2024 MLB Farm System Statcast Hitting Rankings
Image credit: Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle (Photo/Tom DiPace)
As we did last year, Baseball America is assessing prospect hitting performance based on underlying metrics using Hawkeye data gathered across the minor leagues.
Our Methodology
In order to calculate an all-encompassing number across a variety of metrics, we used weighted on base average (wOBA) as a baseline to help build our “HIT+” score based on weighting specific metrics’ correlation and influence on future wOBA. The HIT+ score, as described in last week’s article, measures production on a scale similar to Weighted Runs Created (wRC+), with 100 as the average.
All outputs are weighted based on sample size—depending on the metric, using plate appearances, pitches, or swings—to derive each major league organization’s aggregate metric.
Below are the organizational hitting rankings using this methodology:
HIT+
| team | hit+ |
|---|---|
| DET | 115 |
| LAD | 114 |
| MIN | 112 |
| SEA | 112 |
| MIL | 111 |
| TOR | 110 |
| CLE | 109 |
| OAK | 109 |
| STL | 108 |
| NYY | 108 |
| CHC | 105 |
| SF | 104 |
| BOS | 103 |
| CWS | 102 |
| PHI | 102 |
| KC | 101 |
| SD | 101 |
| MIA | 99 |
| AZ | 98 |
| BAL | 94 |
| TEX | 94 |
| HOU | 93 |
| PIT | 92 |
| LAA | 90 |
| TB | 89 |
| COL | 89 |
| ATL | 87 |
| NYM | 86 |
| WSH | 82 |
| CIN | 80 |
Last year, the Tigers were a surprise addition near the top of the charts. This year, they lead the league in this metric with strong performances from Kevin McGonigle (130 HIT+) and Dillon Dingler (122). Trading Jack Flaherty helped by adding Thayron Liranzo (120) and Trey Sweeney (117). The parent club was a surprise playoff team in 2024, and it seems that there is solid hitting depth in the organization.
The Dodgers finished runner-up, as their player development machine continues to deliver prospects. If they had held onto prospects they traded at the deadline—the aforementioned Liranzo (120) and Sweeney (117), but also Jeral Perez (113) and Miguel Vargas (124)—they actually would have led in this metric, while the Tigers would have dropped to fourth. It’s a testament to their depth that they could trade from their immense prospect depth for major league contributors and still be in the top quintile of the league in the key Statcast hitting metrics.
The Mariners also traded some of their high profile prospects at the trade deadline, such as Aidan Smith (115) in the Randy Arozarena deal with the Rays, as well as prospects who graded high on this metric like RJ Schreck (124) and Jonatan Clase (114) in a deal with the Blue Jays. If they hadn’t made their deadline deals, they would have had the second-highest organization score. But by retaining players such as Colt Emerson (123), Cole Young (121), Michael Arroyo (117), Harry Ford (115), Jonny Farmelo (113)and Felnin Celesten (108), the Mariners are still in good shape and rank fourth in HIT+.
The Twins and Guardians were in the top 10 in 2023 and have risen even further in 2024. Luke Keaschall (128), surprising breakout Payton Eeles (123), Walker Jenkins (121), Kala’i Rosario (120), Emmanuel Rodriguez (118) and Ricardo Olivar (116) were all large contributors to the big scores.
Last year, the Rays, Nationals and Angels were in the bottom six, and again they find themselves in the lowest quintile in 2024.
By acquiring Schreck (124) and Clase (114), as well as Will Wagner (119), Joey Loperfido (117), Yohendrick Pinango (114) and Charles McAdoo (109), the Blue Jays significantly improved their hitting depth and find themselves in sixth in the league in HIT+. Had they not made the trades, they would be six points lower and drop seven slots in the organization rankings.
Now, let’s dig into some of the key hitting components of Statcast, including 90th percentile exit velocity, contact rate, chase rate and barrel rate.
90th Percentile Exit Velocity
| team | 90th ev |
|---|---|
| NYY | 102.3 mph |
| CHC | 102.2 |
| WSH | 102.0 |
| PHI | 101.8 |
| SF | 101.7 |
| HOU | 101.6 |
| NYM | 101.6 |
| LAA | 101.5 |
| MIN | 101.5 |
| DET | 101.5 |
| TOR | 101.4 |
| PIT | 101.4 |
| SEA | 101.4 |
| STL | 101.3 |
| LAD | 101.3 |
| CWS | 101.3 |
| KC | 101.2 |
| League Average | 101.2 |
| CIN | 101.2 |
| OAK | 101.1 |
| COL | 101.1 |
| BOS | 101.0 |
| MIA | 100.9 |
| BAL | 100.7 |
| MIL | 100.6 |
| ATL | 100.5 |
| TB | 100.5 |
| TEX | 100.3 |
| AZ | 100.1 |
| CLE | 100.0 |
| SD | 99.6 |
The Yankees lead the league with an average 90th percentile exit velocity across the organization of 102.3 mph. Some players with 90th EVs above 107 mph were Spencer Jones (107.7 mph), Yankee minor league player of the year Rafael Flores (108.1) and AFL home run derby champion Garrett Martin (107.7). Had they not traded him to the Marlins, Agustin Ramirez and his 107.9 mph 90th percentile exit velocity would also be part of this illustrious crew.
