2023 MLB Midseason Review: Surprises, Disappointments, Best And Worst Players And Second-Half Callups To Watch
Image credit: Shohei Ohtani (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Believe it or not, the halfway point of the 2023 season has arrived. Nineteen of the 30 teams have played at least 81 games, and the other 11 are all within two games of reaching that point.
The first half of the season has been a wild one, with plenty of early-season surprises, a chase for .400, exhilarating prospect callups and a quicker, more action-packed brand of baseball as part of the offseason rules changes.
Here is a midseason review of the first half of the year, and what to watch for as the second half gets underway,
The Storyline That Will Define The Second Half
The single greatest factor that will affect the rest of the season is not whether Shohei Ohtani gets traded (trending toward no) or if the Mets, Cardinals and other disappointing teams decide to tear down and flood the trade market (trending toward yes).
It’s how older teams will hold up with the new rules changes.
The average nine-inning game this year has lasted 2 hours, 38 minutes through Thursday. That’s a decrease of 26 minutes from last year’s average game time of 3:04. While games are shorter, the pace of action has been significantly greater. Stolen base attempts have increased by 23%, the number of balls in play is roughly the same in less time, restrictions on infield shifts have forced defenders to cover more ground and the pitch clock has given pitchers less time to recover in between pitches.
Two theories are being bandied about in front offices right now, with no one sure which one will prove correct.
Theory 1: The shorter game times, and resulting less time on the field, will help older teams be better rested and stay strong through the second half.
Theory 2: The increased pace of play will wear older teams down as the summer progresses and allow younger teams to flourish.
So far, there hasn’t been much correlation between age and success. The six teams with the youngest average batters are the Royals, Rays, Guardians, Nationals, Reds and D-backs—three of baseball’s best offenses and three of the worst. The five oldest teams in terms of average batter age are the Dodgers, Marlins, Mets, Rockies, Yankees and Padres—one of baseball’s best offenses, three middling ones and two bad ones.
The same holds true of pitchers. The teams with the six youngest average age of pitchers are the Guardians, Marlins, Reds, Dodgers, Mariners and Angels—three of baseball’s best pitching staffs, two middling ones and one of the worst. The teams with the six oldest pitching staffs by average age are the Mets, Red Sox, Padres, Giants, Blue Jays and Rangers—two of baseball’s best pitching staffs, two solid ones and two bad ones.
How much that changes, and whether either theory proves correct, will be the top trend to watch in the second half. Nothing, including any one injury or the trade of any one player, will have a greater effect on the pennant races.
And now, the best and worst of the first half:
The Surprises
1. D-backs
Where they stand: 48-34, first in NL West
What’s working? A trendy surprise pick before the season, the D-backs have a young, athletic offense taking full advantage of this year’s rules changes. They are tied for the highest contact rate in MLB, have the third-lowest strikeout rate, rank third in stolen bases and have the highest percentage of extra bases taken on hits of any team. They put the ball in play and run the bases aggressively to put pressure on defenses, a formula that has helped them rank second in the NL in scoring.
Is it sustainable? Potentially. D-backs starters have a 4.69 ERA, 22nd in MLB. They still have talent in their farm system even after the graduations of OF Corbin Carroll and C Gabriel Moreno, so if they can successfully leverage those prospects in trades for starting pitching, that should be enough with their kinetic offense to help them reach the postseason for the first time since 2017.
2. Rangers
Where they stand: 49-32, first in AL West
What’s working? The Rangers have the best and deepest lineup in baseball. Eight different players are batting at least .260 with an OPS over .800, ranging from established stars like 2B Marcus Semien and SS Corey Seager to young breakouts like OF Leody Taveras and OF/SS Ezequiel Duran. The Rangers lead the majors in hits, runs, batting average and on-base percentage and don’t have an easy out anywhere in their lineup. On top of that, Rangers starters have a 3.51 ERA, second-lowest in MLB, despite RHP Jacob deGrom making only six starts before going down with a torn UCL.
