2023 MLB Season Preview: National League West Division Preview
Image credit: Manny Machado (Photo by Adam Glanzman/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Team to Beat
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have won nine of the last 10 division titles and are coming off a 111-win season, but the gap between them and the rest of the division is narrowing. The archrival Giants won the division in 2021, and the Padres upset the Dodgers in the NL Division Series last year. The Dodgers have significant talent to replace after Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner and Tyler Anderson departed and Gavin Lux was lost for the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Still, the Dodgers’ organizational depth remains the best in MLB, and they have a long track record of seamlessly replacing injured or departed stars. The Dodgers boast the division’s best rotation by a wide margin and their lineup remains potent with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy and offseason signee J.D. Martinez. A rookie class led by Miguel Vargas, Bobby Miller, James Outman, Ryan Pepiot and Gavin Stone could be baseball’s best.
Top Player
Manny Machado, 3B, Padres
Machado has blossomed into one of MLB’s top players and the Padres’ clubhouse leader over the last three seasons. He hit .298/.366/.531 with 32 home runs, 107 RBIs and 100 runs scored last year while playing standout defense at third base and finished second in NL MVP voting. He was rewarded with an 11-year, $350 million extension in February, the fourth-largest contract in MLB history. The division is loaded with stars, including fellow Padres Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto and Dodgers standouts Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, but Machado is playing at the highest level of them all right now.
Top Pitcher
Julio Urias, LHP, Dodgers
Urias has quietly developed into the ace predicted since he was a teenager. He starred in the 2020 World Series, became a 20-game winner in 2021 and led the National League with a 2.16 ERA in 2022. His 37 wins are the most of any pitcher the last two seasons and his 2.57 ERA ranks third behind only future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. Fellow Dodgers lefthander Clayton Kershaw, Padres trio Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove, D-backs ace Zac Gallen and rising Giants standout Logan Webb are all top pitchers in their own right and make the NL West one of the best divisions for starting pitching.
Top Rookie
Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs
The 5-foot-10 Carroll has played bigger than his stature throughout his career and brings an electrifying skill set to the D-backs’ lineup. He’s one of the fastest players in baseball, has excellent pure contact skills from the left side and has sneaky power. He gave a preview of his ability last season by batting .260/.330/.500 with four home runs, 14 RBIs and 13 runs in 32 games in his MLB debut and has already staked his claim to a starting spot on Opening Day. He is the odds-on favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year. Arizona reinforced its faith in Carroll by signing him to an $111 million deal before the season.
Notable storylines
—Fernando Tatis Jr. missed all of last season after fracturing his wrist in a motorcycle accident and being suspended 80 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. He hasn’t played a regular-season game in a year and a half, had two wrist surgeries and a shoulder surgery last year and is switching positions from shortstop to right field. How quickly he recaptures his previous superstar form—or if he does at all—will go a long way toward determining the Padres’ fortune.
—The Dodgers’ ability to seamlessly replace departed stars has been a hallmark of their dominant 10-year run, but even they will be challenged to replace the talent they’ve lost over last two years. Corey Seager, Kenley Jansen and Max Scherzer all left after the 2021 season. Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner and Tyler Anderson all left last offseason. The Dodgers have the talent and resources to contend regardless, but they also have more question marks than any time in recent years. Los Angeles heads into 2023 with imported veterans in their mid 30s—J.D. Martinez, David Peralta and Miguel Rojas—holding lineup spots.
—The D-backs are starting to emerge from their rebuild and feature one of the most exciting collections of young talent in MLB. Corbin Carroll, offseason trade acquisition Gabriel Moreno, outfielders Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy and righthanders Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson all made their debuts last season and are set to assume larger roles in 2023. Righthander Brandon Pfaadt should join them soon to give the D-backs another powerful young arm, while shortstop Jordan Lawlar, outfielder Druw Jones and third baseman Deyvison De Los Santos headline the next wave making its way through the minors. After three straight losing seasons and six years without a playoff appearance, the D-backs’ fortunes should begin to turn.
Top 10 Prospects
By Top 100 Prospects ranking
2. Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs
12. Gabriel Moreno, C, D-backs
13. Jordan Lawlar, SS, D-backs
17. Ezequiel Tovar, RHP, Rockies
18. Diego Cartaya, C, Dodgers
21. Bobby Miller, RHP, Dodgers
22. Jackson Merrill, SS, Padres
24. Druw Jones, OF, D-backs
27. Brandon Pfaadt, OF, D-backs
30. Miguel Vargas, 3B, Dodgers
DODGERS
Overall BA Grade: 70
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
RF Mookie Betts 75
1B Freddie Freeman 70
C Will Smith 60
DH J.D. Martinez 50
3B Max Muncy 50
LF Chris Taylor 50
CF Trayce Thompson 45
2B Miguel Vargas 45
SS Miguel Rojas 45
ON DECK: James Outman was one of the top hitters at Triple-A last season and should get an extended look in the Dodgers’ aged outfield.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
LH Julio Urias 70
LH Clayton Kershaw 70
RH Tony Gonsolin 55
RH Noah Syndergaard 50
RH Dustin May 50
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Daniel Hudson 50
RP Evan Phillips 50
RP Alex Vesia 50
WARMING UP: The Dodgers’ outstanding depth is on standby, particularly Top 100 Prospects Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot and Gavin Stone.