Last year, the Cubs led the league in 90th percentile exit velocity, and in 2024, they find themselves just off the top spot. This demonstrates both the year-over-year stickiness of the metric and the fact that the Cubs appear to prioritize quality of contact.
In 2023, the Guardians ranked at the bottom with a 100.4 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. This year they have a 100.0 mph exit velocity, slightly better than the lagging Padres, who couldn’t quite make the century mark for miles per hour off the bat.
The Marlins, after acquiring Agustin Ramirez (108 mph) and Deyvison De Los Santos (108 mph), also gained exit velocity organization-wide.
The Red Sox lost exit velocity when they parted ways with Nick Yorke (105 mph to the Pirates) and Matthew Lugo (105 mph to the Angels) and are interestingly below average, in aggregate, despite a successful hitting development overhaul in 2024.
Contact Rate
| team | contact% |
|---|---|
| MIL | 74.6% |
| CLE | 74.1% |
| STL | 73.5% |
| SD | 73.0% |
| TOR | 72.9% |
| BOS | 72.8% |
| AZ | 72.8% |
| DET | 72.5% |
| PHI | 72.5% |
| COL | 72.4% |
| OAK | 72.2% |
| SF | 72.2% |
| MIN | 72.2% |
| BAL | 72.2% |
| League Average | 72.0% |
| CWS | 71.9% |
| SEA | 71.8% |
| TB | 71.8% |
| TEX | 71.8% |
| NYY | 71.8% |
| KC | 71.8% |
| MIA | 71.8% |
| ATL | 71.7% |
| LAD | 71.6% |
| CHC | 71.2% |
| PIT | 71.1% |
| NYM | 70.8% |
| HOU | 70.5% |
| LAA | 70.5% |
| WSH | 70.4% |
| CIN | 69.8% |
The Brewers, though 24th league-wide in 90th percentile exit velocity, lead the league in contact with a near 75% rate across the organization (Spoiler alert: They also lead the league in chase rate).
In 2023, the Guardians ranked first in contact rate, and they slip down to second place in 2024. This contact-first approach seemingly trading off exit velocity—the Guardians ranked 29th in the 90th percentile exit velocity rankings above—is also what we see with the Padres (fourth in contact rate and 30th in 90th EV) and the Diamondbacks (sixth in contact rate and 28th in 90th EV).
On the other side of the coin, the Astros, Mets and Nationals find themselves in the bottom quintile for contact rate but in the top seven for 90th percentile exit velocity.
The club with the worst average contact rate was the Reds with a 69.8% mark.
Chase Rate
| team | chase% |
|---|---|
| LAD | 24.2% |
| MIL | 24.2% |
| NYY | 24.9% |
| SD | 25.0% |
| DET | 25.1% |
| MIN | 25.2% |
| TOR | 25.3% |
| BAL | 25.4% |
| SEA | 25.5% |
| SF | 25.8% |
| CLE | 25.9% |
| BOS | 26.1% |
| OAK | 26.2% |
| CHC | 26.2% |
| League Average | 26.5% |
| CWS | 26.7% |
| KC | 26.7% |
| NYM | 26.7% |
| ATL | 26.8% |
| PHI | 26.8% |
| PIT | 27.0% |
| HOU | 27.1% |
| TEX | 27.5% |
| TB | 27.6% |
| MIA | 27.6% |
| LAA | 27.7% |
| AZ | 28.1% |
| WSH | 28.1% |
| CIN | 28.3% |
| STL | 28.4% |
| COL | 30.2% |
Once again, the Brewers find themselves at the very top of the rankings. With a league leading contact rate and chase rate, they seem to be prioritizing drafting or developing the hit tool skillset, first and foremost.
In 2023, the Dodgers had the best chase rate in the minor leagues, and in 2024 they share the honors with the Brewers.
The Padres, Blue Jays and Tigers are in the top 10 in both contact rate and chase rate, showing they, too, prioritize hit tool skills. This is a repeat performance of top 10 contact rates for both the Padres and Blue Jays from 2023.