Is it sustainable? Yes. The Rangers offense has both the star power and depth to keep pounding opponents into submission. They need bullpen help (4.37 ERA, 24th in MLB), but with a deep, talented farm system, they should be able to acquire whatever help they need at the deadline. Barring a catastrophic run of injuries, the Rangers should cruise to their first playoff appearance since 2016.
3. Marlins
Where they stand: 48-34, second in NL East
What’s working? The Marlins have successfully churned out pitchers for years and rank in the top 10 in MLB in ERA (3.85), strikeouts (776), WHIP (1.24) and opponent average (.238). What’s different is they finally have an offense that can make contact. Led by 2B Luis Arraez, the Marlins are batting .262 with a 21.7% strikeout rate—the franchise’s best marks since 2017, when Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and J.T. Realmuto were in the lineup.
Is it sustainable? Maybe. The pitching staff is capable of continuing to hold opponents down—especially once reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara rounds into form—but the Marlins need power upgrades to bolster an offense that ranks 23rd in both home runs and scoring. With not much left in the farm system, it’s likely going to have to come from internal improvements from players like OF Jazz Chisholm and OF Jesus Sanchez, who are both back after missing time with injuries.
4. Giants
Where they stand: 45-36, second in NL West
What’s working? An influx of young talent led by C Patrick Bailey, SS/3B Casey Schmitt and OF Luis Matos has injected life into the Giants and helped them go 17-8 in June, a run that has catapulted them from a .500 record to the second NL wild card spot. While no individual in their lineup meets the definition of a star, eight different players who contribute at least semi-regularly have an OPS above .750.
Is it sustainable? Unlikely. The Giants have only three healthy starting pitchers at the moment. They’ve committed the most errors in the majors (59) and are tied for the third-most unearned runs allowed (36). Most of their top offensive performers are prime candidates for regression and their young rookies will face the inevitable ups and downs as the league adjusts to them. This has all the signs of a team that had a hot month but will eventually fall back to Earth.
5. Reds
Where they stand: 43-38, first in NL Central
What’s working? The promotions of SS/3B Elly De La Cruz, SS/2B Matt McLain and LHP Andrew Abbott have reinvigorated the Reds and transformed them into one of baseball’s most exciting teams. Combined with a strong rookie campaign from 1B/OF Spencer Steer and breakout seasons from OF Jake Fraley and OF TJ Friedl, the Reds rank seventh in the majors in scoring and are 22-9 in their last 31 games. That offensive infusion has been enough to make up for a rotation that owns a 5.91 ERA, third-worst in the majors.
Is it sustainable? Maybe, but only because the rest of the NL Central is a disaster. The Brewers can’t hit. The Cardinals are a mess. The Pirates have regressed after their hot start. The Cubs haven’t had a winning record at any point since May 6. The Reds need serious rotation help at the trade deadline, but they have the young infielders and prospect depth to make multiple trades to get the arms they need.
The Disappointments
1. Mets
Where they stand: 36-45, fourth in NL East
What’s the problem? Where to start? The Mets rank 24th in the majors with a 4.57 ERA, a product of their paper-thin pitching depth exposed by injuries to RHP Justin Verlander, RHP Max Scherzer and RHP Edwin Diaz. Expected standouts 1B Pete Alonso (.221), SS Francisco Lindor (.221), 2B Jeff McNeil (.253) and OF Starling Marte (.255) have all underperformed. The defense has been a disaster over the past month with an MLB-high 22 errors since June began. Despite a record $330 million Opening Day payroll, the Mets have been deficient in all aspects—offense, defense and pitching.
Is it fixable? To a degree. Alonso, Lindor, McNeil and Marte are all better than they’ve shown and should improve. The defense can’t possibly be as bad as it’s been this month, and the fact the Mets actually had the fewest errors in MLB through the end of May is a strong indicator the struggles won’t last. But the organization’s lack of pitching depth is an acute issue that won’t be solved easily, especially given the lack of top prospects the Mets have in their farm system to trade. Things should get better, but not enough to make up the 17.5-game deficit in the division and nine-game deficit in the NL wild card race.
