2024 MLB Farm System Statcast Pitching Rankings
Image credit: Kumar Rocker (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
As we did last year, Baseball America is assessing prospect hitting performance based on underlying metrics using Hawkeye data gathered across the minor leagues.
In part one of the series focusing on hitters, we ranked all 30 systems based on advanced offensive Statcast data. Today, we move to the pitching side of things to examine which organizations’ minor league pitching groups rank the best when looking at a variety of advanced metrics.
Statcast data allows us to look beyond performance and subjective analysis of prospective major leaguers. Pitch-level data allows us to add context to the difference between two pitches at the same velocity that may generate very different results. For example, understanding how a pitch moves to the plate and the traits that impact the ball’s flight allow us to more properly assess the quality of that pitch. In turn, this allows us to get a more accurate understanding of how that pitch will translate against major league hitting.
Examined below is a combination of pitch-level data and pitch-by-pitch performance metrics. Our goal was to more accurately understand which organizations have the highest quality of overall pitching talent. This also allows us to see what traits certain organizations may prioritize in the draft and international free agency.
Our Methodology
For each organization, team-level metrics such as whiff and chase rate were calculated by aggregating the metrics of each pitcher, weighted by number of pitches thrown by each pitcher in the organization at the end of the 2024 season (after the trade deadline) to provide an overall assessment of the pitching strength and depth of each organization.
The overall organization’s Stuff+ number is a blended metric of each pitcher’s Stuff+ (based on our internal model). The resultant number was then scaled on a wRC+ scale where 100 is average and a standard deviation is 10 points. In other words, an organization with an overall Stuff+ number of 90 is one standard deviation worse than a league-average organization.
Only players between the ages of 17 to 25 years old who threw at least 100 pitches in 2024 were included in this exercise. Any pitcher older than that was removed to minimize the impact of older pitchers on rehabilitation stints or older veterans who make up a great deal of the Triple-A pitching staffs. This was intended to remove the “noise” from non-prospects and isolate, with more granularity, the team’s prospect pool.
Similar to last year, we also removed all players who spent the entirety of their season at the complex level. There’s less reliability with the data at that level, and its impact on overall performance could cloud the final results.
Organizational Pitching Statcast Ranking
team | stuff+ | whiff% | CSw% | chase% |
---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 105.7 | 30.7% | 43.4% | 26.8% |
SEA | 105.7 | 26.1% | 43.1% | 26.7% |
LAD | 105.3 | 28.8% | 41.9% | 25.5% |
BOS | 103.9 | 30.1% | 44.5% | 26.7% |
NYM | 103.8 | 28.2% | 43.2% | 26.0% |
TB | 103.8 | 29.4% | 43.8% | 27.5% |
TEX | 103.1 | 30.7% | 44.2% | 26.8% |
CIN | 102.8 | 28.2% | 42.6% | 25.8% |
TOR | 102.5 | 28.6% | 42.7% | 27.1% |
DET | 102.5 | 28.8% | 44.5% | 27.1% |
NYY | 102.2 | 28.8% | 43.8% | 25.8% |
MIL | 102.1 | 29.5% | 44.0% | 26.7% |
MIA | 102 | 28.6% | 43.5% | 26.7% |
COL | 101.6 | 28.7% | 43.8% | 26.9% |
KC | 101.6 | 27.4% | 43.3% | 26.9% |
LAA | 101.6 | 28.3% | 41.6% | 25.6% |
PIT | 101.6 | 28.2% | 42.7% | 26.2% |
HOU | 101.6 | 28.9% | 42.9% | 25.9% |
CLE | 101.4 | 28.6% | 43.7% | 26.6% |
PHI | 101.3 | 29.1% | 42.9% | 26.4% |
ATL | 101 | 29.9% | 44.3% | 28.0% |
CWS | 101 | 29.7% | 43.3% | 26.4% |
CHC | 100.9 | 29.8% | 42.3% | 26.0% |
MIN | 100.8 | 28.0% | 45.2% | 27.4% |
SD | 100.4 | 28.5% | 42.6% | 25.8% |
SF | 100.2 | 28.4% | 43.4% | 26.5% |
WSH | 99.7 | 27.3% | 41.3% | 26.5% |
OAK | 99.5 | 27.0% | 41.1% | 26.0% |
AZ | 99.5 | 29.5% | 42.7% | 26.5% |
STL | 99.4 | 27.9% | 43.1% | 27.2% |
Below is the above table, but instead of showing the ordinal numbers, the cardinal rank is displayed:
team | stuff+ | whiff% | csw% | chase% |
---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 |
SEA | 2 | 30 | 17 | 14 |
LAD | 3 | 12 | 27 | 30 |
BOS | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
NYM | 5 | 22 | 16 | 22 |
TB | 6 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
TEX | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
CIN | 8 | 23 | 24 | 27 |
TOR | 9 | 18 | 23 | 5 |
DET | 10 | 14 | 2 | 6 |
NYY | 11 | 13 | 8 | 26 |
MIL | 12 | 8 | 6 | 13 |
MIA | 13 | 16 | 11 | 12 |
COL | 14 | 15 | 9 | 8 |
KC | 15 | 27 | 15 | 7 |
LAA | 16 | 21 | 28 | 29 |
PIT | 17 | 24 | 21 | 21 |
HOU | 18 | 11 | 20 | 25 |
CLE | 19 | 17 | 10 | 15 |
PHI | 20 | 10 | 19 | 19 |
ATL | 21 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
CWS | 22 | 6 | 14 | 20 |
CHC | 23 | 5 | 26 | 23 |
MIN | 24 | 25 | 1 | 3 |
SD | 25 | 19 | 25 | 28 |
SF | 26 | 20 | 12 | 16 |
WSH | 27 | 28 | 29 | 17 |
OAK | 28 | 29 | 30 | 24 |
AZ | 29 | 7 | 22 | 18 |
STL | 30 | 26 | 18 | 4 |
Interesting Takeaways
The Mariners and Dodgers being in the top four should not come as a surprise. The Red Sox had a much-discussed approach change up and down the organization in 2024, as they appeared to embrace the idea of non-fastballs being a primary pitch.