The Reds and the Angels, on the other hand, are both in the bottom 10 for contact rate and chase rate, lagging the league significantly in hit tool skills in 2024.
The Rockies and Cardinals are near the bottom of the league for chase rate yet are in the top 10 for contact rate, suggesting that putting the ball in play appears to be a priority over making more optimal swing decisions.
Barrel Rate
| Team | barrel% |
|---|---|
| NYY | 14.2% |
| SEA | 14.0% |
| LAD | 13.6% |
| CHC | 13.4% |
| MIN | 13.3% |
| SF | 13.3% |
| DET | 13.2% |
| TOR | 13.2% |
| LAA | 12.9% |
| OAK | 12.9% |
| CWS | 12.8% |
| PIT | 12.7% |
| KC | 12.6% |
| League Average | 12.5% |
| PHI | 12.5% |
| BOS | 12.4% |
| CIN | 12.4% |
| BAL | 12.4% |
| STL | 12.4% |
| MIA | 12.3% |
| HOU | 12.3% |
| WSH | 12.0% |
| NYM | 12.0% |
| AZ | 11.9% |
| SD | 11.8% |
| CLE | 11.8% |
| TEX | 11.7% |
| MIL | 11.6% |
| ATL | 11.5% |
| TB | 11.4% |
| COL | 11.4% |
The Yankees not only led the league in 90th percentile exit velocity but also barrel rate, indicating they hit the ball hard at ideal launch angles to inflict damage. The Cubs, Twins and Giants also were in the top 10 in both of these quality-of-contact metrics.
The Mariners and the Dodgers, although outside the top 10 in 90th percentile exit velocity, are second and third, respectively, in barrel rate. This suggests they optimize their hardest hit balls at ideal launch angles.
On the other side of the coin, the Nationals and the Mets have top 10 exit velocities compared to the rest of the league, but are in the bottom third of the league in terms of barrel rate, suggesting that there is room for improving on their raw power.
The Rays, Rangers, Guardians, Padres and Brewers are in the bottom quintile of the league for both 90th percentile exit velocity and barrel rate. It’s not a surprise to see the Guardians, Padres and Brewers here, as they seemingly prioritize hit over power. But it’s surprising to see the Rays here, who also rank in the bottom 10 for contact rate and chase rate.
Overall Rankings For Each Metric
Putting all of the above in context, here are the organizational rankings in one table:
| team | hit+ | 90th ev | contact% | chase% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| LAD | 2 | 15 | 16 | 1 | 3 |
| MIN | 3 | 9 | 15 | 6 | 5 |
| SEA | 4 | 13 | 17 | 9 | 2 |
| MIL | 5 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 27 |
| TOR | 6 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
| CLE | 7 | 29 | 2 | 11 | 24 |
| OAK | 8 | 19 | 11 | 13 | 10 |
| STL | 9 | 14 | 3 | 29 | 18 |
| NYY | 10 | 1 | 20 | 3 | 1 |
| CHC | 11 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 4 |
| SF | 12 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 6 |
| BOS | 13 | 21 | 7 | 12 | 15 |
| CWS | 14 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| PHI | 15 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 14 |
| KC | 16 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 13 |
| SD | 17 | 30 | 4 | 4 | 25 |
| MIA | 18 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 19 |
| AZ | 19 | 28 | 6 | 27 | 22 |
| BAL | 20 | 23 | 13 | 8 | 17 |
| TEX | 21 | 27 | 19 | 22 | 26 |
| HOU | 22 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 20 |
| PIT | 23 | 12 | 25 | 20 | 11 |
| LAA | 24 | 7 | 28 | 25 | 9 |
| TB | 25 | 26 | 18 | 23 | 29 |
| COL | 26 | 20 | 10 | 30 | 30 |
| ATL | 27 | 25 | 23 | 18 | 28 |
| NYM | 28 | 8 | 26 | 17 | 23 |
| WSH | 29 | 3 | 29 | 26 | 21 |
| CIN | 30 | 18 | 30 | 28 | 16 |
The Mariners, Twins, Tigers and Giants are the only teams that ranked in the upper half for all metrics. The Giants HIT+ metric is surprisingly low despite the high ranks for the Statcast metrics. This might be due to the fact that they are excelling at hitting fastballs while also facing more fastballs. The fact that they are lower on the HIT+ metric, which attempts to weight performance against non-fastballs equally, suggests that they might not be performing as well against breaking pitches and off-speed pitches, potentially highlighting a future vulnerability.
Conversely, the Dodgers have the highest HIT+ score despite being just below league average in contact rate.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at the pitching side of things.
