2023 Top 100 Prospects: Notable Risers And Fallers In June Update

Risers

Jeferson Quero, C, Brewers (Moved from No. 98 to No. 66)

Any conversation about the best defensive catcher in the minors has to include Quero. He has a plus arm and a swift exchange to cut his pop times under 1.9 seconds on his best throws, with hands and blocking skills that are advanced for his age. The defensive component of Quero’s game isn’t new, but he has taken another step forward offensively and done it while young for his level as a 20-year-old in Double-A. Quero is showing more power this year, driving the ball in the air with more frequency and with more impact. The big red flag for Quero remains his plate discipline, as he’s still an aggressive hitter who will expand the zone too often, but the damage he’s doing upon contact is a good sign for a young catcher.

Colt Keith, 2B/3B, Tigers (Moved from No. 93 to No. 31)

Keith’s 2022 breakout season was derailed by a shoulder injury, but every offseason gives Keith a chance to get even better than he was the previous season. He’s showing a very advanced bat for Double-A Erie while playing both second and third base. He’s the Tigers’ most promising and polished minor league hitter, and isn’t all that far away from being ready to help in Detroit.

Matt McLain, SS, Reds (Moved from No. 95 to No. 48)

McLain’s taken a step forward in 2023, which is great news for a Reds team that all of a sudden has a very young, very exciting lineup filled with up-the-middle players. McLain’s ability to play shortstop and second base, paired with Elly De La Cruz’s ability to handle shortstop and third base and Spencer Steer’s and Jonathan India’s versatility, gives the Reds a whole lot of options for the next few years.

Noelvi Marte, SS/3B, Reds (Moved from No. 78 to No. 61)

Marte is a somewhat divisive prospect, as it’s easy to find evaluators who like him a lot and others who are much more skeptical. It’s reasonable to split the difference, as he’s got enough power and a solid batting eye to be a useful regular at third base. The 21-year-old could end up as the team’s top prospect before long, as the Reds other Top 100 Prospects are either in Cincinnati or in Triple-A Louisville waiting for a callup.

Tanner Bibee, RHP, Guardians (Moved from No. 24 to No. 13)

Bibee is the latest example of Cleveland’s uncanny ability to coax better stuff and more velocity out of polished college strike-throwers. The righthander raised his velocity immensely after getting into the Guardians’ system and the rest of his arsenal was amplified as well. He carried his gains into the big leagues, where he’s settled in as a mainstay in his team’s talented rotation.

Henry Davis, C, Pirates (Moved from No. 60 to No. 36)

The biggest thing for Davis this season has been staying on the field. A propensity for standing too close to the plate resulted in an inordinate amount of pitches plunking him in 2022, which led to stints on the IL. He showed off in the Arizona Fall League after the season, then raked to start the year at Double-A Altoona before earning a bump to Triple-A.

Brayan Rocchio, SS, Guardians (Moved from No. 67 to No. 38)

Rocchio has earned a couple of cameos in Cleveland this season, but it might not be much longer before he’s up there for good. Scouts have raved about Rocchio’s performance on both sides of the ball at Triple-A Columbus. His all-around game should provide both offensive and defensive gifts and could lead to an all-star future.

Logan Allen, LHP, Guardians (Moved from No. 66 to No. 41)

As noted with Bibee, Allen has come through the Cleveland pitching factory and emerged as a piece of the team’s rotation. He doesn’t have knockout stuff, but he’s got more than enough to settle in as a solid piece at the back end of a rotation. 

Ronny Mauricio, SS, Mets (Moved from No. 92 to No. 64)

Greater maturity in his swing decisions and his overall outlook have vaulted the switch-hitting Mauricio, still just 22, into a dominant season at Triple-A Syracuse and to the cusp of an MLB callup. He has gotten to more power this season while adding second base to his defensive portfolio.

Dalton Rushing, C, Dodgers (Moved from No. 74 to No. 60)

Rushing already looks like yet another in a long line of Dodgers draft steals. He went 40th overall last year, but if the draft was redone now, he’d be an easy top-15 pick.