The Orioles have the top Stuff+ ranking and also elicited the most whiffs of any organization. The player development apparatus of our 2023 minor league organization of the year continued to operate at a high level in 2024.
The Rangers had breakout seasons from many of their pitchers such as Kumar Rocker, Alejandro Rosario, Kohl Drake and Jack Leiter. This is reflected in their top ten ranking in all of these metrics.
The Rays ranked in the top ten in all elements. The Brewers ranked in the top half in all four metrics.
Surprisingly, the Rockies appear in the top half of all metrics. Players such as Chase Dollander, Sean Sullivan, Carson Palmquist and Welinton Herrera all had excellent 2024 seasons.
The Braves appear in the lower quartile per our internal Stuff+ metric. However, they are in the top five for whiff rate, CSW% and chase rate. Similarly, the Twins lead the league in CSW% and are third in chase rate but are in the bottom quintile for whiff rate and Stuff+.
The Athletics are in the bottom quintile for Stuff+, whiff rate, chase rate and CSW%
Top Five Teams In Each Metric
Whiff Percentage
- Orioles
- Rangers
- Red Sox
- Braves
- Cubs
Called & Swinging Strike (CSW) Percentage
- Twins
- Tigers
- Red Sox
- Tigers
- Rangers
Chase Percentage
- Braves
- Rays
- Twins
- Cardinals
- Blue Jays
Results By Specific Pitch Types
To get more granular, we also looked at overall metrics and performance of some of the primary pitch types, again grouped by organization.
Four-Seam Fastballs
Currently, the four-seam fastball is primary pitch in the minor leagues, making up about 40% of pitches thrown. Below are the weighted averages of each organization’s aggregated four-seamers from the player pool.
IVB = Induced Vertical Break, HB = Horizontal Break, VAA = Vertical Approach Angle, RelHt = Release Height (in inches from the ground), Ext = extension (horizontal distance ball is being released from pitching rubber).
org | stuff+ | Velo | ivb | hb | vaa | relHt | ext | whiff% | csw% | chase% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 106 | 93.1 | 17.3 | 8.9 | -4.9 | 71.8 | 6.3 | 27% | 44% | 25% |
BOS | 104 | 93.3 | 15.5 | 9.9 | -4.8 | 68.2 | 6.3 | 27% | 49% | 23% |
TB | 104 | 93.3 | 16.4 | 8.1 | -4.9 | 70.6 | 6.2 | 25% | 43% | 26% |
CIN | 103 | 93 | 15.8 | 9.5 | -4.9 | 69.4 | 6.2 | 23% | 42% | 24% |
CWS | 103 | 93.1 | 16.5 | 8.8 | -5 | 70.9 | 6 | 26% | 43% | 24% |
NYM | 103 | 92.9 | 16.1 | 8.3 | -5 | 70.8 | 6.3 | 24% | 43% | 25% |
COL | 103 | 92.9 | 16 | 9.7 | -5 | 70 | 6 | 24% | 43% | 25% |
LAD | 102 | 94.1 | 15.5 | 8.8 | -5.1 | 71.1 | 6.1 | 24% | 40% | 23% |
DET | 102 | 93.3 | 15.5 | 8.8 | -5 | 69.7 | 6.3 | 23% | 44% | 24% |
PHI | 102 | 92.9 | 16 | 9.1 | -5.1 | 71.7 | 6.2 | 24% | 42% | 23% |
NYY | 101 | 92.8 | 15.7 | 8.5 | -5 | 69.9 | 6.2 | 24% | 44% | 22% |
TOR | 101 | 92.4 | 16 | 9.2 | -4.8 | 69.4 | 6.1 | 24% | 40% | 25% |
CLE | 101 | 92 | 15.7 | 9 | -4.8 | 68.6 | 6.4 | 24% | 42% | 24% |
MIN | 101 | 92.8 | 16.1 | 8.8 | -5.1 | 71.7 | 6.1 | 23% | 44% | 24% |
STL | 101 | 93.3 | 15.2 | 9.8 | -4.9 | 69.8 | 6.2 | 22% | 43% | 26% |
PIT | 101 | 92.9 | 15.5 | 8.7 | -5 | 70.7 | 6.4 | 23% | 42% | 25% |
MIA | 101 | 93.2 | 15.1 | 8.5 | -4.9 | 69.3 | 6.2 | 25% | 42% | 25% |
KC | 100 | 93.1 | 15.7 | 8.6 | -5.1 | 71.8 | 6.2 | 21% | 41% | 24% |
MIL | 100 | 92.5 | 15.2 | 8.1 | -4.9 | 68.7 | 6.3 | 25% | 43% | 23% |