2. Cardinals
Where they stand: 33-47, fifth in NL Central
What’s the problem? The Cardinals have multiple issues, but the pitching staff has been the biggest of all. Cardinals starters own a 4.96 ERA and have allowed opponents to hit .295—yes, .295—against them. The bullpen has blown 16 saves, tied for the most in MLB. The Cardinals are tied with the Nationals for the third-lowest swinging strike rate in MLB and have allowed the third-most hits of any team. In short, they’re a hittable staff that doesn’t miss bats, and their defense hasn’t helped. The Cardinals rank 21st in Outs Above Average, as measured by Statcast, with the outfield defense a particular problem area.
Is it fixable? Not likely. The Cardinals have talent in their farm system, but not enough to give them four new starters, an entirely new bullpen and a wholly reconstructed outfield defense. Even in a terrible division, the Cardinals are 9.5 games out of first place and have no clear path to meaningfully improving this year with the players they have in-house. A deadline selloff to add talented arms to the organization is likely the best course of action.
3. Padres
Where they stand: 37-44, fourth in NL West
What’s the problem? The Padres are batting .233, 23rd in MLB. They are hitting .207 with runners in scoring position, worst in MLB. They are getting well below-average offensive production from four positions in the lineup—catcher, first base, center field and DH—effectively nullifying the production from their stars at the top of the order. They Padres have other issues, namely a lack of rotation depth and a thin middle relief corps, but the lack of offense is the primary source of their struggles.
Is it fixable? Possibly. 3B Manny Machado (.248/.291/.399) and 1B Jake Cronenworth (.208/.310/.346) won’t keep hitting as poorly as they have been. The nearing return of C Luis Campusano from thumb surgery could bolster the catching situation. But even with those improvements, the Padres would still have a bottom-half offense. To get the kind of offensive upgrades they need, they’ll likely have to deal from the top of the farm system, moving one or multiple of SS Jackson Merrill, RHP Dylan Lesko, C Ethan Salas and LHP Robby Snelling, all Top 100 Prospects.
4. White Sox
Where they stand: 36-47, fourth in AL Central
What’s the problem? Aside from OF Luis Robert, the White Sox’s swell of young talent has stagnated. 1B Andrew Vaughn, 3B Yoan Moncada, OF Eloy Jimenez, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Dylan Cease and RHP Michael Kopech have all taken steps back from their best seasons—or not taken a step forward at all—and 3B Jake Burger, OF Gavin Sheets and RHP Reynaldo Lopez have been limited in their contributions. Add in career-worst seasons from veterans like SS Tim Anderson and RHP Lance Lynn, and almost no one is playing up to par on the South Side.
Is it fixable? Probably not. The team’s previous underperformance was blamed on former manager Tony La Russa, but it’s clear the organization’s issues run deeper than just him. White Sox hitters have the highest chase rate in MLB and their pitchers have the second-highest walk rate in MLB. Whether it’s an issue in player development or major league coaching philosophy, the White Sox’s best players have been regressing for years, and there is little reason to believe they will all suddenly and simultaneously turn it around.
5. Mariners
Where they stand: 38-41, fourth in AL West
What’s the problem? The Mariners offense is striking out en masse. The Mariners have struck out 771 times this season, third-most in MLB and an average of nearly 10 punchouts per game. OF Teoscar Hernandez, OF Jarred Kelenic and 3B Eugenio Suarez all rank in the top 10 in strikeouts this season, with OF Julio Rodriguez not far behind. Largely because of those strikeout issues, the Mariners are batting .229, tied for third-worst in MLB, and rank in the bottom 10 of almost every offensive category.
Is it fixable? It’ll be tough. Even among the players not near the league lead in strikeouts, offseason additions DH A.J. Pollock (.155) and 2B Kolten Wong (.162) have been two of the worst offensive performers in baseball. There are a lot of lineup holes to fill and not much help coming from a shallow farm system, either through direct contributions or trades. The seriousness of the offense’s shortcomings has been particularly exposed against good teams; the Mariners are 13-26 against teams with .500 or better records.
