2024 MLB Farm System Statcast Pitching Rankings

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Image credit: Kumar Rocker (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)

As we did last year, Baseball America is assessing prospect hitting performance based on underlying metrics using Hawkeye data gathered across the minor leagues.

In part one of the series focusing on hitters, we ranked all 30 systems based on advanced offensive Statcast data. Today, we move to the pitching side of things to examine which organizations’ minor league pitching groups rank the best when looking at a variety of advanced metrics.

Statcast data allows us to look beyond performance and subjective analysis of prospective major leaguers. Pitch-level data allows us to add context to the difference between two pitches at the same velocity that may generate very different results. For example, understanding how a pitch moves to the plate and the traits that impact the ball’s flight allow us to more properly assess the quality of that pitch. In turn, this allows us to get a more accurate understanding of how that pitch will translate against major league hitting. 

Examined below is a combination of pitch-level data and pitch-by-pitch performance metrics. Our goal was to more accurately understand which organizations have the highest quality of overall pitching talent. This also allows us to see what traits certain organizations may prioritize in the draft and international free agency.

Our Methodology

For each organization, team-level metrics such as whiff and chase rate were calculated by aggregating the metrics of each pitcher, weighted by number of pitches thrown by each pitcher in the organization at the end of the 2024 season (after the trade deadline) to provide an overall assessment of the pitching strength and depth of each organization. 

The overall organization’s Stuff+ number is a blended metric of each pitcher’s Stuff+ (based on our internal model). The resultant number was then scaled on a wRC+ scale where 100 is average and a standard deviation is 10 points. In other words, an organization with an overall Stuff+ number of 90 is one standard deviation worse than a league-average organization.

Only players between the ages of 17 to 25 years old who threw at least 100 pitches in 2024 were included in this exercise. Any pitcher older than that was removed to minimize the impact of older pitchers on rehabilitation stints or older veterans who make up a great deal of the Triple-A pitching staffs. This was intended to remove the “noise” from non-prospects and isolate, with more granularity, the team’s prospect pool.

Similar to last year, we also removed all players who spent the entirety of their season at the complex level. There’s less reliability with the data at that level, and its impact on overall performance could cloud the final results.

Organizational Pitching Statcast Ranking

teamstuff+whiff%CSw%chase%
BAL105.730.7%43.4%26.8%
SEA105.726.1%43.1%26.7%
LAD105.328.8%41.9%25.5%
BOS103.930.1%44.5%26.7%
NYM103.828.2%43.2%26.0%
TB103.829.4%43.8%27.5%
TEX103.130.7%44.2%26.8%
CIN102.828.2%42.6%25.8%
TOR102.528.6%42.7%27.1%
DET102.528.8%44.5%27.1%
NYY102.228.8%43.8%25.8%
MIL102.129.5%44.0%26.7%
MIA10228.6%43.5%26.7%
COL101.628.7%43.8%26.9%
KC101.627.4%43.3%26.9%
LAA101.628.3%41.6%25.6%
PIT101.628.2%42.7%26.2%
HOU101.628.9%42.9%25.9%
CLE101.428.6%43.7%26.6%
PHI101.329.1%42.9%26.4%
ATL10129.9%44.3%28.0%
CWS10129.7%43.3%26.4%
CHC100.929.8%42.3%26.0%
MIN100.828.0%45.2%27.4%
SD100.428.5%42.6%25.8%
SF100.228.4%43.4%26.5%
WSH99.727.3%41.3%26.5%
OAK99.527.0%41.1%26.0%
AZ99.529.5%42.7%26.5%
STL99.427.9%43.1%27.2%

Below is the above table, but instead of showing the ordinal numbers, the cardinal rank is displayed:

teamstuff+whiff%csw%chase%
BAL111310
SEA2301714
LAD3122730
BOS43311
NYM5221622
TB6972
TEX7259
CIN8232427
TOR918235
DET101426
NYY1113826
MIL128613
MIA13161112
COL141598
KC1527157
LAA16212829
PIT17242121
HOU18112025
CLE19171015
PHI20101919
ATL21441
CWS2261420
CHC2352623
MIN242513
SD25192528
SF26201216
WSH27282917
OAK28293024
AZ2972218
STL3026184

Interesting Takeaways

The Mariners and Dodgers being in the top four should not come as a surprise. The Red Sox had a much-discussed approach change up and down the organization in 2024, as they appeared to embrace the idea of non-fastballs being a primary pitch.