HOU | 100 | 92.4 | 16.1 | 7.8 | -4.9 | 70.8 | 6.3 | 25% | 43% | 24% |
SF | 100 | 92.1 | 15.6 | 9.1 | -5 | 70 | 6.3 | 24% | 42% | 24% |
LAA | 100 | 93 | 15.1 | 10.1 | -5.1 | 69.8 | 6 | 23% | 41% | 24% |
TEX | 100 | 93.2 | 15 | 8.6 | -4.9 | 69 | 6.1 | 26% | 41% | 23% |
SEA | 99 | 92.1 | 15.1 | 10.8 | -5.1 | 68.6 | 5.8 | 21% | 43% | 24% |
CHC | 99 | 93.2 | 15 | 7.4 | -5.1 | 70.6 | 6.4 | 23% | 41% | 24% |
WSH | 99 | 92.7 | 15.5 | 9.8 | -5 | 71 | 6.2 | 22% | 41% | 24% |
SD | 99 | 93.1 | 14.8 | 8.9 | -5 | 69.6 | 6.2 | 23% | 42% | 23% |
OAK | 98 | 93 | 15.6 | 8.1 | -5.2 | 72.3 | 6.1 | 23% | 41% | 23% |
ATL | 97 | 92.5 | 14.7 | 8.3 | -5 | 69.3 | 6.3 | 24% | 43% | 24% |
AZ | 96 | 92.7 | 14.7 | 8.5 | -5.2 | 71.2 | 6.2 | 25% | 41% | 23% |
Below is the same table, but instead of the raw number, it is scaled where 100 is average and a standard deviation is 10. Because it is not “better” to throw from a higher release height, scaling it to the “plus” scale is meaningless and therefore that column was omitted. Similarly, the Stuff+ is already on the “plus” scale and was untouched. Note also that a VAA+ of 110 corresponds to a fastball that is flatter than the average fastball by one standard deviation.
org | stuff+ | velo+ | ivb+ | hb+ | vaa+ | ext+ | whiff+ | csw+ | chase+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 106 | 105 | 129 | 100 | 106 | 110 | 120 | 106 | 114 |
BOS | 104 | 109 | 99 | 114 | 118 | 111 | 123 | 137 | 91 |
TB | 104 | 108 | 113 | 89 | 109 | 104 | 110 | 105 | 118 |
CIN | 103 | 103 | 103 | 109 | 105 | 101 | 92 | 99 | 100 |
CWS | 103 | 105 | 115 | 99 | 102 | 86 | 115 | 102 | 104 |
NYM | 103 | 101 | 109 | 92 | 98 | 110 | 98 | 104 | 110 |
COL | 103 | 100 | 107 | 111 | 97 | 81 | 101 | 101 | 109 |
LAD | 102 | 128 | 99 | 99 | 92 | 93 | 99 | 84 | 88 |
DET | 102 | 109 | 98 | 99 | 101 | 106 | 93 | 110 | 105 |
PHI | 102 | 101 | 108 | 103 | 93 | 104 | 102 | 98 | 92 |
NYY | 101 | 97 | 101 | 94 | 101 | 100 | 98 | 109 | 81 |
TOR | 101 | 89 | 107 | 105 | 118 | 92 | 104 | 88 | 110 |
CLE | 101 | 81 | 101 | 102 | 116 | 115 | 100 | 97 | 104 |
MIN | 101 | 98 | 109 | 99 | 93 | 95 | 95 | 111 | 101 |
STL | 101 | 108 | 94 | 112 | 105 | 98 | 88 | 101 | 120 |
PIT | 101 | 100 | 98 | 97 | 95 | 113 | 92 | 99 | 107 |
MIA | 101 | 108 | 92 | 95 | 109 | 103 | 104 | 98 | 112 |
KC | 100 | 105 | 102 | 96 | 85 | 103 | 83 | 93 | 105 |
MIL | 100 | 91 | 93 | 89 | 113 | 106 | 109 | 103 | 92 |
HOU | 100 | 88 | 109 | 85 | 109 | 105 | 108 | 104 | 104 |
SF | 100 | 81 | 100 | 103 | 94 | 105 | 99 | 98 | 95 |
LAA | 100 | 103 | 91 | 116 | 93 | 87 | 97 | 90 | 98 |
TEX | 100 | 106 | 90 | 96 | 108 | 92 | 111 | 93 | 88 |
SEA | 99 | 81 | 91 | 126 | 92 | 72 | 82 | 105 | 99 |
CHC | 99 | 108 | 89 | 80 | 92 | 112 | 92 | 92 | 98 |
WSH | 99 | 96 | 98 | 112 | 99 | 102 | 87 | 89 | 97 |
SD | 99 | 104 | 86 | 100 | 97 | 102 | 95 | 97 | 91 |
OAK | 98 | 102 | 99 | 89 | 79 | 91 | 93 | 89 | 90 |
ATL | 97 | 90 | 84 | 92 | 99 | 105 | 101 | 105 | 96 |
AZ | 96 | 96 | 85 | 95 | 81 | 98 | 109 | 91 | 82 |
Below is the same table as above, but instead of the ordinal values, the cardinal rank is displayed:
org | stuff+ | velo | ivb | hb | vaa | ext | whiff% | csw% | chase% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 1 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
BOS | 2 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 24 |
TB | 3 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 2 |
