2023 MLB Farm System Statcast Hitting Rankings

Image credit: Michael Busch (Photo by Eddie Kelly)

For the first time, Baseball America is measuring performance based on underlying metrics via the Hawkeye data gathered across the minor leagues.

The benefit of using this data versus other statistical analysis is, presumably, we’re able to remove the higher degree of variance that impacts in-game performance numbers and instead measure skill across organizations. A 110-mph line drive caught in the outfield is more indicative of future success than a 65-mph ground ball that finds a hole through the infield, even if one counts as a hit statistically and the other is an out.

Statcast Pitching Rankings

Here’s our corresponding ranking of the top minor league farm systems in terms of Statcast pitching data.

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Our Methodology

In order to calculate an all-encompassing number across a variety of metrics, we used weighted on base average (wOBA) as a baseline and built our “Hit Score” based on each metrics correlation to wOBA. Our ultimate goal was to weight each input for its importance or correlation to wOBA. Below, you will see the metric we created called Hit Score. This number measures production versus the average in a similar fashion to weighted Runs Created (wRC+) moving up and down from the average score of 100.

All metrics are based around each player’s plate appearances. So if one player has a 110-mph 90th percentile exit velocity, but only 100 plate appearances, his contribution to the organization’s 90th percentile exit velocity metric will be one-fifth as much as a player with a 100-mph 90th percentile exit velocity and 500 plate appearances. The same is true of chase rates and the other measurements.

One important note: this initial Hit Score+ does not consider age as one of the inputs. We know that older hitters should score higher in these metrics than younger hitters. Partly, that is because of physical maturation, but even more it’s based around skill development. As hitters age, they improve. This puts younger systems at a disadvantage when looking at this metric. In order to consider the impact on age, we created a second metric that factors in age to the hit score.

Midseason Talent Rankings

See where all 30 farm systems ranked midway through the season in our organizational talent rankings.

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Below you will see the hit score and adjusted hit score for all 30 major league organizations. This number is factoring in exit velocity data, launch angle data, contact data and approach data. It is a variety of metrics you’re familiar with from Baseball Savant and Statcast.

The Hit Score+ is listed in order of production. It has been normalized so 100 is average, and higher numbers are better than lower numbers. A 110 Hit Score+ means the organization’s hit score is 10% above league average, where 90 would be 10% below league average.

Age Adjusted Hit Score+ tries to take an organization’s Hit Score+ and weight it by age, using three years of MiLB hitting metric data grouped by age to account for how hitters improve in many of these metrics with added age and experience. A LOESS smoothing technique — which was actually suggested by ChatGPT — was used to develop a fitted curve to the Hit+ data. It showed hitters rapidly improving in these metrics as they went from 17 to 23. After 23, those numbers largely stabilize before dropping off gradually for players in their late 20s.

While the MLB aging curve usually peaks at age 27 for hitters, the minors are somewhat different. Since the top players continue to graduate to the majors, the production curve in the minors flattens and then tails off at younger ages.

We created a nomalized Hit+ score, an expected Hit+ score (based on the weighted age for the organization), and then an age adjusted Hit+ Score, which was then normalized so 100 is league average.

The Age Adjustment did not dramatically change the results, but it did lead to some teams moving up or down a few spots when compared to their non-adjusted Hit Score+. The table is sorted by Age Adjusted Hit Score +.