warren despite not throwing more than 22 innings at the Complex League level on the strength of his athleticism, command and skill at giving hitters uncomfortable at-bats. RoboScout agrees, giving his four seam a 55 grade already and viewing his slider as a plus offering. It would not surprise RoboScout if Lalane finds himself firmly implanted in our fantasy top 100 by mid-season.