CIN | 4 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 26 | 16 | 15 |
CWS | 5 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 28 | 3 | 12 | 11 |
NYM | 6 | 17 | 6 | 24 | 17 | 6 | 18 | 10 | 6 |
COL | 7 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 13 | 14 | 7 |
LAD | 8 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 26 | 23 | 15 | 30 | 27 |
DET | 9 | 2 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 23 | 3 | 10 |
PHI | 10 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 22 |
NYY | 11 | 21 | 13 | 23 | 14 | 19 | 17 | 4 | 30 |
TOR | 12 | 26 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 29 | 5 |
CLE | 13 | 30 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 12 |
MIN | 14 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 2 | 14 |
STL | 15 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 27 | 13 | 1 |
PIT | 16 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 2 | 24 | 15 | 8 |
MIA | 17 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 19 | 4 |
KC | 18 | 10 | 11 | 20 | 28 | 14 | 29 | 22 | 9 |
MIL | 19 | 24 | 22 | 28 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 23 |
HOU | 20 | 27 | 4 | 29 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 13 |
SF | 21 | 28 | 14 | 10 | 21 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 21 |
LAA | 22 | 14 | 25 | 2 | 22 | 27 | 19 | 26 | 18 |
TEX | 23 | 8 | 26 | 19 | 8 | 25 | 4 | 23 | 28 |
SEA | 24 | 29 | 24 | 1 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 6 | 16 |
CHC | 25 | 6 | 27 | 30 | 25 | 3 | 25 | 24 | 17 |
WSH | 26 | 22 | 19 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 28 | 27 | 19 |
SD | 27 | 12 | 28 | 12 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 25 |
OAK | 28 | 15 | 15 | 27 | 30 | 26 | 22 | 28 | 26 |
ATL | 29 | 25 | 30 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 20 |
AZ | 30 | 23 | 29 | 21 | 29 | 20 | 7 | 25 | 29 |
The Orioles have the best collection of four-seam fastballs, ranking in the top five for all three results metrics and in the top half for all of the parameters, including the highest ranked Stuff+.
The Mariners’ pitcher pool threw the fewest pitches that were classified as four-seam fastballs. Interestingly, they showed the most horizontal break, slowest velocity and shortest extension.
The Rays and Guardians threw the most four-seam fastballs amongst the organizations, with Guardians fastballs having the biggest extension and the largest increase in perceived velocity. Last year, the Blue Jays had the flattest four-seam fastballs, per VAA, and in 2024 they again lead, with the Guardians a close second.
Interestingly, the Dodgers collectively had the highest velocity, two full standard deviations higher and nearly 1 mph faster than the next closest organization (the Tigers), while also having the lowest CSW% and third lowest chase rate. This, perhaps, suggests they are prioritizing the raw metrics of the pitch rather than the game results of the execution.
Sliders
The second most-thrown pitch—and arguably the most important pitch in the modern game—is the slider, making up about 24% of pitches thrown.
Note that, because the release height and extension of a pitcher’s slider is essentially the same as their release height and extension of their four-seam fastball, these columns were omitted.
Below are the weighted averages of each organization’s aggregated sliders from the player pool.