The First-Half Studs
Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Angels
At the plate, Ohtani is batting a career-best .309 and leads the majors in home runs, total bases, slugging percentage and OPS. On the mound, he is 7-3, 3.02, ranks third in the majors with 127 strikeouts and is holding opposing hitters to a .180 batting average, lowest in the majors. He is, by virtue of his performance, simultaneously the single-most dangerous hitter in baseball and the single-hardest pitcher to hit in baseball. It’s a level of dominance that exceeds even his prior feats, and has once again redefined what is possible at baseball’s highest level.
Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, Braves
Acuña wasn’t quite himself in his return from a torn ACL last year. Now that he’s back to full strength, he’s taken over as the National League’s most dominant player. Acuna ranks second in the majors in batting average (.331), OPS (.993) and total bases (189), leads the majors in runs scored and has a real chance at a 40-40 season with 19 homers and 36 stolen bases through the Braves’ first 80 games. He’s done that while ranking second in the NL in both putouts and assists from right field, cementing his status as a true, five-tool talent and the game’s most well-rounded player.
Shane McClanahan, LHP, Rays
McClanahan was on his way to the American League Cy Young Award last year before a shoulder injury sidetracked him down the stretch. He’s now back in front of the AL Cy Young Award race this season. McClanahan is 11-1 with a major league-leading 2.23 ERA for the Rays, continuing a two-year run of dominance that isn’t getting appropriate attention. Among pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched since the start of last season, none have a lower ERA than McClanahan’s 2.43.
Others: Luis Arraez, 2B, Marlins; Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers; Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees; Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs; Framber Valdez, Astros; Bryce Elder, RHP, Braves; Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays; Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs; Yandy Diaz, 1B, Rays.
The First-Half Duds
Jordan Lyles, RHP, Royals
When the Royals signed Lyles to a two-year, $17 million contract in the offseason, it was a curious decision to say the least. He had a 5.10 ERA in his career and was consistently one of baseball’s most homer-prone pitchers. Unsurprisingly, the signing has been a disaster. Lyles is 1-11, 6.68 in 16 starts for the Royals and has allowed the most earned runs of any pitcher in MLB. Out of 69 qualified starters, Lyles ranks dead last in ERA, second-to-last in home runs allowed and 63rd in strikeouts. The Royals began the year 0-15 in games started by Lyles before finally winning his last start on June 24.
Javier Baez, SS, Tigers
If not for Stephen Strasburg, Baez would easily have the mantle of worst contract in baseball. Baez is batting .224/.261/.329 with five home runs this season and has been a liability in every aspect. His .590 OPS ranks 153rd out of 154 qualified hitters, his 11 errors are tied for third-most in MLB and his six outs made on the bases are tied for second-most in MLB. The worst part for the Tigers? Baez still has four years and $98 million remaining on his contract after this year.
Shea Langeliers, C, Athletics
Langeliers has been the best of the A’s trade return for Matt Olson, which is indicative of just how poorly the A’s fared in the deal. Out of 154 qualified hitters in MLB, Langeliers is tied for the second-lowest batting average (.198), tied for last in on-base percentage (.263) and has the fourth-worst OPS (.617). It would be bad even if he was a defensive standout, but he’s not. Langeliers is tied for the most errors of any catcher in the American League and ranks 59th out of 60 qualified catchers in framing, as measured by Statcast. On both sides of the ball, Langeliers has simply been one of the worst players in baseball.
Others: Lance Lynn, RHP, White Sox; Willy Adames, SS, Brewers; Brady Singer, RHP, Royals; Jose Abreu, 1B, Astros; Zack Greinke, C, Royals; Willson Contreras, C, Cardinals; Jake Cronenworth, 1B, Padres; Kikè Hernandez, SS/OF, Red Sox; Rafael Montero, RHP, Astros; Alex Call, OF, Nationals.
Teams Poised To Dominate The Draft
Pirates
The Pirates hold the No. 1 pick in one of the best drafts in years and have the largest bonus pool of any team at $16,185,700. With their choice of LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, LSU righthander Paul Skenes and Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford at the top and plenty of bonus pool space to go overslot at Nos. 42, 67 and 73, the Pirates have a chance to bring in a franchise-altering draft class if they execute.