The Orioles have the top Stuff+ ranking and also elicited the most whiffs of any organization. The player development apparatus of our 2023 minor league organization of the year continued to operate at a high level in 2024.

The Rangers had breakout seasons from many of their pitchers such as Kumar Rocker, Alejandro Rosario, Kohl Drake and Jack Leiter. This is reflected in their top ten ranking in all of these metrics.

The Rays ranked in the top ten in all elements. The Brewers ranked in the top half in all four metrics.

Surprisingly, the Rockies appear in the top half of all metrics. Players such as Chase Dollander, Sean Sullivan, Carson Palmquist and Welinton Herrera all had excellent 2024 seasons.

The Braves appear in the lower quartile per our internal Stuff+ metric. However, they are in the top five for whiff rate, CSW% and chase rate. Similarly, the Twins lead the league in CSW% and are third in chase rate but are in the bottom quintile for whiff rate and Stuff+.

The Athletics are in the bottom quintile for Stuff+, whiff rate, chase rate and CSW%

Top Five Teams In Each Metric

Whiff Percentage
  1. Orioles
  2. Rangers
  3. Red Sox
  4. Braves
  5. Cubs
Called & Swinging Strike (CSW) Percentage
  1. Twins
  2. Tigers
  3. Red Sox
  4. Tigers
  5. Rangers
Chase Percentage
  1. Braves
  2. Rays
  3. Twins
  4. Cardinals
  5. Blue Jays

Results By Specific Pitch Types

To get more granular, we also looked at overall metrics and performance of some of the primary pitch types, again grouped by organization.

Four-Seam Fastballs

Currently, the four-seam fastball is primary pitch in the minor leagues, making up about 40% of pitches thrown. Below are the weighted averages of each organization’s aggregated four-seamers from the player pool.

IVB = Induced Vertical Break, HB = Horizontal Break, VAA = Vertical Approach Angle, RelHt = Release Height (in inches from the ground), Ext = extension (horizontal distance ball is being released from pitching rubber).

orgstuff+VeloivbhbvaarelHtextwhiff%csw%chase%
BAL10693.117.38.9-4.971.86.327%44%25%
BOS10493.315.59.9-4.868.26.327%49%23%
TB10493.316.48.1-4.970.66.225%43%26%
CIN1039315.89.5-4.969.46.223%42%24%
CWS10393.116.58.8-570.9626%43%24%
NYM10392.916.18.3-570.86.324%43%25%
COL10392.9169.7-570624%43%25%
LAD10294.115.58.8-5.171.16.124%40%23%
DET10293.315.58.8-569.76.323%44%24%
PHI10292.9169.1-5.171.76.224%42%23%
NYY10192.815.78.5-569.96.224%44%22%
TOR10192.4169.2-4.869.46.124%40%25%
CLE1019215.79-4.868.66.424%42%24%
MIN10192.816.18.8-5.171.76.123%44%24%
STL10193.315.29.8-4.969.86.222%43%26%
PIT10192.915.58.7-570.76.423%42%25%
MIA10193.215.18.5-4.969.36.225%42%25%
KC10093.115.78.6-5.171.86.221%41%24%
MIL10092.515.28.1-4.968.76.325%43%23%
HOU10092.416.17.8-4.970.86.325%43%24%
SF10092.115.69.1-5706.324%42%24%
LAA1009315.110.1-5.169.8623%41%24%
TEX10093.2158.6-4.9696.126%41%23%
SEA9992.115.110.8-5.168.65.821%43%24%
CHC9993.2157.4-5.170.66.423%41%24%
WSH9992.715.59.8-5716.222%41%24%
SD9993.114.88.9-569.66.223%42%23%
OAK989315.68.1-5.272.36.123%41%23%
ATL9792.514.78.3-569.36.324%43%24%
AZ9692.714.78.5-5.271.26.225%41%23% 

Below is the same table, but instead of the raw number, it is scaled where 100 is average and a standard deviation is 10. Because it is not “better” to throw from a higher release height, scaling it to the “plus” scale is meaningless and therefore that column was omitted. Similarly, the Stuff+ is already on the “plus” scale and was untouched. Note also that a VAA+ of 110 corresponds to a fastball that is flatter than the average fastball by one standard deviation.