IVB = Induced Vertical Break, HB = Horizontal Break, VAA = Vertical Approach Angle, RelHt = Release Height (in inches from the ground), Ext = extension (horizontal distance ball is being released from pitching rubber).
org | stuff+ | velo | ivb | hb | vaa | whiff% | csw% | chase% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 119 | 82 | 1.7 | 9.3 | -7.8 | 37% | 45% | 29% |
HOU | 117 | 82.6 | 1.7 | 8.3 | -7.6 | 34% | 45% | 27% |
SEA | 116 | 81.8 | 0.3 | 9.8 | -7.6 | 33% | 45% | 31% |
NYY | 115 | 82.8 | 1.1 | 8 | -7.7 | 34% | 45% | 29% |
CHC | 115 | 83.2 | 0.6 | 7.8 | -8 | 39% | 45% | 28% |
MIA | 115 | 82.7 | 0.6 | 7.8 | -7.9 | 37% | 48% | 30% |
CIN | 114 | 83.4 | 1.1 | 6.8 | -7.6 | 36% | 46% | 27% |
LAD | 114 | 84.6 | 1.2 | 6 | -7.4 | 39% | 47% | 29% |
TEX | 114 | 83.4 | 0.8 | 7.1 | -7.5 | 39% | 50% | 31% |
KC | 114 | 83.5 | 1.5 | 6.1 | -7.8 | 36% | 47% | 30% |
TOR | 114 | 82.9 | 2.2 | 6.6 | -7.4 | 34% | 46% | 30% |
NYM | 113 | 82.6 | 1.3 | 6.5 | -7.7 | 36% | 45% | 28% |
CLE | 113 | 82.9 | 1.7 | 7.1 | -7.5 | 35% | 48% | 30% |
BOS | 113 | 84.2 | 2 | 5.2 | -7.5 | 34% | 46% | 29% |
PIT | 113 | 82.9 | 1.6 | 6.7 | -7.7 | 36% | 46% | 30% |
MIN | 112 | 83.4 | 1.5 | 6.3 | -7.7 | 34% | 47% | 30% |
SD | 112 | 83.2 | 1.4 | 5.7 | -7.6 | 37% | 46% | 30% |
PHI | 112 | 83 | 0.9 | 6.6 | -7.8 | 35% | 46% | 29% |
TB | 112 | 84.2 | 2.4 | 4.7 | -7.5 | 37% | 48% | 32% |
MIL | 112 | 82.7 | 0.6 | 7.1 | -7.7 | 35% | 46% | 30% |
LAA | 112 | 83.5 | 0 | 6.7 | -7.7 | 39% | 45% | 31% |
DET | 112 | 83.3 | 0.5 | 6 | -7.9 | 40% | 49% | 32% |
WSH | 110 | 82.7 | 0.9 | 5.6 | -8 | 36% | 46% | 29% |
OAK | 110 | 83.1 | 0.5 | 5.8 | -8 | 37% | 45% | 30% |
STL | 110 | 82.8 | 0.3 | 5.7 | -7.8 | 38% | 45% | 30% |
CWS | 110 | 83.3 | 0.8 | 5.5 | -7.8 | 37% | 48% | 31% |
ATL | 110 | 83.5 | 1.8 | 5.1 | -7.7 | 37% | 47% | 32% |
COL | 109 | 82.9 | 0.7 | 5.1 | -7.8 | 37% | 46% | 30% |
AZ | 109 | 83.4 | 0.5 | 5.6 | -7.8 | 39% | 47% | 31% |
SF | 109 | 82.2 | -0.6 | 6.9 | -8.1 | 36% | 46% | 30% |
Below is the same table, but instead of the raw number, it is scaled where 100 is average and a standard deviation is 10. As with the four-seam fastballs, Stuff+ is already on the “plus” scale and was untouched. Note also that a VAA+ of 110 corresponds to a slider that is flatter than the average slider by one standard deviation. A slider with an IVB+ of 110 resists gravity more than the average slider by more than one standard deviation (though, that does not mean that it is “better” than a slider with a lower IVB).
