2023 NCAA Tournament Baton Rouge Super Regional Preview

Image credit: Jay Johnson (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Schedule

Saturday, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Sunday, TBD
Monday, TBD (If necessary)

??LSU

Coach: Jay Johnson

Postseason history: 16th super regional (first since 2021). Seeking 19th trip to the College World Series and first since 2017.

Postseason route: No. 1 seed in Baton Rouge Regional. Went 3-0, defeating Oregon State in regional final.

Scouting report (anonymous coach breaks down the Tigers)

“They’ve got a 90% chance of winning game 1, right? So, that makes it tough. Then you have to win just one of the next two and you win a series and that’s how super regionals are set up. Not only does Paul Skenes give you a great chance to win, sometimes he’s the only guy they use. So if they go into Sunday with a win and everybody else available to pitch, that’s a big deal. It sets you up to win.

Dylan Crews and Tommy White are two of the best hitters in America. Then they have a lot of other really good hitters throughout the lineup. They can score 10 on you and they have a 90% chance to win Saturday. Not to mention you have to do it down there. They lost one series at home. It’s just a great advantage to have a great team at home. Somebody can go win there but somebody has to go execute for two whole games to win a series. You’re going to have to get big plays, big hits.

“It’s a scary lineup. Them and Florida are the two best offensive lineups in the SEC. The two guys in the middle, one is the first overall pick in the draft and the other’s a bear. There’s a lot to be said for how difficult it is for a freshman transferring in, but White’s been an offensive force. You spend so much time focusing on them, but the other pieces can hurt you as well. They take good at-bats, they can walk, they can put up runs in a hurry.

“(How do you pitch to Crews?) You throw four balls and let him go to first base. That’s the simplest way because most likely he’s going to get two, three, four bases out of the at-bat. He handles everything. There’s a reason he’s most likely he’s the highest position player taken in the draft. He doesn’t have holes. It’s not like you can spin him to death or beat him in or beat him up. You have to mix him to death and let him get himself out.

“The team that has a chance against Skenes is going to have like six lefties in the lineup, in my opinion. The only guys that saw the ball halfway decent against him were lefthanded. You’ve got to be ready for 98 and it could be a slider. It’s the only two pitches he needs. If you have five or six real lefthanded hitters, that’s the kind of team that has a chance to string some stuff together. On top of that, it’s going to be the team that’s not just going to stand there and try to hit home runs. You have to manufacture some offense, whether it’s stealing a base or hitting and running. You’re not going to get four hits in an inning.

Ty Floyd’s the X factor. He’s got a good fastball-breaking ball combination. Obviously, the biggest factor is can you get five real good innings out of him? There’s enough left after that in the bullpen. Thatcher Hurd has a lot of talent, he has had some real good outings this year. The issues have been when the game’s gotten long and they’ve had to open up the bullpen. Getting a quality start out of him and Skenes looks really good with their offense.

“They’re an average defensive team, solid. You can tell the team is built around power on the mound and power threats at the plate. All the guys play their position solid. I didn’t feel like there were liabilities anywhere. I feel like the lineup is constructed with who the hot bats are and it makes a lot of sense. But that’s a team that’s improved defensively from last year. They didn’t do anything to hurt themselves against us.”

Projected Lineup

C: Hayden Travinski
1B: Tre’ Morgan
2B: Gavin Dugas
3B: Tommy White
SS: Jordan Thompson
LF: Josh Pearson
CF: Dylan Crews:
RF: Brayden Jobert
DH: Cade Beloso

SP: Paul Skenes
SP: Ty Floyd
SP: Riley Cooper
RP: Nate Ackenhausen
RP: Thatcher Hurd

Kentucky

Coach: Nick Mingione

Postseason history: Second super regional (first since 2017). Seeking first trip to the College World Series.

Postseason route: No. 1 seed in Lexington Regional. Went 4-1, defeating Indiana in regional final.

Scouting report (anonymous coach breaks down the Wildcats)

“They’re such a gritty club. They do everything well, everything from the short game to grinding out at-bats to stealing bases. On the mound, they throw strikes, they defend. What they’ve got going there is pretty special, the team belief that they have. They’re a well put together baseball team that competes very well together. They complement each other very well.

“Defensively, you have to be prepared for them. They’ll bunt in situations when most of the people in our league won’t and they’ll do a lot of things to make it difficult on pitchers. What they’re able to do is draw attention off the pitcher making pitches. When a pitcher gets distracted it makes it easier on the batter. If you’re not quick to the plate, they’ll exploit it. If you don’t defend the position well, they’ll exploit it. Is any one guy overly talented offensively? Probably not, but they make it difficult when you have to go one through nine. It makes it hard on the opposing pitcher.

“They’re strike-throwers. They’ve struck out a lot of hitters but when they get you defensive, they’re going to get you to put something in play without much authority. They’re working the count, they’re always in command. They’ve got several guys that have gone out and given them solid starts. They constantly mix and match and they won’t allow you to get to one pitcher. They’re not going to overexpose anyone on their staff.

“LSU has a huge advantage when they play at home. It’s tough to play there. That’s going to be a challenge, just the atmosphere and all those things. It’s good that they’ve been there once but this is going to be more hostile than it was in the regular season. It’s just different in the postseason.”

Projected Lineup

C: Devin Burkes
1B: Hunter Gilliam
2B: Emilien Pitre
3B: Jase Felker
SS: Grant Smith
LF: Ryan Waldschmidt
CF: Jackson Gray
RF: Nolan McCarthy
DH: Reuben Church

SP: Zack Lee
SP: Travis Smith
SP: Austin Strickland
RP: Mason Moore
RP: Darren Williams

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