2024 MLB Draft Class Could Be Among Weakest Ever For High Schoolers

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When we updated our 2024 draft rankings today, there were just five high school prospects ranked inside the top 30. 

For some time, the expectation for the 2024 MLB draft class has been that this year’s high school group is down. Thirteen scouting directors polled on the strengths of the draft class gave both the high school hitters and high school pitchers a below-average grade. In the four years Baseball America has conducted this polling, it’s the first time that either prep hitters or pitchers has failed to earn at least a 50 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale.

That’s just the last four years. But what if we look back further? Just how weak is this year’s class of prep prospects relative to the norm—or relative to the weakest high school drafts we’ve seen.

There have been seven drafts with 10 or fewer high school players selected in the first round.

Year	No. of HS first-rounders
1992	7
1984	8
1988	8
1981	9
1985	9
2008	9
2005	10

The 1981 draft was a turning point for how the industry viewed high school versus college talent. It was the first draft in which more college players than high schoolers were drafted in the first round. Teams were facing the new realities of free agency, namely that proximity counted for a lot more than it did back when stars could be kept in perpetuity.

Teams have increasingly become more college-oriented over the years, and the restructured minor leagues means there are even fewer spots available for projectable high schoolers who need lots of development time.

If our most recent mock draft is any indication, the 2024 class has a chance to become the eighth class to ever have 10 or fewer preps selected in the first round. Eight high school players are including among the top 30 picks. There’s still time for high school players to move up the board or pop onto the scene entirely, ala this year’s Kellon Lindsey.

But it’s more typical for college players to move up boards throughout the spring based on conference performance, and it’s easier to slide a high school player to a later pick—where they are paid more than slot—on draft day than their college peers.

Our current draft board has only one player ranked inside the top 10: toolshed Konnor Griffin, a shortstop, outfielder and righthander for Jackson Prep in Flowood, Miss.

There have been just six draft classes in which Baseball America has ranked only one high school player inside the top 10—1981, 1982, 1988, 1992, 2006 and 2009. BA launched in 1981 and ranked amateur players for the draft for the first time that year.

Here’s where the 2024 high school class stacks up with the last 10 years of BA draft rankings in the top 30.

Year	HS players ranked top 30
2015	12
2016	15
2017	14
2018	15
2019	11
2020	9
2021	13
2022	11
2023	13
2024	5

The only other draft class in the last decade to have fewer than 10 high school players ranked inside the top 30 was the Covid-shortened 2020 class. 

Scouts questioned about the strength of the prep class this year gave fairly straightforward answers when asked about how they viewed the group. Many said it’s the worst they have seen in their scouting careers, and there’s some thought that this year’s preps are the weakest since at least 1990 and perhaps ever given the saturation of high school players at the top of the draft in early years.

It doesn’t feel like this year’s down high school class is anything more than the random fluctuation of talent. The group specifically lacks high-end athletes at up-the-middle positions and high-probability shortstops who also have strong offensive profiles. It’s quite early, but both the 2025 and 2026 high school classes appear flush with talent in those areas.

With four months to go until the draft, plenty can and will continue to change, but the 2024 draft class is shaping up to be one of the most college-heavy editions we’ve seen. 

Matt Eddy contributed research to this piece.