org | stuff+ | velo+ | ivb+ | hb+ | vaa+ | whiff+ | csw+ | Chase+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 119 | 83 | 109 | 122 | 93 | 101 | 90 | 96 |
HOU | 117 | 92 | 110 | 114 | 109 | 88 | 87 | 81 |
SEA | 116 | 79 | 89 | 126 | 108 | 80 | 92 | 109 |
NYY | 115 | 96 | 101 | 111 | 103 | 87 | 92 | 92 |
CHC | 115 | 101 | 93 | 110 | 86 | 114 | 89 | 88 |
MIA | 115 | 93 | 93 | 110 | 91 | 101 | 112 | 99 |
CIN | 114 | 105 | 101 | 102 | 107 | 98 | 100 | 80 |
LAD | 114 | 125 | 102 | 95 | 117 | 112 | 101 | 95 |
TEX | 114 | 105 | 96 | 104 | 110 | 112 | 129 | 112 |
KC | 114 | 107 | 107 | 96 | 96 | 100 | 103 | 98 |
TOR | 114 | 97 | 117 | 100 | 116 | 86 | 98 | 98 |
NYM | 113 | 92 | 104 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 89 | 88 |
CLE | 113 | 97 | 109 | 105 | 114 | 92 | 115 | 100 |
BOS | 113 | 118 | 113 | 88 | 110 | 86 | 95 | 91 |
PIT | 113 | 96 | 108 | 101 | 101 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
MIN | 112 | 105 | 107 | 97 | 102 | 85 | 108 | 105 |
SD | 112 | 102 | 105 | 93 | 106 | 104 | 101 | 102 |
PHI | 112 | 99 | 98 | 100 | 92 | 94 | 97 | 92 |
TB | 112 | 118 | 120 | 85 | 115 | 105 | 109 | 115 |
MIL | 112 | 94 | 94 | 104 | 99 | 91 | 95 | 103 |
LAA | 112 | 107 | 85 | 101 | 102 | 115 | 89 | 107 |
DET | 112 | 103 | 91 | 96 | 90 | 117 | 118 | 118 |
WSH | 110 | 93 | 98 | 92 | 85 | 96 | 97 | 90 |
OAK | 110 | 100 | 92 | 94 | 85 | 102 | 89 | 100 |
STL | 110 | 96 | 89 | 93 | 95 | 107 | 93 | 98 |
CWS | 110 | 104 | 97 | 91 | 97 | 103 | 113 | 110 |
ATL | 110 | 107 | 112 | 88 | 102 | 102 | 106 | 120 |
COL | 109 | 97 | 95 | 88 | 94 | 106 | 97 | 99 |
AZ | 109 | 106 | 91 | 92 | 97 | 115 | 101 | 112 |
SF | 109 | 85 | 76 | 103 | 79 | 100 | 96 | 104 |
Below is the same table as above, but instead of the ordinal values, the cardinal rank is displayed:
org | stuff+ | velo | ivb | hb | vaa | whiff% | csw% | chase% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 1 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 25 | 21 |
HOU | 2 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 30 | 29 |
SEA | 3 | 30 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 23 | 7 |
NYY | 4 | 22 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 24 | 23 |
CHC | 5 | 14 | 23 | 6 | 27 | 4 | 26 | 28 |
MIA | 6 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 25 | 15 | 5 | 17 |
CIN | 7 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 13 | 30 |
LAD | 8 | 1 | 13 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 22 |
TEX | 9 | 10 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
KC | 10 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 20 | 16 | 9 | 18 |
TOR | 11 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 28 | 15 | 20 |
NYM | 12 | 26 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 19 | 27 | 27 |
CLE | 13 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 23 | 3 | 15 |
BOS | 14 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 25 |
PIT | 15 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 13 |
MIN | 16 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 12 | 29 | 7 | 9 |
SD | 17 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
PHI | 18 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 24 | 22 | 17 | 24 |
TB | 19 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
MIL | 20 | 23 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 21 | 11 |
LAA | 21 | 5 | 29 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 29 | 8 |
DET | 22 | 12 | 25 | 19 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
WSH | 23 | 25 | 17 | 24 | 29 | 21 | 16 | 26 |
OAK | 24 | 15 | 24 | 21 | 28 | 12 | 28 | 14 |
STL | 25 | 21 | 28 | 23 | 21 | 7 | 22 | 19 |
CWS | 26 | 11 | 18 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 6 |
ATL | 27 | 6 | 4 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 1 |
COL | 28 | 19 | 20 | 28 | 22 | 8 | 18 | 16 |
AZ | 29 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 4 |
SF | 30 | 28 | 30 | 10 | 30 | 17 | 19 | 10 |
From a results point of view, the Tigers arguably have the best sliders, as they elicit the most whiffs, the second most chases and result in the second most strikes.
The Orioles have the highest Stuff+ on sliders from the model despite being the near-slowest velocity. Part of the model for sliders compares the velocity of the pitch to the primary fastball of the pitcher. This, along with having the second most horizontal break amongst organizations, likely accounts for the high Stuff+ rating.
The Mariners, just like we saw with the most arm-side horizontal break amongst four-seam fastballs, also have the most glove-side horizontal break on their sliders, suggesting an emphasis on East-West movement in their draft targets and pitching development.
The Blue Jays are second in VAA and IVB, suggesting that they de-prioritize vertical-plane break. The Red Sox and Rays are both in the top three for VAA and IVB, but also in the bottom four in terms of horizontal break, suggesting they go one further and focus on minimizing two-plane break. The Red Sox and Rays also are second and third in terms of velocity—which intuitively reduces the ability for pitches to break vertically or horizontally—suggesting that the two organizations prefer hard sliders to sliders with more movement.
Interestingly, the Astros, with Stuff+ and horizontal break in the top decile amongst organizations, also have some of the lowest whiff rates, CSW% and chase rates. This suggests that they prioritize the slider’s run value from its contact quality and how it pairs or sequences with other pitches.
The Yankees threw the most sliders of any organization. The Mariners and the Blue Jays threw the second and third most.
Two-Seam Fastballs
The third most-thrown pitch from the examined minor league pitching pool was the two-seam fastball, comprising 12% of pitches thrown, half the frequency of sliders.
