Image credit: Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB photos via Getty Images)

Award season in 2024 could have many implications for the 2025 MLB draft.

This season marks the third since the Prospect Promotion Incentive took effect, and for the first time MLB could have as many as three PPI picks added to the draft order as a result.

The most likely of the PPI draft pick additions will be the most unprecedented.

Royals all-world shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has a virtually airtight case to finish top three in American League MVP voting. Because this is Witt’s third and final season with PPI eligibility attached, a top-three MVP finish will grant the Royals a draft pick after the first round in 2025.

Not often does a 24-year-old like Witt place top three for MVP, but when a player of his caliber reaches those heights, it is notable.

Mike Trout. Bryce Harper. Alex Rodriguez. Mookie Betts. Albert Pujols, Juan Soto. Derek Jeter.

Those are the types of players who finished top three in MVP voting at age 24 or younger in the past 25 years.

Since the introduction of PPI for the 2022 season, no player has triggered a draft pick for an award finish other than a Rookie of the Year win. If Witt finishes top three for AL MVP, the Royals would become the first team to add a draft pick for a top-three MVP or Cy Young award finish.

Rookie Of The Year Races

Three PPI draft picks have been awarded since the initiative launched in 2022. All three resulted from Rookie of the Year wins.

Julio Rodriguez netted a pick for the Mariners in 2023, while Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson did the same for the D-backs and Orioles in 2024. Those extra draft picks were worth between $2.8 to $2.9 million in additional bonus pool money.

A number of 2024 rookies could yield 2025 picks, but those rookies are not currently viewed as betting favorites.

In the National League, a number of notable players would bestow a PPI pick with a Rookie of the Year win: Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill, Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn, Cubs first baseman Michael Busch and Brewers third baseman Joey Ortiz.

The list in the American League looks like this: Orioles left fielder Colton Cowser, Yankees catcher Austin Wells, Red Sox center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela and Rangers left fielder Wyatt Langford.

While it’s entirely possible that one or both of Merrill and Cowser could win Rookie of the Year trophies—each leads his league in fWAR—neither is currently the betting favorite.

No, the betting favorites are Pirates righthander Paul Skenes in the NL and Yankees righthander Luis Gil in the AL.

Why is neither player eligible for a PPI pick?

Skenes is disqualified on the basis of MLB service time. He did not accrue the necessary 172 days as a rookie in 2024. Gil spent all season in the big leagues, but he didn’t appear on the necessary number of Top 100 Prospects rankings—he went 0-for-3—to be PPI eligible.

It’s fair to say that few saw the 26-year-old Gil coming. He is old for a rookie, and his workload was an open question after he missed the bulk of 2022 and 2023 while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Summary

As many as three PPI draft picks could be added to the 2025 order if Witt places top three for AL MVP, Merrill wins NL Rookie of the Year and Cowser wins AL ROY.

That number could be zero, though, under certain conditions. Those conditions look like this:

• Aaron Judge is the favorite to win AL MVP. If he places first and, say, Gunnar Henderson and Juan Soto finish second and third, then the Royals would not add a draft pick for Witt in his final year of PPI eligibility.

• No PPI draft pick would be awarded if a standout rookie such as Paul Skenes, Brewers left fielder Jackson Chourio or Cubs lefthander Shota Imanaga wins NL Rookie of the Year. The same would be true if a player such as Luis Gil, Red Sox right fielder Wilyer Abreu or Athletics closer Mason Miller wins the AL award.

• In the ROY scenario listed above, not all would be lost for the Padres and Orioles. Even if they were to miss out on Rookie of the Year wins, Merrill and Cowser will have PPI eligibility in 2025 and 2026. Netting their clubs an extra draft pick would then require finishing top three in MVP voting.