Ben Brown, RHP, Cubs (Moved from No. 99 to No. 68)

Brown is a useful reminder to be patient when you draft a high school pitcher. A 2017 draftee, he broke out last year in his sixth pro season, was swapped to the Cubs in the David Robertson trade and now looks nearly ready to help in Chicago.

Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs (Moved from No. 88 to No. 67)

For years, the Cubs struggled with pitching development, but now the system has a number of potentially high-impact starting pitching prospects rising through the ranks. Horton is one of the keys to that pitching resurgence, and he’s carried last June’s breakout performance in the NCAA College World Series into his first full pro season.

Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles (Moved from No. 30 to No. 16)

Had it not been for a poorly timed injury we might have seen Cowser patrolling center field for the Orioles already. The 2021 first-round pick has more than held his own in Triple-A this spring, hitting for power, contact and approach while playing a strong center field. Cowser looks like an impact regular with a variety of ways to impact the game. He might be the next star to make his way to Camden Yards this summer.

Jordan Westburg, SS, Orioles (Moved from No. 63 to No. 46)

The 2020 supplemental first-round pick has done everything within his power to push his way to the major leagues in 2023. Westburg has hit for more power, struck out less and maintained his on-base skills while seeing time at three different outfield positions. While Joey Ortiz received the first callup to the major leagues, much of that was due to roster and 40-man mechanics. Look for Westburg to be with the Orioles sometime this summer as his upside on both sides of the ball and defensive versatility could pay dividends.

AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP, Braves (Moved from No. 97 to No. 49)

Smith-Shawver has been on a rocket ship to the major leagues this season. After beginning 2023 in High-A Rome, the righthander ascended three levels of the minors and into the rotation picture for the Braves. Atlanta is an organization that’s known for its aggressive handling of prospects and Smith-Shawver is the latest in a line of young stars to make his way to the major leagues for the Braves. Armed with two potential plus-plus offerings in his high-ride mid-90s four-seam fastball and slider, Smith-Shawver is equipped with the stuff to succeed at the highest level.

Adael Amador, SS, Rockies (Moved from No. 64 to No. 50)

The bat-to-ball skills, approach and baseball acumen were unquestioned entering 2023, but how much impact Amador would hit for remained a question. Over the first two months of 2023 not only is Amador flashing extra-base power, but his underlying exit velocity data is now creeping into average range for a major league hitter. One of the most talented young hitters in the minor leagues, Amador is difficult to strike out, takes his walks and can do damage on mistakes left over the plate. He’s one of the most advanced hitters in the lower minors.

Ethan Salas, C, Padres (Moved from No. 77 to No. 40)

Salas is one of the most precocious young players in the minor leagues. He skipped the DSL and the ACL and made his official affiliated debut in Low-A two days before turning 17. The No. 1 prospect in the most recent international period, Salas has an unfathomably rich blend of tools and skills, all tied together by savvy sometimes unseen in players 10 years his senior.

Bryce Miller, RHP, Mariners (Moved from No. 73 to No. 44)

Like Eury Perez, Miller started his season in Double-A and then went straight to the big leagues without a turn in Triple-A. The righthander bulldozed the competition in his first few turns in the big leagues before running into trouble in his latter starts. Nevertheless, he looks to be another piece in Seattle’s line of talented arms.

Emmet Sheehan, RHP, Dodgers (Moved from No. 100 to No. 65)

The rotation at the Dodgers’ Double-A affiliate in Tulsa is one of the most talented in the sport, and Sheehan is its ace. The Boston College alum has sharpened his arsenal—particularly his slider—this year and now has improved his chance of staying a starter in the long term. His three-pitch mix and funky delivery could land him on Los Angeles’ staff toward season’s end.

Fallers

Curtis Mead, 3B, Rays (Moved from No. 23 to No. 37)

Mead’s biggest problem this year has been staying healthy, but even when he was on the field he seemed out of sorts at the plate. The underlying fundamentals are still really promising with Mead, but as a bat-first infielder with questions about his defense and now a wrist injury to recover from, Mead takes a slight tumble.

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Twins (Moved from No. 37 to No. 62)

Rodriguez was exceptional in the Low-A Florida State League last spring, but a knee injury forced him to miss the final four months of the season. Sent to the High-A Midwest League, Rodriguez continues to be one of the pickiest hitters in baseball. He never swings at pitches out of the zone, but more advanced pitchers are getting him to swing and miss in the zone.