orgstuff+velo+ivb+hb+vaa+ext+whiff+csw+chase+
BAL106105129100106110120106114
BOS1041099911411811112313791
TB10410811389109104110105118
CIN1031031031091051019299100
CWS1031051159910286115102104
NYM103101109929811098104110
COL1031001071119781101101109
LAD10212899999293998488
DET102109989910110693110105
PHI102101108103931041029892
NYY10197101941011009810981
TOR101891071051189210488110
CLE1018110110211611510097104
MIN1019810999939595111101
STL101108941121059888101120
PIT1011009897951139299107
MIA101108929510910310498112
KC10010510296851038393105
MIL10091938911310610910392
HOU1008810985109105108104104
SF1008110010394105999895
LAA100103911169387979098
TEX1001069096108921119388
SEA99819112692728210599
CHC99108898092112929298
WSH99969811299102878997
SD991048610097102959791
OAK9810299897991938990
ATL979084929910510110596
AZ9696859581981099182 

Below is the same table as above, but instead of the ordinal values, the cardinal rank is displayed: 

orgstuff+veloivbhbvaaextwhiff%csw%chase%
BAL11111395253
BOS23173241124
TB35326713582
CIN4131071118261615
CWS59214122831211
NYM61762417618106
COL71996182913147
LAD8116172623153027
DET92201613723310
PHI1016792412111722
NYY11211323141917430
TOR12268812410295
CLE1330121131142112
MIN1420515232221214
STL154214102127131
PIT1618181820224158
MIA17723225159194
KC18101120281429229
MIL192422284861123
HOU2027429698913
SF212814102111161821
LAA22142522227192618
TEX238261982542328
SEA2429241273030616
CHC2562730253252417
WSH26221951617282719
SD271228121916202025
OAK281515273026222826
ATL29253025151012720
AZ30232921292072529 

The Orioles have the best collection of four-seam fastballs, ranking in the top five for all three results metrics and in the top half for all of the parameters, including the highest ranked Stuff+.

The Mariners’ pitcher pool threw the fewest pitches that were classified as four-seam fastballs. Interestingly, they showed the most horizontal break, slowest velocity and shortest extension.

The Rays and Guardians threw the most four-seam fastballs amongst the organizations, with Guardians fastballs having the biggest extension and the largest increase in perceived velocity. Last year, the Blue Jays had the flattest four-seam fastballs, per VAA, and in 2024 they again lead, with the Guardians a close second.

Interestingly, the Dodgers collectively had the highest velocity, two full standard deviations higher and nearly 1 mph faster than the next closest organization (the Tigers), while also having the lowest CSW% and third lowest chase rate. This, perhaps, suggests they are prioritizing the raw metrics of the pitch rather than the game results of the execution.

Sliders

The second most-thrown pitch—and arguably the most important pitch in the modern game—is the slider, making up about 24% of pitches thrown.

Note that, because the release height and extension of a pitcher’s slider is essentially the same as their release height and extension of their four-seam fastball, these columns were omitted.

Below are the weighted averages of each organization’s aggregated sliders from the player pool.

IVB = Induced Vertical Break, HB = Horizontal Break, VAA = Vertical Approach Angle, RelHt = Release Height (in inches from the ground), Ext = extension (horizontal distance ball is being released from pitching rubber).

orgstuff+veloivbhbvaawhiff%csw%chase%
BAL119821.79.3-7.837%45%29%
HOU11782.61.78.3-7.634%45%27%
SEA11681.80.39.8-7.633%45%31%
NYY11582.81.18-7.734%45%29%
CHC11583.20.67.8-839%45%28%
MIA11582.70.67.8-7.937%48%30%
CIN11483.41.16.8-7.636%46%27%
LAD11484.61.26-7.439%47%29%
TEX11483.40.87.1-7.539%50%31%
KC11483.51.56.1-7.836%47%30%
TOR11482.92.26.6-7.434%46%30%
NYM11382.61.36.5-7.736%45%28%
CLE11382.91.77.1-7.535%48%30%
BOS11384.225.2-7.534%46%29%
PIT11382.91.66.7-7.736%46%30%
MIN11283.41.56.3-7.734%47%30%
SD11283.21.45.7-7.637%46%30%
PHI112830.96.6-7.835%46%29%
TB11284.22.44.7-7.537%48%32%
MIL11282.70.67.1-7.735%46%30%
LAA11283.506.7-7.739%45%31%
DET11283.30.56-7.940%49%32%
WSH11082.70.95.6-836%46%29%
OAK11083.10.55.8-837%45%30%
STL11082.80.35.7-7.838%45%30%
CWS11083.30.85.5-7.837%48%31%
ATL11083.51.85.1-7.737%47%32%
COL10982.90.75.1-7.837%46%30%
AZ10983.40.55.6-7.839%47%31%
SF10982.2-0.66.9-8.136%46%30% 