Again, for the same reasons as above, the release height and extension columns were omitted.
Below are the weighted averages of each organization’s aggregated two-seam fastballs from the player pool.
IVB = Induced Vertical Break, HB = Horizontal Break, VAA = Vertical Approach Angle, RelHt = Release Height (in inches from the ground), Ext = extension (horizontal distance ball is being released from pitching rubber).
org | stuff+ | velo | ivb | hb | vaa | whiff% | csw% | chase% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 108 | 92.5 | 7.8 | 16.5 | -5.6 | 19% | 48% | 24% |
SEA | 108 | 92.2 | 8.3 | 16.8 | -5.5 | 18% | 44% | 21% |
CIN | 106 | 92.9 | 8.7 | 15.4 | -5.7 | 18% | 43% | 26% |
MIA | 106 | 93.2 | 9.4 | 15.3 | -5.6 | 17% | 44% | 24% |
LAD | 106 | 93.0 | 8.6 | 15.3 | -5.6 | 17% | 41% | 22% |
NYM | 105 | 92.8 | 9.5 | 15.2 | -5.5 | 17% | 43% | 23% |
WSH | 105 | 92.5 | 9.1 | 15.4 | -5.9 | 18% | 43% | 28% |
TB | 105 | 93.5 | 9.5 | 14.8 | -5.4 | 18% | 43% | 23% |
SF | 105 | 92.2 | 7.8 | 15.3 | -5.8 | 16% | 43% | 23% |
CWS | 105 | 92.1 | 8.2 | 15.5 | -5.6 | 17% | 41% | 21% |
DET | 105 | 92.6 | 7.9 | 14.9 | -5.8 | 17% | 45% | 24% |
STL | 104 | 92.1 | 9.6 | 15.4 | -5.6 | 18% | 44% | 26% |
BOS | 104 | 92.5 | 7.9 | 14.9 | -5.9 | 19% | 44% | 26% |
AZ | 104 | 92.2 | 8.6 | 14.9 | -6.0 | 18% | 40% | 24% |
LAA | 103 | 93.1 | 9.6 | 14.8 | -5.6 | 20% | 40% | 23% |
MIL | 103 | 92.0 | 9.3 | 15.0 | -5.5 | 17% | 44% | 22% |
HOU | 103 | 92.5 | 8.1 | 14.7 | -5.7 | 20% | 42% | 25% |
NYY | 103 | 92.2 | 9.2 | 15.0 | -5.7 | 20% | 46% | 23% |
KC | 103 | 93.0 | 9.8 | 14.4 | -5.6 | 19% | 43% | 26% |
COL | 103 | 92.9 | 10.2 | 15.0 | -5.6 | 20% | 43% | 26% |
PHI | 103 | 92.3 | 11.1 | 14.9 | -5.5 | 17% | 41% | 25% |
PIT | 102 | 92.1 | 8.3 | 14.5 | -5.8 | 18% | 37% | 23% |
MIN | 102 | 92.2 | 8.5 | 14.6 | -5.8 | 18% | 47% | 22% |
TOR | 102 | 91.5 | 9.2 | 15.0 | -5.3 | 25% | 45% | 24% |
CLE | 101 | 91.4 | 9.3 | 14.7 | -5.0 | 18% | 45% | 25% |
SD | 101 | 92.3 | 10.1 | 14.3 | -5.4 | 19% | 42% | 21% |
TEX | 101 | 91.8 | 6.9 | 14.3 | -5.7 | 17% | 42% | 23% |
ATL | 100 | 91.4 | 8.5 | 14.5 | -5.6 | 18% | 45% | 25% |
OAK | 100 | 91.5 | 8.8 | 14.5 | -6.0 | 17% | 39% | 25% |
CHC | 98 | 92.3 | 9.7 | 13.0 | -5.8 | 20% | 41% | 22% |
Below is the same table, but instead of the raw number, it is scaled where 100 is average and a standard deviation is 10. As with the four-seam fastballs, Stuff+ is already on the “plus” scale and was untouched. Note also that a VAA+ of 110 corresponds to a two-seam fastball that is flatter than the average two-seam fastball by one standard deviation. A two-seam fastball with an IVB+ of 110 resists gravity more than the average two-seam fastball by more than one standard deviation (though, that does not mean that it is “better” than a two-seam fastball with a lower IVB or less flat VAA).