Mason Miller, RHP, Athletics (Moved from No. 45 to No. 56)

Miller’s MLB debut was excellent, but after his fourth MLB start, he was shut down with an ulnar collateral ligament strain. A strain indicates a likely partial tear, but the hope is that rest and rehabilitation will allow Miller to return to action without surgery.

Cam Collier, 3B, Reds (Moved from No. 58 to No. 73)

Collier’s slow start in the Florida State League isn’t that troubling yet. The FSL is a tough place to hit after all, but scouts have more and more questions about whether he can remain at third base long term. If he’s moving down the spectrum, he’s going to have to show more consistent pop than he’s shown in his first couple of months in pro ball.

Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pirates (Moved from No. 40 to No. 54)

After a tough first month of the season, Johnson has been perfectly respectable the rest of the way. He also dealt with a right hamstring injury that cost him plenty of reps during spring training. He’s striking out more than you would like—his rate was roughly 35% as of June 6—and he was also running an extremely high BABIP of .446, so he’s not making enough contact, but he’s also finding a ton of success when he does put the ball in play.

Marco Luciano, SS, Giants (Moved from No. 31 to No. 63)

Luciano has been lapped by lefthander Kyle Harrison for the top spot among San Francisco’s prospects, though he still has a chance at a very high ceiling. The 21-year-old Luciano’s issues have largely stemmed from a ton of time missed over the last two seasons from a recurring back issue. He started strong in a return to High-A Eugene but has since struggled in his first official test at the upper levels.

Bo Naylor, C, Guardians (Moved from No. 56 to No. 71)

Naylor hasn’t fallen as much as others in the system have risen. He had issues with his throwing arm early, though they stemmed less from poor arm strength than mechanics that left him in positions that were not ideal. He’s done a better job using the middle of the field and should settle in as a catcher who can provide some value with the bat as well.

Owen White, RHP, Rangers (Moved from No. 51 to No. 86)

When he’s right, White shows nasty stuff. He’s been a bit inconsistent this season, however, and his stuff has fluctuated from outing to outing and sometimes from inning to inning. His fastball is down a touch this year, too, and the crispness of his offspeeds has come and gone as well. If he can more consistently access his best stuff, he has the chance to scoot right back up the list.

Luis Ortiz, RHP, Pirates (Moved from No. 61 to No. 90)

Ortiz has always had excellent stuff but there were questions about whether he’d throw enough strikes to settle in as a starter. So far, he’s not throwing enough strikes in the big leagues to give the appearance of a pitcher who can stick in a big league rotation. Ortiz has also struggled with command. Put simply: He doesn’t throw enough strikes, and when he does find the strike zone he also often finds hitters’ barrels.

George Valera, OF, Guardians (Moved from No. 59 to No. 92)

Valera’s big issue is health. He missed a chunk of time early in the season with a wrist injury, then suffered a hamstring issue after returning. He’s currently playing rehab games in Arizona. He’s still young and has plenty of time, but he needs the developmental reps he’s missed while on the injured list.

Kevin Parada, C, Mets (Moved from No. 41 to No. 72)

The 2022 first-rounder out of Georgia Tech has not lit the world on fire in his full-season debut, but he has produced offensively at an above-average rate. Greater focus falls on his work behind the plate, where he needs to get more of his body into throws and improve his framing of high pitches.

Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Blue Jays (Moved from No. 20 to No. 55)

There’s little to question about Tiedemann’s talent or production thus far in his professional career, as few lefthanders have better stuff than Tiedemann. However, his health has become a major question mark. Tiedemann dealt with a shoulder injury coming out of spring training and was shut down with a biceps injury in May. All of these injuries are ominous, particularly when Tiedemann has only exceeded the 60-pitch mark once since July 8 of last season.