Below is the same table, but instead of the raw number, it is scaled where 100 is average and a standard deviation is 10. As with the four-seam fastballs, Stuff+ is already on the “plus” scale and was untouched. Note also that a VAA+ of 110 corresponds to a slider that is flatter than the average slider by one standard deviation. A slider with an IVB+ of 110 resists gravity more than the average slider by more than one standard deviation (though, that does not mean that it is “better” than a slider with a lower IVB).

orgstuff+velo+ivb+hb+vaa+whiff+csw+Chase+
BAL11983109122931019096
HOU11792110114109888781
SEA11679891261088092109
NYY11596101111103879292
CHC11510193110861148988
MIA11593931109110111299
CIN1141051011021079810080
LAD1141251029511711210195
TEX11410596104110112129112
KC114107107969610010398
TOR11497117100116869898
NYM113921049999998988
CLE1139710910511492115100
BOS11311811388110869591
PIT11396108101101100100100
MIN1121051079710285108105
SD11210210593106104101102
PHI112999810092949792
TB11211812085115105109115
MIL1129494104999195103
LAA1121078510110211589107
DET112103919690117118118
WSH11093989285969790
OAK11010092948510289100
STL110968993951079398
CWS110104979197103113110
ATL11010711288102102106120
COL109979588941069799
AZ109106919297115101112
SF10985761037910096104 

Below is the same table as above, but instead of the ordinal values, the cardinal rank is displayed:

orgstuff+veloivbhbvaawhiff%csw%chase%
BAL1296223142521
HOU227537253029
SEA330271830237
NYY42215411262423
CHC5142362742628
MIA6242252515517
CIN7914119201330
LAD811320161122
TEX9101996515
KC1049182016918
TOR11172142281520
NYM1226121616192727
CLE131877423315
BOS1423275272025
PIT152081215181413
MIN1681017122979
SD1713112210101212
PHI1816161524221724
TB1931303963
MIL202321817242111
LAA2152913132298
DET2212251926122
WSH2325172429211626
OAK2415242128122814
STL252128232172219
CWS26111826181146
ATL276429141381
COL281920282281816
AZ2972625193104
SF3028301030171910 

From a results point of view, the Tigers arguably have the best sliders, as they elicit the most whiffs, the second most chases and result in the second most strikes.

The Orioles have the highest Stuff+ on sliders from the model despite being the near-slowest velocity. Part of the model for sliders compares the velocity of the pitch to the primary fastball of the pitcher. This, along with having the second most horizontal break amongst organizations, likely accounts for the high Stuff+ rating.

The Mariners, just like we saw with the most arm-side horizontal break amongst four-seam fastballs, also have the most glove-side horizontal break on their sliders, suggesting an emphasis on East-West movement in their draft targets and pitching development.

The Blue Jays are second in VAA and IVB, suggesting that they de-prioritize vertical-plane break. The Red Sox and Rays are both in the top three for VAA and IVB, but also in the bottom four in terms of horizontal break, suggesting they go one further and focus on minimizing two-plane break. The Red Sox and Rays also are second and third in terms of velocity—which intuitively reduces the ability for pitches to break vertically or horizontally—suggesting that the two organizations prefer hard sliders to sliders with more movement.

Interestingly, the Astros, with Stuff+ and horizontal break in the top decile amongst organizations, also have some of the lowest whiff rates, CSW% and chase rates. This suggests that they prioritize the slider’s run value from its contact quality and how it pairs or sequences with other pitches.

The Yankees threw the most sliders of any organization. The Mariners and the Blue Jays threw the second and third most.

Two-Seam Fastballs

The third most-thrown pitch from the examined minor league pitching pool was the two-seam fastball, comprising 12% of pitches thrown, half the frequency of sliders.

Again, for the same reasons as above, the release height and extension columns were omitted.

Below are the weighted averages of each organization’s aggregated two-seam fastballs from the player pool.