org | stuff+ | velo+ | ivb+ | HB+ | vaa+ | whiff+ | CSW+ | chase+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 108 | 102 | 87 | 123 | 100 | 104 | 120 | 103 |
SEA | 108 | 96 | 93 | 127 | 107 | 101 | 104 | 81 |
CIN | 106 | 110 | 98 | 107 | 97 | 101 | 100 | 115 |
MIA | 106 | 115 | 105 | 104 | 101 | 90 | 104 | 101 |
LAD | 106 | 112 | 97 | 105 | 102 | 93 | 91 | 92 |
NYM | 105 | 108 | 107 | 104 | 107 | 91 | 100 | 94 |
WSH | 105 | 103 | 102 | 107 | 86 | 97 | 99 | 122 |
TB | 105 | 122 | 107 | 97 | 111 | 98 | 101 | 96 |
SF | 105 | 97 | 87 | 106 | 90 | 88 | 101 | 97 |
CWS | 105 | 95 | 91 | 108 | 101 | 93 | 91 | 86 |
DET | 105 | 104 | 89 | 99 | 94 | 91 | 111 | 103 |
STL | 104 | 96 | 108 | 106 | 104 | 98 | 104 | 112 |
BOS | 104 | 103 | 88 | 99 | 88 | 106 | 104 | 114 |
AZ | 104 | 98 | 97 | 98 | 83 | 99 | 89 | 99 |
LAA | 103 | 114 | 108 | 98 | 101 | 109 | 87 | 93 |
MIL | 103 | 94 | 104 | 101 | 108 | 92 | 106 | 87 |
HOU | 103 | 102 | 91 | 96 | 97 | 110 | 97 | 104 |
NYY | 103 | 98 | 103 | 101 | 98 | 110 | 112 | 93 |
KC | 103 | 112 | 110 | 91 | 101 | 103 | 102 | 112 |
COL | 103 | 111 | 114 | 101 | 103 | 109 | 99 | 113 |
PHI | 103 | 99 | 124 | 100 | 105 | 90 | 93 | 107 |
PIT | 102 | 95 | 93 | 93 | 90 | 100 | 74 | 94 |
MIN | 102 | 96 | 95 | 95 | 93 | 101 | 118 | 88 |
TOR | 102 | 83 | 104 | 100 | 115 | 140 | 109 | 103 |
CLE | 101 | 82 | 104 | 96 | 130 | 96 | 108 | 105 |
SD | 101 | 98 | 114 | 90 | 113 | 103 | 95 | 85 |
TEX | 101 | 90 | 77 | 90 | 95 | 95 | 97 | 98 |
ATL | 100 | 83 | 95 | 93 | 100 | 96 | 110 | 105 |
OAK | 100 | 84 | 99 | 94 | 83 | 90 | 84 | 107 |
CHC | 98 | 99 | 108 | 71 | 95 | 107 | 91 | 91 |
Below is the same table as above, but instead of the ordinal values, the cardinal rank is displayed:
org | stuff+ | velo | ivb | hb | vaa | whiff% | csw% | chase% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 1 | 13 | 28 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 14 |
SEA | 2 | 21 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 30 |
CIN | 3 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 19 | 12 | 16 | 2 |
MIA | 4 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 27 | 10 | 15 |
LAD | 5 | 4 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 23 | 26 | 24 |
NYM | 6 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 25 | 17 | 21 |
WSH | 7 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 28 | 18 | 19 | 1 |
TB | 8 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 19 |
SF | 9 | 19 | 29 | 7 | 25 | 30 | 15 | 18 |
CWS | 10 | 23 | 24 | 3 | 14 | 22 | 25 | 28 |
DET | 11 | 9 | 26 | 16 | 23 | 26 | 4 | 12 |
STL | 12 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 11 | 5 |
BOS | 13 | 11 | 27 | 17 | 27 | 7 | 12 | 3 |
AZ | 14 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 29 | 15 | 27 | 16 |
LAA | 15 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 28 | 22 |
MIL | 16 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 24 | 8 | 27 |
HOU | 17 | 12 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 2 | 21 | 11 |
NYY | 18 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
KC | 19 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 6 |
COL | 20 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 4 |
PHI | 21 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 29 | 23 | 7 |
PIT | 22 | 24 | 22 | 25 | 26 | 14 | 30 | 20 |
MIN | 23 | 20 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 13 | 2 | 26 |
TOR | 24 | 28 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
CLE | 25 | 30 | 11 | 22 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 9 |
SD | 26 | 16 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 29 |
TEX | 27 | 26 | 30 | 28 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 17 |
ATL | 28 | 29 | 21 | 26 | 17 | 19 | 5 | 10 |
OAK | 29 | 27 | 16 | 24 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 8 |
CHC | 30 | 15 | 5 | 30 | 22 | 6 | 24 | 25 |
As we saw with their four-seam fastballs and sliders, the Mariners lead all organizations in horizontal break, further reinforcing an emphasis on East-West movement. Seattle also threw the most two-seam fastballs while the fewest four-seam fastballs, suggesting a migration away from the traditional most-thrown pitch in baseball.
The Rays throw the hardest two-seamers, with the Marlins close behind. Miami’s pitchers, however, manage to get the ninth most horizontal break, while the Rays rank in the bottom third of the league in horizontal movement. Just like with their four-seam fastballs—which were the first and third flattest amongst organizations—the Blue Jays and the Guardians interestingly have the two flattest collection of two-seam fastballs in the league. This suggests that they may not emphasize distinction between the two main types of fastballs.