Tigers
The Tigers are in desperate need of a talent infusion, and this year’s draft offers them the chance to get it. They have the second-largest bonus pool in the draft at $15,747,200 and three of the top 50 picks, including a chance to get a premium player at No. 3. With a guaranteed opportunity to draft at least one of Crews, Skenes and Langford and both the pool money and picks to grab premium talent later in the draft, the Tigers are in prime position to reinvigorate their shallow talent pipeline.
Mariners
The Mariners are the first beneficiaries of the Prospect Promotion Initiative after Julio Rodriguez made their Opening Day roster last year and won the AL Rookie of the Year Award. Combined with their own pick and a competitive balance pick, they have three of the top 30 picks in the draft at Nos. 22, 29 and 30. They also have the seventh-largest bonus pool despite making the playoffs last year, giving them a golden opportunity to boost a homegrown talent pipeline hollowed out by graduations and trades.
Three Teams Poised To Own The Trade Deadline
Dodgers
Once again, the Dodgers have far and away the deepest farm system in baseball. To put it in perspective, lefthander Ben Harris is averaging nearly 15 strikeouts per nine innings at Double-A Tulsa and can’t even crack their Top 30 Prospects. The Dodgers are particularly deep in the two areas teams desire most, pitchers and catchers, and have the combination of young big leaguers and top prospects to acquire any player they desire.
Orioles
The Dodgers have the deepest farm system in baseball, but the Orioles aren’t far behind. The Orioles are particularly deep in young infielders, and while rookie third baseman Gunnar Henderson and rising young shortstop Jackson Hollidayaren’t going anywhere, they can still offer any combination of infielders Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and Joey Ortiz to lead a package for an impact starting pitcher without sacrificing their long-term outlook.
Rangers
The Rangers not only have the second-best record in the AL, but they have quietly assembled one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. They are particularly deep in prospect infielders, and with Nate Lowe, Marcus Semien, Corey Seagerand Josh Jung all under contract or team control through at least 2026, the Rangers have plenty of ammunition to make upgrades at the deadline.
Prospect Callups To Watch
As Elly De La Cruz, Eury Perez, Matt McLain, Bobby Miller and others have reinforced this year, midseason callups can completely alter their teams’ fortunes through an infusion of talent, energy or both.
Here are five prospects to watch who could provide a similar jolt with a second-half callup.
1. Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles—The fifth overall pick in 2021, Cowser is batting .330/.457/.546 with 10 home runs and 40 RBIs in 54 games at Triple-A Norfolk. The Orioles don’t need outfield help with Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander all performing, but if an injury hits, Cowser is primed to take over.
2. Sal Frelick, OF, Brewers—Frelick missed nearly two months after having surgery to repair a torn UCL in his thumb, but he’s back and playing at Triple-A Nashville. He’s still shaking off the rust and rounding into form, but once he does, his elite hitting ability will be a boon to a Brewers offense that has the second-fewest hits of any team in the majors, ahead of only the A’s.
3. Colt Keith, 3B, Tigers—The No. 26 prospect on the BA Top 100, Keith has hit .331/.399/.594 with 15 home runs and 52 RBIs in 61 games between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo. He recently earned his promotion to Triple-A and, with the Tigers’ Lake Michigan-sized hole at third base, the lefthanded slugger has a chance to hit his way to the majors in short order.
4. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, Reds – The Reds have already gotten an influx of prospect talent, and they have more to pull from if they need. Encarnacion-Strand has hit .326/.399/.634 with 17 home runs and 52 RBIs in 55 games at Triple-A Louisville. He’s one of the best bad-ball hitters in the minors and has progressively cut down on his strikeouts, making him an appealing option if injuries hit and the opportunity arises.
5. Dominic Canzone, OF, D-backs—Canzone isn’t a Top 100 prospect, but he’s always hit and is having one of the best seasons in the minor leagues. Canzone is batting .350/.427/.650 with 16 home runs and 67 RBIs in 65 games at Triple-A Reno and ranks third in the minors with a 1.077 OPS. Even in the context of playing at Reno and in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, it’s been a banner season. No other prospect in the PCL is within 75 points of his OPS, and his 145 wRC+ is fifth-highest of any player 25 or younger in Triple-A. The D-backs have an offensive hole in right field, and Canzone has the bat to potentially fill it.