IVB = Induced Vertical Break, HB = Horizontal Break, VAA = Vertical Approach Angle, RelHt = Release Height (in inches from the ground), Ext = extension (horizontal distance ball is being released from pitching rubber).

orgstuff+veloivbhbvaawhiff%csw%chase%
BAL10892.57.816.5-5.619%48%24%
SEA10892.28.316.8-5.518%44%21%
CIN10692.98.715.4-5.718%43%26%
MIA10693.29.415.3-5.617%44%24%
LAD10693.08.615.3-5.617%41%22%
NYM10592.89.515.2-5.517%43%23%
WSH10592.59.115.4-5.918%43%28%
TB10593.59.514.8-5.418%43%23%
SF10592.27.815.3-5.816%43%23%
CWS10592.18.215.5-5.617%41%21%
DET10592.67.914.9-5.817%45%24%
STL10492.19.615.4-5.618%44%26%
BOS10492.57.914.9-5.919%44%26%
AZ10492.28.614.9-6.018%40%24%
LAA10393.19.614.8-5.620%40%23%
MIL10392.09.315.0-5.517%44%22%
HOU10392.58.114.7-5.720%42%25%
NYY10392.29.215.0-5.720%46%23%
KC10393.09.814.4-5.619%43%26%
COL10392.910.215.0-5.620%43%26%
PHI10392.311.114.9-5.517%41%25%
PIT10292.18.314.5-5.818%37%23%
MIN10292.28.514.6-5.818%47%22%
TOR10291.59.215.0-5.325%45%24%
CLE10191.49.314.7-5.018%45%25%
SD10192.310.114.3-5.419%42%21%
TEX10191.86.914.3-5.717%42%23%
ATL10091.48.514.5-5.618%45%25%
OAK10091.58.814.5-6.017%39%25%
CHC9892.39.713.0-5.820%41%22%

Below is the same table, but instead of the raw number, it is scaled where 100 is average and a standard deviation is 10. As with the four-seam fastballs, Stuff+ is already on the “plus” scale and was untouched. Note also that a VAA+ of 110 corresponds to a two-seam fastball that is flatter than the average two-seam fastball by one standard deviation. A two-seam fastball with an IVB+ of 110 resists gravity more than the average two-seam fastball by more than one standard deviation (though, that does not mean that it is “better” than a two-seam fastball with a lower IVB or less flat VAA).

orgstuff+velo+ivb+HB+vaa+whiff+CSW+chase+
BAL10810287123100104120103
SEA108969312710710110481
CIN1061109810797101100115
MIA10611510510410190104101
LAD10611297105102939192
NYM1051081071041079110094
WSH105103102107869799122
TB105122107971119810196
SF1059787106908810197
CWS1059591108101939186
DET10510489999491111103
STL1049610810610498104112
BOS104103889988106104114
AZ10498979883998999
LAA103114108981011098793
MIL103941041011089210687
HOU10310291969711097104
NYY103981031019811011293
KC10311211091101103102112
COL10311111410110310999113
PHI103991241001059093107
PIT102959393901007494
MIN1029695959310111888
TOR10283104100115140109103
CLE101821049613096108105
SD10198114901131039585
TEX10190779095959798
ATL10083959310096110105
OAK100849994839084107
CHC989910871951079191

Below is the same table as above, but instead of the ordinal values, the cardinal rank is displayed:

orgstuff+veloivbhbvaawhiff%csw%chase%
BAL113282168114
SEA221231711930
CIN371751912162
MIA4210913271015
LAD5418811232624
NYM688106251721
WSH7101542818191
TB819204171419
SF91929725301518
CWS102324314222528
DET11926162326412
STL122266916115
BOS13112717277123
AZ1417191829152716
LAA1537191542822
MIL16251213524827
HOU171225212022111
NYY18181412183323
KC1954271210136
COL206211105184
PHI2114115829237
PIT2224222526143020
MIN232020232413226
TOR2428131421613
CLE2530112212079
SD2616329392229
TEX2726302821212017
ATL282921261719510
OAK292716243028298
CHC30155302262425

As we saw with their four-seam fastballs and sliders, the Mariners lead all organizations in horizontal break, further reinforcing an emphasis on East-West movement. Seattle also threw the most two-seam fastballs while the fewest four-seam fastballs, suggesting a migration away from the traditional most-thrown pitch in baseball.

The Rays throw the hardest two-seamers, with the Marlins close behind. Miami’s pitchers, however, manage to get the ninth most horizontal break, while the Rays rank in the bottom third of the league in horizontal movement. Just like with their four-seam fastballs—which were the first and third flattest amongst organizations—the Blue Jays and the Guardians interestingly have the two flattest collection of two-seam fastballs in the league. This suggests that they may not emphasize distinction between the two main types of fastballs.

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