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Orioles (Moved from No. 4 to No. 17)

The hard truth is Rodriguez hasn’t been the same pitcher the last two seasons after rising to the top of prospect rankings during a fantastic 2021 season. Evaluators have questions around the quality of his breaking balls and whether or not he has true front-of-the-rotation upside. It was a difficult major league debut for Rodriguez, who struggled with hard contact and at times command. All is not lost and there’s still real rotation projection here long term. That said, it’s hard not to question his place among the game’s best pitching prospects, many of whom have experienced success in the major leagues.

D.L. Hall, LHP, Orioles (Moved from No. 62 to No. 80)

The question of whether or not Hall remains a starter is yet to be answered. With each passing season it seems more and more likely that Hall ends up in the bullpen long term. There are few pitchers on the planet with Hall’s quality of stuff, but his ability to harness it over five to six innings looks like it may never materialize. With multiple plus offerings, Hall could be a valuable multi-inning reliever as soon as this summer for the Orioles, but for now will remain in the rotation looking to turn a corner with his command.

Robert Hassell (Moved from No. 50 to No. 99)

The question with Hassell remains the same: “where’s the impact?” While Hassell has shown the ability to get on base, there are real questions around his ability to hit for any impact. After starting the season on the injured list, he’s worked his way back to Double-A but has yet to hit a home run over his first 28 games and is running the highest strikeout rate of his career this year. He’s a solid player, but one has to question his star upside with the lack of impact hitting he’s shown.

Dropped Out

Elijah Green, OF, Nationals (Previous Rank: 80)

Scouts absolutely rave about Green’s athleticism and power potential. But pre-draft concerns about his ability to make consistent contact have come to fruition so far. Green’s 41% strikeout rate is simply unsustainable and will have to improve for him to reach his lofty ceiling.

Edwin Arroyo, SS (Previous Rank: 54)

It’s not hard to find evaluators who still believe in Arroyo’s ability to be a well-rounded shortstop. But his ability to hit for average and get on base has largely disappeared since he was traded to the Reds at last year’s deadline. After hitting 13 home runs with a .316 average in 87 games at Low-A Modesto, Arroyo has five home runs and a .226 average in 70 games as a Reds prospect.

Everson Pereira, OF, Yankees (Previous Rank: 79)

Pereira will tease with his potential, at times showing an excellent combination of power and speed with standout defense in center field. He shows a bit too much swing and miss at times, however, and has had serious trouble staying on the field. His first season of more than 100 games was in 2022, and even then he missed time at the end of the season as well as in the Eastern League playoffs with undisclosed injuries.

Alex Ramirez, OF, Mets (Previous Rank: 75)

Ramirez does a little bit of everything but has not truly excelled in any area in his time at High-A Brooklyn. At age 20, the center fielder has plenty of time to hit his way back onto the Top 100. Consistent effort has been an issue at times.

Ceddanne Rafaela, 2B/OF, Red Sox (Previous Rank: 70)

After a breakout season in 2022, Rafaela has struggled to replicate the same numbers this spring. While his defensive chops are unquestioned, his aggressive nature and fringe in-game power have led to questions around how much impact Rafaela has at the plate. A strong defender with baserunning acumen and bat-to-ball skills, Rafaela is a good prospect but the upside might be limited.

Gavin Cross, OF, Royals (Previous Rank: 85)

While the Midwest League is cold early in the season, top-10 draft picks aren’t supposed to struggle like this. Cross has begun to show his power stroke the last several weeks but the lack of approach is concerning, as Cross is chasing at an elevated rate. All is not lost for the Royals outfielder but improvements to his swing decisions will be imperative if he’s to be added back into the Top 100.

Connor Norby, 2B, Orioles (Previous Rank: 76)

The power gains Norby seemed to make in the second half of 2022 have all but disappeared in 2023 in Triple-A. So far this season Norby has produced a league average line at Triple-A, showing less impact and fringe swing decisions. With limited power projection and below-average on-base skills Norby looks like a hit tool-driven second base profile with limited upside.

Kevin Alcantara, OF, Cubs (Previous Rank: 72)

Alcantara has always been a tooled-up player, but his future has always come with plenty of risk as well. He struggled early in the Midwest League—not uncommon in that kind of weather—and had yet to hit for much in the way of either average or power. Issues with complex swing mechanics and overall swing decisions might be leading to those issues and have led to questions among scouts dating back to his Yankees days.