CRYSTAL BALL
Dustin May will flourish as a starter in his second year back from Tommy John surgery and make his first
All-Star Game appearance.
PADRES
Overall BA Grade: 70
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
RF Fernando Tatis Jr. 70
LF Juan Soto 70
3B Manny Machado 75
SS Xander Bogaerts 70
1B Jake Cronenworth 55
DH Matt Carpenter 50
2B Ha-Seong Kim 50
C Austin Nola 45
CF Trent Grisham 45
ON DECK: Catcher Luis Campusano has cups of coffee in each of the past three seasons. With Austin Nola constantly battling injuries, this could be the season the 24-year-old seizes an MLB role.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
RH Yu Darvish 70
LH Blake Snell 60
RH Joe Musgrove 60
RH Michael Wacha 45
RH Nick Martinez 45
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Josh Hader 60
RP Robert Suarez 50
RP Luis Garcia 45
WARMING UP: The Padres need their top pitchers to deliver, because their depth—including Jay Groome, Reiss Knehr and Ryan Weathers—is shaky.
CRYSTAL BALL
With the addition of Xander Bogaerts, the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. and a bounceback year from Juan Soto, the Padres will lead the NL in runs scored.
D-BACKS
Overall BA Grade: 45
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
CF Corbin Carroll 55
2B Ketel Marte 55
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 50
1B Christian Walker 50
DH Evan Longoria 45
3B Josh Rojas 45
RF Jake McCarthy 45
C Carson Kelly 45
SS Nick Ahmed 45
ON DECK: Young catcher Gabriel Moreno has a path to regular reps, while 20-year-old shortstop Jordan Lawlar could hit his way to MLB.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
RH Zac Gallen 65
RH Merrill Kelly 50
LH Madison Bumgarner 45
RH Zach Davies 45
RH Ryne Nelson 45
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Mark Melancon 50
RP Joe Mantiply 50
RP Kevin Ginkel 45
WARMING UP: The D-backs are stocked with MLB-ready arms, including Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson and a few powerful bullpen arms.
CRYSTAL BALL
Fueled by their young core, the D-backs will post their first winning season since 2019 and contend for a National League wild card spot.
GIANTS
Overall BA Grade: 40
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
1B LaMonte Wade Jr. 45
2B Thairo Estrada 45
DH Joc Pederson 55
LF Michael Conforto 50
RF Mitch Haniger 55
SS Brandon Crawford 50
CF Mike Yastrzemski 50
3B David Villar 45
C Joey Bart 40
ON DECK: David Villar demolished Triple-A pitching last season and popped nine homers for the Giants. The 26-year-old has real opportunity.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
RH Logan Webb 60
RH Alex Cobb 50
LH Sean Manaea 50
RH Ross Stripling 45
LH Alex Wood 45
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Camilo Doval 55
RP Taylor Rogers 50
RP Tyler Rogers 45
WARMING UP: Heralded lefthander Kyle Harrison struck out nearly 40% of batters last season, primarily at Double-A. His debut is not far off.
CRYSTAL BALL
David Villar will continue to improve with everyday playing time and emerge as one of the better hitters in the Giants’ lineup.
ROCKIES
Overall BA Grade: 30
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
LF Jurickson Profar 45
RF Kris Bryant 60
DH Charlie Blackmon 50
1B C.J. Cron 50
2B Ryan McMahon 50
3B Elehuris Montero 45
SS Ezequiel Tovar 45
CF Yonathan Daza 45
C Elias Diaz 40
ON DECK: The Rockies’ farm system is rising, but most of its best hitters, including Zac Veen, need at least another year in the minors.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
RH German Marquez 55
LH Kyle Freeland 50
RH Antonio Senzatela 50
RH Jose Ureña 45
LH Austin Gomber 40
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Daniel Bard 55
RP Dinelson Lamet 45
RP Pierce Johnson 40
WARMING UP: The Rockies have a few bullpen arms who could factor, but starters like Gabriel Hughes and Jordy Vargas are years away.
CRYSTAL BALL
Second baseman Ryan McMahon will have a bounceback season after a difficult 2022 and represent the Rockies
in the All-Star Game.
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